1 Introduction
2 Literature Review
3 Methods
3.1 Building Permit Data Cleaning
3.2 Tabular Statistical and Simple Spatial Analyses
3.2.1 Chi-square Hypothesis
3.3 Spatiotemporal Analysis Using SaTScan™
3.3.1 SaTScan™ Space-Time Permutation Model Hypotheses
3.4 Space-Time Cluster Data Fit to the Kates Recovery Model
4 Results
4.1 Descriptive Statistical Analysis and Chi-square
Row 1: 2011–2020 permit count, % of type total, cumulative % of type total, % of N Row 2: X2, p, In/Out of damage zone > (G) or < (L) Mp10 (the 10-year pre-disaster mean) (N = 4925) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
n M | Residential (n = 1721) Mp10 In, 37, Out, 135 | Commercial (n = 170) Mp10 In, 15, Out, 35 | Roof repair (n = 1366) Mp10 In, 56, Out, 90 | Demolition (n = 1668) Mp10 In, 19, Out, 64 |
2011 | 370, 21.5, 21.5, 7.5 122.97, < 0.001*, G, G | 36, 21.2, 21.2, 0.7, 30.56, < 0.001*, G, L | 1045, 76.5, 76.5, 21.2 146.76, < 0.001*, G, G | 1310, 78.5, 78.5, 26.6 517.01, < 0.001*, G, G |
2012 | 427, 24.8, 46.3, 8.7 189.31, < 0.001*, G, L | 40, 23.5, 44.7, 0.8 16.31, < 0.001*, G, L | 59, 4.3, 80.8, 1.2 7.02, 0.008*, G, L | 184, 11.0, 89.6, 3.7 69.88, < 0.001*, G, L |
2013 | 166, 9.6, 56.0, 3.4 112.50, < 0.001*, G, L | 34, 20.0, 64.7, 0.7 10.03, 0.002*, G, L | 18, 1.3, 82.1, 0.4 2.68, 0.102, L, L | 56, 3.4, 92.9, 1.1 16.06, < 0.001*, G, L |
2014 | 173, 10.1 66.0, 3.5 135.31, < 0.001*, G, L | 15, 8.8, 73.5, 0.3 4.21, 0.040*, G, L | 8, 0.6, 82.7, 0.2 17.66, < 0.001*, L, L | 46, 2.8, 95.7, 0.9 9.58, 0.002*, G, L |
2015 | 158, 9.2, 75.2, 3.2 105.60, < 0.001*, G, L | 18, 10.6, 84.1, 0.4 6.96, 0.008*, G, L | 8, 0.6, 83.3, 0.2 14.84, < 0.001*, L, L | 22, 1.3, 97.0, 0.4 4.03, 0.045*, G, L |
2016 | 97, 5.6, 80.8, 2.0 70.75, < 0.001*, G, L | 6, 3.5, 87.6, 0.1 0.055, 0.815, L, L | 22, 1.6, 84.9, 0.4 12.46, < 0.001*, L, G | 12, 0.7, 97.7, 0.2 0.0006, 0.980, L, L |
2017 | 85, 4.9, 85.8, 1.7 30.74, < 0.001*, G, L | 9, 5.3, 92.9, 0.2 0.0908, 0.763, L, L | 39, 2.9, 87.8, 0.8 43.23, < 0.001*, L, G† | 8, 0.5, 98.2, 0.2 1.46, 0.226, L, L |
2018 | 80, 4.6, 90.4, 1.6 25.54, < 0.001*, G, L | 5, 2.9, 95.9, 0.1 5.20, 0.023, L, L | 36, 2.6, 90.4, 0.7 44.08, < 0.001*, L, G† | 12, 0.7, 98.9, 0.2 0.26, 0.607, L, L |
2019 | 93, 5.4, 95.8, 1.9 19.65, < 0.001*, G, L | 4, 2.4, 98.2, 0.1 – | 67, 4.9, 95.3, 1.4 15.66, < 0.001*, G, G† | 6, 0.4, 99.3, 0.1 0.47, 0.306, L, L |
2020 | 58, 3.4, 99.2, 1.2 3.02, 0.082, G, G | 2, 1.2, 99.4, 0.1 – | 54, 4.0, 99.3, 1.1 18.40, < 0.001*, L, G† | 11, 0.7, 99.9, 0.2 0.53, 0.478, L, L |
4.2 Space-Time Cluster Analysis
SaTScan™ Cluster | Timeframe | Points in Cluster | Radius (mi2.) | Test Statistic | Monte Carlo Rank | p |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Residential building Permits | ||||||
1 | 2011–2020 | 76 | 0.50 | 26.25 | 1/1000 | < 0.001 |
2 | 2012–2019 | 48 | 0.22 | 17.74 | 1/1000 | < 0.001 |
3 | 2012–2014 | 175 | 0.55 | 17.51 | 1/1000 | < 0.001 |
4 | 2011–2016 | 103 | 0.42 | 17.22 | 3/1000 | 0.002 |
5 | 2017–2019 | 11 | 0.03 | 10.54 | 3/1000 | 0.003 |
6 | 2011–2017 | 149 | 0.30 | 10.49 | 3/1000 | 0.003 |
7 | 2011–2020 | 16 | 0.10 | 10.26 | 3/1000 | 0.004 |
Commercial building Permits | ||||||
1 | 2013 | 8 | 0.12 | 9.21 | 11/1000 | 0.011 |
Roof repair building Permits | ||||||
1 | 2011–2012 | 109 | 0.56 | 14.82 | 1/1000 | < 0.001 |
2 | 2011–2019 | 44 | 0.31 | 9.17 | 1/1000 | 0.020 |
3 | 2011–2013 | 65 | 0.09 | 8.19 | 45/1000 | 0.045 |
4 | 2011–2020 | 32 | 0.10 | 7.90 | 97/1000 | 0.046 |
Demolition Permits | ||||||
1 | 2011–2020 | 50 | 0.64 | 21.94 | 1/1000 | < 0.001 |
2 | 2011–2013 | 644 | 1.53 | 11.47 | 1/1000 | < 0.001 |
3 | 2011–2019 | 12 | 0.28 | 9.67 | 3/1000 | 0.007 |
4 | 2011–2012 | 194 | 0.57 | 4.56 | 9/1000 | 0.009 |