Subnational Climate Leadership Dynamics Among Under2 Coalition Members
- Open Access
- 2026
- Open Access
- Book
- Authors
- Jale Tosun
- Simon Bulian
- Alfie Gaffney
- Joan Enguer
- Emiliano Levario Saad
- Book Series
- Palgrave Studies in Sub-National Governance
- Publisher
- Springer Nature Switzerland
About this book
This open access book examines climate policy effort among subnational governments participating in the Under2 Coalition. The central research question investigates whether Under2 Coalition founding members demonstrate greater climate policy effort compared to early joiners (2015-2016) and later joiners (post-2016), and whether these performance differences persist over time. The empirical analysis focuses on subnational governments in five countries that played influential roles in founding and developing the Under2 Coalition: Canada, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The study makes three key contributions to climate governance literature. First, it systematically demonstrates how climate policy effort and leadership dynamics evolve within the Under2 Coalition framework. Second, it provides genuinely comparative insights across two dimensions—comparing different membership categories within countries and across nations. Third, it offers a replicable methodological template for expanding this research approach to other contexts.
By examining quantifiable indicators including policies, policy instruments, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets, the book provides valuable insights into how multilevel climate governance can be strengthened and sustained over time, bridging theory and practice in understanding subnational climate action.
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Table of Contents
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Chapter 1. Introduction
- Open Access
Download PDF-versionThis chapter examines the climate policy efforts of subnational governments that are part of the Under2 Coalition (U2C), founded in 2015. It compares the performance of founding members with those who joined later, assessing whether founding members demonstrate greater climate policy effort and if these differences are sustained over time. The chapter provides a historical context of international climate cooperation, highlighting the role of subnational governments in advancing climate action. It also outlines the mission and governance structure of the U2C, emphasizing its commitment to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The analysis is structured around detailed case studies from the United States, Canada, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom, offering insights into the leadership dynamics within the coalition. The chapter concludes by synthesizing the findings and discussing the broader implications for subnational climate governance.AI Generated
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AbstractThis introductory chapter formulates the overarching research interest of the book: the examination of climate policy effort among subnational governments in the Under2 Coalition, a transnational network founded in 2015 by regional jurisdictions committed to limiting global warming to 1.5°C. The central research question asks whether Under2 Coalition founding members demonstrate greater and more sustained climate policy effort compared to early joiners (2015–2016) and later joiners (post-2016) within their respective national contexts. Drawing on the conceptual framework of climate leadership and followership, the study conducts systematic comparative analysis across five countries: the United States, Canada, Germany, Spain, and the UK. The analysis focuses on quantifiable indicators including policies, policy instruments, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets over the decade since the Under2 Coalition’s establishment. The research contributes to understanding how subnational climate leadership manifests itself in multilevel governance systems and provides a replicable methodological template for examining climate policy dynamics in the members of transnational networks beyond European and North American contexts. -
Chapter 2. Conceptual Framework
- Open Access
Download PDF-versionThis chapter delves into the pivotal role of subnational governments in global climate governance, highlighting their autonomy and influence within multilevel systems. It examines the motivations behind their participation in transnational climate initiatives like the Under2 Coalition (U2C) and the subsequent impact on their climate policy efforts. The analysis is structured around two key literatures: multilevel governance (MLG) and climate leadership. The chapter distinguishes between Type I and Type II MLG, aligning its approach with the latter to emphasize the flexible, collaborative nature of subnational climate action. It also explores different types of climate leadership—cognitive, entrepreneurial, structural, and exemplary—and their application at the subnational level. The chapter further investigates the dynamic nature of climate leadership, identifying strengthening and weakening factors such as crisis events, technological developments, and political transitions. It concludes by proposing that founding members of U2C demonstrate the highest levels of sustained climate policy effort due to reputational lock-in effects, offering a unique perspective on the durability of climate policies.AI Generated
