Strategies for a CO2-optimal propulsion mix – life cycle analysis based on the FVV Fuels Studies IV and IV b

“FVV Fuels Study IV” (published in 2021) provided a comprehensive analysis of different powertrain technologies and energy pathways for the European transport sector, all of which are exclusively based on renewable energy sourcing through wind and solar power generation capacities, with regards to their overall infrastructure requirement, costs and associated “Well-to-Wheel” (WtW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The study concluded that overall cumulated GHG emissions vary much less across different technology pathways (e.g. electric vehicles vs. vehicles with combustion engines operated with carbon-neutral fuels) than typically expected. In fact, the “ramp-up” speed of deploying GHG-neutral mobility solutions is much more important than the choice of technologies itself, since the majority of GHG emissions is caused by the phase-out of the vehicle legacy fleet which is still operated with fossil energy carriers. Therefore, the faster defossilised vehicle operation can be introduced, the lower are the cumulated GHG emissions and thus the impact on climate change. Therefore, the achievable ramp-up potential is of upmost importance to meet the Paris climate targets.In this context, “FVV Fuels Study IVb” further explores the achievable transition (ramp-up) of the European road sector towards climate-neutrality to achieve GHG neutrality as early as possible.As main conclusion, a favorable mix of carbon-neutral mobility pathways can speed up the transition to GHG neutral mobility significantly. With such a mix – achievable under ideal regulatory conditions provided in 2023 – GHG-neutrality can be achieved by the year 2039 already, while a single technology battery-electric- vehicle (BEV) scenario cannot achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 due to binding bottlenecks (as e.g., electrical grid extension) and will have emitted 39 % more GHG emissions until 2050 than the optimum mix scenario. In this context drop-in capable e-fuels provide a unique technology option to GHG-neutrally operate the existing fleet once they become available at large scale. Despite long lead times for setting up large-scale synthesis plants, e-fuels can accelerate overall GHG reductions considerably.