Sustaining Peace After Civil War
Insights from 48 Recent Cases
- 2025
- Book
- Author
- Thorsten Gromes
- Publisher
- Springer Nature Switzerland
About this book
This book examines one of the most important questions in peace research: What leads to enduring peace after civil wars, and what leads to the resurgence of violence? For decades, intrastate conflicts have been the predominant form of armed conflict, and most recent civil wars were conflicts that recurred. The research presented in this book focuses on influenceable factors, first and foremost on the type of civil war termination and on the post-civil war order that is shaped by the distribution of military power between the former warring parties and the scale of political compromise. Moreover, it shows that the peacekeeping environment has a major influence on whether peace endures. The insights provided in this book are relevant for the academic community, and for decision-makers and practitioners involved in civilian or military efforts to establish and preserve peace.
Advertisement
Table of Contents
-
Frontmatter
-
1. Why Study the Recurrence of Civil War?
Thorsten GromesThis chapter examines the recurrence of civil wars, highlighting their devastating impacts on societies and the challenges of achieving lasting peace. It explores the factors that contribute to the recurrence of civil wars, including the distribution of military power, political compromise, and the effectiveness of peacekeeping missions. The analysis is based on a dataset of 48 civil wars that ended between 1990 and 2009, with a focus on the post-civil war period. The chapter also investigates the conditions under which peace agreements and military victories are effective in preventing civil war recurrence. Additionally, it delves into the role of peacekeeping missions and the feasibility of resuming civil war. The findings reveal that the divergence between the scale of political compromise and the distribution of military power is a key factor in understanding why peace collapses or survives. The chapter concludes with policy recommendations and suggestions for further research on the dynamics of post-conflict societies.AI Generated
This summary of the content was generated with the help of AI.
AbstractAs this introductory chapter demonstrates, most armed conflicts since World War II have been intrastate conflicts, many of them conflicts that recurred. The book analyzes civil wars in which at least 1000 people lost their lives due to battles or deliberate attacks on civilians. It studies civil war recidivism, focusing on factors that can be shaped by decision-makers, primarily on the type of civil war termination and the post–civil war order, which is characterized by the distribution of military power between the former warring parties and the scale of political compromise. -
2. The Dataset on Post–Civil War Power and Compromise 1990–2012
Thorsten GromesThis dataset delves into the intricate dynamics of post-civil war power distribution and political compromise, focusing on 48 civil wars that concluded between 1990 and 2012. It meticulously examines the distribution of military power and political compromise as pivotal factors in determining the stability of peace. The dataset introduces indicators for relative military power and political compromise, providing a nuanced understanding of post-civil war scenarios. It covers developments following all types of war termination, including peace agreements, ceasefires, and military victories. The dataset also includes case descriptions that explain all coding decisions and identify sources, ensuring transparency and reliability. By analyzing the interaction between relative military power and political compromise, this dataset offers valuable insights into the conditions under which peace endures or collapses. It serves as a comprehensive resource for researchers and practitioners in the field of conflict resolution and peace studies.AI Generated
This summary of the content was generated with the help of AI.
AbstractDebates about the onset, termination, and recurrence of civil wars commonly address power relations and political arrangements between adversaries. The dataset presented here contributes to these debates by introducing novel variables on military balances and political compromises after 48 civil wars that ended between 1990 and 2009. It is structured as a time series in which each observation represents one post-conflict year in a government-rebel dyad between 1990 and 2012. Overall, the dataset covers 554 post-conflict years in 33 countries and includes in-depth case descriptions that document and substantiate all coding decisions made. -
3. Divergence Between Relative Military Power and the Scale of Political Compromise as a Path to Civil War Recurrence
Thorsten GromesThis chapter delves into the complex dynamics of civil war recurrence, focusing on the interplay between relative military power and the scale of political compromise. The analysis reveals that the convergence or divergence of these factors contributes to a limited extent in explaining why peace lasts or collapses. The study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative survival analysis and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), to test the assumption that the relationship between military power and political compromise is decisive for sustaining peace after civil war. The findings indicate that neither convergence nor divergence alone can fully resolve the contradictory findings in previous research. The chapter also discusses the implications of these results and examines alternative approaches to addressing the contradictory findings of previous studies. Key topics include the role of military victories versus peace agreements in preventing civil war recurrence, the impact of power-sharing arrangements, and the significance of the information problem in bargaining and conflict resolution. The analysis provides a nuanced understanding of the conditions under which peace is likely to endure or collapse, offering valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in the field of conflict studies.AI Generated
This summary of the content was generated with the help of AI.