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AbstractThis chapter develops a conceptual framework for analyzing climate leadership among subnational governments in the Under2 Coalition. Drawing on multilevel governance theory, particularly Type II governance structures, the analysis positions subnational actors as autonomous entities operating within polycentric networks rather than hierarchical systems. The framework adopts Liefferink and Wurzel’s typology of climate leadership—cognitive, entrepreneurial, structural, and exemplary—while acknowledging empirical challenges in distinguishing between types. Central to the framework is reputation theory, which explains differential climate policy effort based on membership timing. Two core propositions guide the empirical analysis: first, founding members demonstrate higher climate policy effort than early and later joiners due to stronger reputational incentives; second, founding members exhibit greater policy durability over time through reputational lock-in effects that increase the costs of policy retreat. The chapter alludes to the importance of both strengthening factors (crisis events, technological developments, electoral dynamics) and weakening factors (economic pressures, political transitions) that shape climate leadership trajectories across temporal and political contexts. -
Chapter 3. United States
- Open Access
Download PDF-versionThis chapter explores the diverse approaches to climate governance adopted by U.S. states, highlighting the significant role of state-level initiatives in driving climate action. It examines the founding members of the Under2 Coalition, including California, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington, and their pioneering efforts in implementing climate policies. The analysis extends to early and late joiners, such as Connecticut, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey, and Virginia, providing a comparative overview of their climate policies and instruments. The chapter also discusses the leadership roles of these states, categorizing them into cognitive, structural, entrepreneurial, and exemplary leadership. It concludes with a comparative analysis of the policies, instruments, and targets adopted by these states, offering insights into the effectiveness and impact of their climate governance strategies. The chapter underscores the importance of state-level action in advancing climate policy and the role of the Under2 Coalition in fostering subnational climate governance.AI Generated
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AbstractThis chapter examines climate policy efforts across 17 US states that joined the Under2 Coalition at different timepoints, analyzing founding members (California, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), early joiners (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, and Rhode Island), and late joiners (Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey, and Virginia). The analysis systematically compares climate policy adoption, policy instrument diversification, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets across these membership categories. California emerges as the dominant climate leader, leveraging its unique Clean Air Act waiver and market power to demonstrate cognitive, structural, entrepreneurial, and exemplary leadership. Other founding members show more variable patterns, with partisan politics creating significant constraints. Early joiners like Massachusetts and New York amplified existing frameworks through the Under2 Coalition membership, while states like New Hampshire represent followership despite early participation. Late joiners generally maintain lower policy effort levels, though some developed ambitious frameworks prior to coalition entry. The findings provide mixed support for the propositions regarding founding member leadership and policy durability. -
Chapter 4. Canada
- Open Access
Download PDF-versionThis chapter delves into the climate policies, instruments, and targets of four Canadian provinces—British Columbia, Ontario, Québec, and Northwest Territories—within the context of the Under2 Coalition (U2C). It examines the varying degrees of climate leadership and followership exhibited by these provinces, with a particular focus on the impact of U2C membership. The analysis reveals that British Columbia and Ontario, as founding members, have demonstrated strong climate ambition, with British Columbia showcasing consistent policy activity and Ontario experiencing political instability. Québec, an early joiner, has shown leadership in transboundary governance and resource nationalism, while Northwest Territories, a later joiner, has exhibited place-specific leadership. The chapter concludes that U2C membership has influenced subnational climate action, but the extent of this influence varies due to context-specific factors. It also highlights the need for further research to understand the mechanisms of reputational motivation in climate clubs.AI Generated
