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About this book

This book is based on the “Summer Simulation Multi-Conference” (SCSC), which has been a prominent platform for the dissemination of scholarly research in the M&S community for the last 50 years. In keeping with the conference’s seasonal title, the authors have called this half-century “the summer of simulation,” and it has led not only to simulation-based disciplines but also simulation as a discipline. This book discusses contributions from the SCSC in four sections. The first section is an introduction to the work. The second section is devoted to contributions from simulation research fellows who were associated with the SCSC, while the third section features the SCSC’s most influential contributions. Lastly, the fourth section includes contributions from the best papers in the last five years.

Features:

• A comprehensive volume dedicated to one of the simulation domain’s major conferences: the SCSC

• Offers a scientometric analysis of the SCSC

• Revisits high-impact topics from 50 years of the SCSC

• Includes chapters by simulation research fellows associated with the SCSC

• Presents updated best-paper contributions from the recent conference

This work will be of value to anyone interested in the evolution of modeling and simulation over the last fifty years. Readers will gain a perspective on what drove this evolution, and develop an understanding of the key contributions that allowed this technology to grow into its own academic discipline and profession.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. 50 Summers of Computer Simulation

Abstract
We are having seasons: summers and winters of many scientific disciplines. Many fields are experiencing hype cycles. Each one of us would remember “AI winter” from the history of Artificial Intelligence. Inflated expectations are followed by disappointment and eventually funding cuts. Renewing the interest takes then years if not decades. The Society for Modeling and Simulation International has achieved outstanding success in the last 50 years to keep Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC) an important event through many seasons of simulation, some of which were more remarkable than others. This chapter summarizes the panel discussion/contributions of the SCSC 2018 about the seasons in computer simulation and the ways to achieve and further prolong summers of computer simulation.
Umut Durak, Andrea D’Ambrogio, Andreas Tolk, Saikou Diallo, Gregory Zacharewicz, José L. Risco-Martín, Jacob Barhak, Ralph Coolidge Huntsinger, M. S. Raunak

Chapter 2. How Abstraction, Formalization and Implementation Drive the Next Stage in Modeling and Simulation

Abstract
The progression of abstraction, formalization, and implementation have played a critical role in advancing the theory and practice of modeling and simulation. In this chapter, we first review the historical record to illustrate how this progression characterizes the pattern of development of both the precursors, and the essence, of discrete event simulation. Then we review Judea Pearl’s Ladder of Causation to put it into correspondence with the levels of specification of systems theory. This provides the basis for discussion of potential automation of some of the activities of the M&S enterprise with the help of causal inference methods from artificial intelligence.
Bernard P. Zeigler

Chapter 3. High-Speed, Low-Cost Simulation of Power Electronic Systems—A 50+ Year Collaboration

Abstract
Ship’s electric power systems use many power converters to generate the ac or dc supplies needed by a wide variety of loads. The switching frequencies used in these converters continue to increase, reducing unwanted harmonics and the size and weight of transformers and other components. Higher switching speeds pose problems for simulations of these systems particularly where real-time execution is necessary. The development of low-cost, high-speed simulatiosn of power electronic systems has been a goal of research at California State University, Chico for over 20 years. This research was the result of a collaboration that began in the UK over 50 years ago.
Roy Crosbie

Chapter 4. Over Fifty Years of My Involvement in Simulation

Abstract
Author’s involvement and witnessing the advancements of modeling and simulation over 50 years are highlighted. Some concepts are outlined: inputs, data, quality and failure avoidance in simulation , ethics, machine understanding , synergies of simulation with several disciplines, intelligence and simulation , agent-directed simulation , simulation terminology , modeling and simulation body of knowledge, big picture of simulation , bigger picture of similarity, and some of the aspirations of the author for the future of simulation .
Tuncer Ören

Chapter 5. Limitations and Usefulness of Computer Simulations for Complex Adaptive Systems Research

Abstract
Complex adaptive systems in nature may produce something new, like structures, patterns, or properties, that arise from the rules of self-organization. These novelties are emergent if they cannot be understood as any property of the components but are a new property of the system. Emergence is a key property of complex systems. A popular method to better understand complex adaptive systems is the use of their computational representation, predominantly using the agent metaphor to produce emergence. The philosophy of science differentiates ontological and epistemological emergence. Ontological emergence produces something systemically new, while epistemological emergence produces new rules and laws, and as such can be reduced by gaining a better understanding of the system. The work presented here makes the case that emergence in computational complex adaptive systems cannot be ontological, as the constraints of computable functions do not allow for ontological emergence. As such, computer representations of complex adaptive systems are limited, as claims to produce systemically real emergence with computational systems contradicts some fundamental insights from computer science and philosophy of science. Nonetheless, they are useful to understand better the relationship of emergence and complex adaptive systems and conduct adductive research, which may be the best support of complex systems evaluation we can provide to complexity scientists to move the borderline between what is theoretically feasible to what is practically possible.
Andreas Tolk

Chapter 6. Cloud-Based Simulation

Abstract
In order to accommodate the development and application of simulation systems in network environments, modeling and simulation technology embraced increasingly web-based to cloud-based solutions. This chapter describes the development from the early application of web services, the use of simulation grids, towards modeling and simulation as a service. A current architecture for cloud simulation platforms is presented and key technologies for its implementation are identified. The chapter deals with big data challenges as well as digital twins and provides some applications of cloud-based simulation. It closes with the conclusion that the trend of simulation technology will be cloud-based and intelligent and motivates an intelligent cloud in support of simulation.
Lin Zhang, Fei Wang, Feng Li