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AbstractThis chapter examines climate policy efforts across four Canadian subnational jurisdictions that joined the Under2 Coalition at different timepoints: founding members British Columbia and Ontario, early joiner Québec, and later joiner Northwest Territories. The analysis compares the adoption of climate policy, policy instruments, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets to assess whether founding members demonstrate greater climate ambition than subsequent joiners. British Columbia exhibited sustained climate leadership before and after co-founding the Under2 Coalition, while Ontario’s trajectory was marked by political instability and policy reversals. Québec, despite being only an early joiner and not an Under2 Coalition founder, demonstrated robust climate action intertwined with resource nationalism and paradiplomacy. Northwest Territories, as a later joiner, showed limited policy activity but place-specific innovation in addressing energy needs of remote community. The findings reveal that early Under2 Coalition engagement (whether as founding member or early joiner) facilitates maintenance and enhancement of climate leadership, though context-specific factors—including federal-provincial fragmentation, political transitions, and resource dependencies—significantly shape subnational climate action trajectories and climate policy durability. -
Chapter 5. Germany
- Open Access
Download PDF-versionThis chapter delves into the diverse trajectories of climate leadership among German states, focusing on their role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Baden-Württemberg emerges as a clear leader, demonstrating consistent policy activity and ambitious climate targets, particularly after co-founding the Under2 Coalition (U2C). The analysis compares Baden-Württemberg's climate policies with those of other early joiners—Bavaria, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Schleswig-Holstein, and Thuringia—and later joiners—Lower Saxony and Rhineland-Palatinate. Key topics include the impact of political transitions, structural conditions, and the influence of the federal Energy Transition strategy on state-level climate action. The chapter concludes that U2C membership reinforced leadership where favorable domestic conditions existed, while having a weaker impact on laggard states. This insightful comparison underscores the dynamic nature of subnational climate leadership and the importance of political ambition and structural pressures in driving climate policy.AI Generated
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AbstractThis chapter examines climate policy efforts across eight German states that joined the Under2 Coalition at different timepoints, analyzing founding member Baden-Württemberg, five early joiners (Bavaria, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Schleswig-Holstein, and Thuringia), and two later joiners (Lower Saxony and Rhineland-Palatinate). Operating within Germany’s concurrent legislation principle that constrains subnational regulatory autonomy, these states demonstrate varied climate policy and leadership trajectories shaped by the federal energy transition (Energiewende), political configurations, and structural conditions. Baden-Württemberg emerges as the most consistent climate leader, exhibiting cognitive, exemplary, structural, and entrepreneurial leadership through early legislative action, a comprehensive set of policy instruments, and sustained ambition before and after co-founding the Under2 Coalition. Early joiners show mixed patterns: North Rhine-Westphalia initially demonstrated strong leadership before changes in government weakened ambition, while Schleswig-Holstein leveraged structural advantages and Bavaria remained a follower despite early membership. Later joiners present contrasting cases, with Rhineland-Palatinate exhibiting unexpected climate leadership and Lower Saxony remaining a follower despite renewable energy advantages. The analysis reveals that Under2 Coalition membership reinforced leadership where favorable state-level conditions existed—particularly Green Party government participation—while having limited impact on laggard states. -
Chapter 6. Spain
- Open Access
Download PDF-versionThis chapter delves into Spain's climate policy landscape, highlighting the significant role of regional governments in shaping the country's climate response. It explores how Spain's climate policy has evolved from a passive stance to a more active, albeit lagging, approach, with the central administration and regional governments sharing responsibilities. The chapter focuses on the impact of U2C membership on regional climate policy efforts, examining how the timing of joining (founding, early, or late) has influenced both initial commitments and long-term policy development. It provides a comparative analysis of different regions, including Catalonia, the Basque Country, the Foral Community of Navarre, Andalusia, the Community of Madrid, and Galicia, highlighting their unique approaches and challenges. The chapter also discusses the various forms of leadership displayed by these regions, including cognitive, entrepreneurial, and exemplary leadership. It concludes by assessing the central propositions that founding and early members of transnational organizations such as U2C face the strongest reputational incentives, which induce them to demonstrate elevated levels of climate policy activity and create long-term pressures to sustain and enhance those commitments.AI Generated
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AbstractThis chapter examines climate policy efforts across six Spanish Autonomous Communities that joined the Under2 Coalition at different timepoints: founding member Catalonia, early joiners Basque Country and Foral Community of Navarre, and later joiners Andalusia, Community of Madrid, and Galicia. Operating within Spain’s multilevel governance system, these regions filled a policy vacuum created by limited national climate action at the national level prior to 2021. Catalonia demonstrates the clearest leadership profile, combining cognitive, entrepreneurial, and exemplary dimensions through pioneering legislation and transnational diplomacy. The Basque Country exhibits strong entrepreneurial orientation through sustained policy-based climate action, while Navarre shows entrepreneurial impulses undermined by implementation deficits. Among later joiners, Andalusia displays cognitive leadership rooted in two decades of strategic planning, Madrid remains comparatively incremental in its approach to climate policy despite economic capacity, and Galicia demonstrates increasing dynamism following strategically timed Under2 Coalition accession during COP 26. The analysis reveals that Under2 Coalition membership reinforced pre-existing leadership among founding and early members through reputational incentives, while its influence on later joiners appears to serve primarily to formalize existing commitments rather than catalyze transformation toward carbon neutrality. -
Chapter 7. United Kingdom
- Open Access
Download PDF-versionThis chapter delves into the climate leadership and policy adoption of four UK subnational entities—Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man—within the Under2 Coalition (U2C). It examines how these entities have developed their 'climate actorness' through distinct engagement with U2C, focusing on their policy instruments, targets, and leadership styles. The analysis reveals that while Wales, as a founding member, has shown strong normative and cognitive leadership, Scotland, an early joiner, has demonstrated the greatest climate ambition, adopting the most policies and ambitious targets. Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man, as later joiners, have shown signs of climate followership, stepping up their climate action after joining U2C. The chapter also explores the role of U2C in shaping these entities' climate ambitions and the unique challenges and opportunities each faces. The findings highlight the complexities of the UK climate governance landscape and the consequential nature of devolved autonomy and landmark climate acts for maintaining and stepping up climate action.AI Generated
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AbstractThis chapter examines climate policy efforts across four UK jurisdictions that joined the Under2 Coalition at different timepoints: founding member Wales, early joiner Scotland, and later joiners Northern Ireland and Isle of Man. Operating within the UK’s constitutionally asymmetric devolution framework, these subnational entities demonstrate varied climate leadership trajectories shaped by differential legislative powers, political contexts, and institutional capacities. Wales exhibits normative and cognitive leadership through pioneering an innovative intergenerational approach to climate action despite constitutional entanglement with English law limiting implementation capacity. Scotland, though only an early Under2 Coalition joiner, demonstrates the strongest climate ambition of all nations, driven by independence aspirations and serving as European Under2 Coalition co-chair, though recent difficulties in meeting the GHG emissions reduction target prompted the adoption of carbon budgets. Northern Ireland’s delayed policy-based climate action reflects post-conflict recovery priorities and repeated Assembly suspensions, while Isle of Man exemplifies followership through policy emulation and reliance on external expertise. The findings reveal mixed support for our two propositions regarding founding member advantages, highlighting how constitutional autonomy and political stability prove more decisive than membership timing in determining climate policy profiles. -
Chapter 8. Comparative Assessment
- Open Access
Download PDF-versionThis chapter delves into the comparative assessment of climate policies, instruments, and targets across diverse subnational jurisdictions, focusing on the United States, Canada, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom. It explores how the timing of accession to the Under2 Coalition (U2C) interacts with domestic political contexts, institutional capacity, and structural factors to shape climate policy trajectories. The analysis reveals that founding members generally demonstrate sustained climate policy effort, with some early joiners matching or exceeding their ambition. Notably, certain later joiners show remarkable acceleration in policy-based climate action post-membership, challenging assumptions about first-mover advantages. The chapter also highlights the role of U2C as an amplifying mechanism that reinforces existing climate policy trajectories and provides reputational incentives for sustained action. Key findings include the influence of domestic political dynamics on climate leadership, the importance of institutional stability, and the impact of geographic and economic factors on policy implementation. The analysis concludes that while U2C membership can strengthen climate commitments, it is domestic political contexts, institutional capacity, and structural factors that ultimately determine the effectiveness of climate policies.AI Generated