Chapter 7. Converting High Level Models into DEVS Modeling and Simulation Applications

Abstract
We discuss a number of methods for converting high level modeling formalisms and languages into lower level discrete-event systems specifications using the DEVS formalism. We present the implementation of such methods in the CD++ open source toolkit, and discuss different case studies. We focus on a variety of methods, ranging from Petri Nets and Finite State Machines up to Modelica and advanced Traffic modeling languages, showing the generality of DEVS based solutions, and the definition of user libraries in different domains.
Gabriel A. Wainer

Chapter 8. A Profiling Study of the Summer Computer Simulation Conference

Abstract
The Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC) is part of the Summer Simulation Multi-conference that is organized by the Society of Modelling and Simulation International. SCSC celebrated its 50th Anniversary in 2018! We therefore thought it timely to present a profiling study of SCSC conferences and report on metrics associated with publications, such as, contribution of authors and institutions, county-specific affiliation data, funding organizations, scholarly outlets (journals and conferences) and authors being cited by SCSC authors, frequency of citations by years, and citations count of papers published in SCSC proceedings. The period of review was from 2005 to 2017 and our dataset consisted of 911 papers. Our findings confirm the international character of this conference, with leading SCSC authors and institutions based in Canada, Europe and North America. Our citation-based analysis reveals the breath of literature being cited by the authors, and which includes Operations Research, industrial and process engineering, and applied computing. This book chapter adds to the profiling studies that have been undertaken by the authors in the field of M&S, and which includes, a profile of the journals Simulation and the Journal of Defence Modelling and Simulation, and the Winter Simulation Conference.
Navonil Mustafee, Korina Katsaliaki

Chapter 9. New Frontiers in Modeling and Simulation in Complex Systems Engineering: The Case of Synthetic Emergence

Abstract
Complex systems are everywhere, in both natural and artificial world. One of the characteristic properties of complex systems is the manifestation of emergent behavior that continuously keeps the system evolving. Many times, this emergent behavior is the very reason for the systems’ survival. To perform complex systems engineering for artificial systems, Modeling and Simulation (M&S) provides a harness to analyze, experiment and test the system before it goes into production. Developing an M&S environment that can manifest emergent behavior is a challenge in itself. Part of the problem is the elusive nature of emergence. This chapter will provide an overview of the evolutionary path the M&S of emergent behavior has taken in the last few years. It defines Synthetic Emergence as emergence engineering in artificial environments. The chapter provides the pre-, post-conditions and the engineering process to achieve synthetic emergence.
Saurabh Mittal

Chapter 10. An Introduction to Pedestrian Modeling Using Spatial Discrete-Event Modeling and Simulation

Abstract
We discuss an approach for spatial discrete-event Modeling and Simulation (M&S) of crowds using the Cell-DEVS formalism, which provides some advantages over existing crowd modeling approaches, as it provides a trade-off between the simulated granularity level and the computational requirements. We explain through simple one- and two-dimensional models how Cell-DEVS is used to build pedestrian models. Furthermore, the usability of the approach is verified by employing it in real-life case studies. We discuss different case studies, employing the Cell-DEVS approach to build a model for a general building evacuation, and a fire evacuation model.
Gabriel A. Wainer, Ala’a Al-Habashna

Chapter 11. Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Liquidity Mismatch in Open-End Bond Funds

Abstract
In this chapter, we present a small-scale heterogeneous agent-based model of the US corporate bond market. The model includes a realistic micro-grounded ecology of investors that trade a set of bonds through dealers. Using the model, we simulate market dynamics that emerge from agent behaviors in response to basic exogenous factors such as interest rate shocks. A first experiment focuses on the liquidity transformation provided by mutual funds and investigates the conditions under which redemption-driven bond sales may trigger market instability. We simulate the effects of increasing mutual fund market shares in the presence of market-wide repricing of risk (in the form of a 100-basis point increase in the expected returns). The simulations highlight robust-yet-fragile aspects of the growing liquidity transformation provided by mutual funds, with an inflection point beyond which redemption-driven negative feedback loops trigger market-wide price instability.
Donald J. Berndt, David Boogers, Saurav Chakraborty, James McCart

Chapter 12. A Partially Grounded Agent Based Model on Demonetisation Outcomes in India

Abstract
In November 2016 the Indian government announced a policy of demonetising the ₹500 and ₹1000 currency notes in an attempt to move the economy into using cashless modes for financial transactions. Given that India is a cash intensive economy the effects of demonetisation were immediate and far reaching. This chapter examines the likely impact of demonetisation on such a cash intensive economy using an Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) approach. The goals were to understand pathways to transition to a cashless money use behavior and to estimate a population’s inconvenience in accessing cash modes, given geographic features, limited resource and readiness towards change. Our model is built on empirical evidence from a survey which studied the systemic and behavioral drivers of money use behavior post-demonetisation. The model is able to illustrate outcomes depicting the pattern of transition to digital payments. We present a framework for optimal remonetisation considering infrastructure density and inconvenience experienced during transition by the population. Simulation analysis found other interesting insights such as service infrastructure acting as a catalyst to noncash transition.
Rishi Bubna, Jayasree Raveendran, Suman Kumar, Mayuri Duggirala, Mukul Malik

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