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AbstractThis chapter provides a comparative assessment of climate policies, policy instruments, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets across subnational jurisdictions in the United States, Canada, Germany, Spain, and the UK that joined the Under2 Coalition at different timepoints. The analysis reveals that while founding members generally demonstrate sustained climate policy effort, the relationship between membership timing and climate ambition is mediated by domestic political contexts, institutional capacity, and structural factors. Under2 Coalition membership functions primarily as an amplifying mechanism rather than a transformative catalyst, reinforcing existing climate policy trajectories through reputational incentives, policy learning networks, and international visibility. Evidence of policy diffusion emerges through adoption of California’s vehicle emission standards, institutional emulation of climate laws, and transfer of innovative mechanisms like Scotland’s Climate Justice Fund. However, some early joiners match or exceed founding member performance, while certain later joiners demonstrate a remarkable acceleration of policy-based climate action, challenging simple assumptions about first-mover advantages. Political transitions, constitutional arrangements, and economic factors prove more decisive than coalition entry sequencing in determining actual policy outcomes. -
Chapter 9. Conclusion
- Open Access
Download PDF-versionThis chapter delves into the impact of the Under2 Coalition (U2C) on subnational climate policy efforts, focusing on the differences between founding members and later joiners. Through detailed case studies in the United States, Canada, Germany, Spain, and the UK, it assesses climate policy efforts across multiple dimensions and over time. The analysis reveals that reputational incentives linked to U2C membership influence the scope and ambition of climate policy efforts, with founding members generally demonstrating higher levels of commitment. However, political dynamics, economic contexts, and constitutional setups also play significant roles. The chapter identifies different types of climate leadership, including structural, cognitive, entrepreneurial, and exemplary leadership, and highlights the phenomenon of followership, where some subnational governments join U2C to learn from and eventually emulate climate leaders. The findings underscore the importance of understanding subnational climate action within specific contexts and the need for flexible, context-appropriate approaches in future climate governance architectures.AI Generated
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AbstractThis concluding chapter synthesizes findings from comparative analysis of subnational governments across the United States, Canada, Germany, Spain, and the UK to assess whether Under2 Coalition founding members demonstrate greater climate leadership than later joiners. The analysis reveals mixed support for propositions linking reputational incentives to climate policy effort: California, Baden-Württemberg, and Catalonia exhibited sustained leadership consistent with theoretical expectations, while cases like Ontario and Scotland complicate straightforward temporal patterns. Beyond membership timing, constitutional arrangements, partisan composition, economic context, and institutional capacity emerge as critical mediating factors. The study identifies four leadership types—structural, cognitive, entrepreneurial, and exemplary—manifested across jurisdictions, while recognizing followership as strategically significant, with some actors using it as a calculated pathway toward eventual leadership. Key limitations include conceptual simplification of leadership/followership dynamics, exclusive focus on high-income democracies, and case selection biased toward Under2 Coalition members. The chapter alludes to future research which could expand geographic scope to Latin America and other regions, develop more nuanced theoretical frameworks integrating multilevel governance and network effects, and incorporate non-member jurisdictions for comprehensive comparison.
- Title
- Subnational Climate Leadership Dynamics Among Under2 Coalition Members
- Authors
-
Jale Tosun
Simon Bulian
Alfie Gaffney
Joan Enguer
Emiliano Levario Saad
- Copyright Year
- 2026
- Publisher
- Springer Nature Switzerland
- Electronic ISBN
- 978-3-032-12610-8
- Print ISBN
- 978-3-032-12609-2
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-12610-8
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