AbstractPrevious research has prominently discussed whether military victories or political compromises lead to stable peace. This chapter argues that both approaches prevent civil war recurrence if they result in a convergence of the distribution of military power and the distribution of political benefits. In contrast, if relative military power diverges from the distribution of political benefits, peace is less stable. To test this assumption, the author conducts a quantitative survival analysis, uses Qualitative Comparative Analysis, and briefly discusses five cases in which the scale of political compromise diverged from relative military power. A divergence between the scale of political compromise and the distribution of military power partly explains peace survival and civil war recurrence. However, the findings do not solve the controversy of “stable peace through military victory” vs. “stable peace through compromise.” -
4. Preventing Civil War Recurrence: Do Military Victories Really Perform Better Than Peace Agreements? Causal Claim and Underpinning Assumptions Revisited (with Florian Ranft)
Thorsten GromesThis chapter revisits the conventional wisdom that military victories are more effective than peace agreements in preventing civil war recurrence. The study challenges this assumption by examining the underpinning assumptions and testing their validity. The analysis focuses on civil wars since 1990, considering both state-based conflicts and related one-sided violence. The findings indicate that peace agreements exhibit an equally strong correlation to enduring peace as military victories. The study also explores various underpinning assumptions, such as the destruction of organizational capabilities, government effectiveness, military imbalance, and the deterrence of other contenders. The results show mixed support for these assumptions, with some being partially supported and others rejected. The chapter concludes that both military victories and peace agreements can be effective in preventing civil war recurrence, challenging the dominant narrative that favors military victories. The study highlights the importance of considering the specific context and conditions of each conflict when determining the most effective path to lasting peace.AI Generated
This summary of the content was generated with the help of AI.
AbstractExisting research suggests that peace is more stable after military victories than it is after peace agreements. This chapter challenges this conventional wisdom. By applying survival analysis, it demonstrates that peace agreements exhibit just as strong of a relationship to enduring peace as military victories do. Moreover, it investigates the assumptions that underpin the aforementioned claim. These assumptions link peace survival to the type of civil war termination and refer to intervening variables. Using time-series data for 48 civil wars that ended between 1990 and 2009, the empirical analysis finds support for only two underpinning assumptions in favor of victories. -
5. Why Civil War Recurrence Is More Likely After Ceasefires Than After Peace Agreements
Thorsten GromesThe chapter explores the reasons why civil war recurrence is more frequent after ceasefires than after peace agreements. It compares the two types of conflict termination, focusing on their impact on post-war stability. The analysis reveals that ceasefires are often associated with more balanced military power distributions, which can lead to divergent expectations and increased likelihood of renewed conflict. Additionally, ceasefires attract fewer international efforts, such as peacekeeping missions and development assistance, which are crucial for sustaining peace. The chapter also examines the role of opportunity factors, such as the maintenance of separate forces and control of territory, which are more prevalent after ceasefires. Through empirical data and case studies, the text provides a detailed overview of the challenges and dynamics involved in post-conflict scenarios, offering insights into the factors that contribute to the instability of peace after ceasefires.AI Generated
This summary of the content was generated with the help of AI.
AbstractPeace is less stable after mere ceasefires than after peace agreements. This chapter uses quantitative methods and Qualitative Comparative Analysis to assess possible explanations for this difference. Additionally, it conducts case studies on the collapse of ceasefires in Croatia in 1995, Chechnya in the Russian Federation in 1999, and Sri Lanka in 2005. It finds that civil wars that end with a ceasefire tend to occur in conflicts that are more difficult to pacify, mobilize less international assistance, result in a divergence between the distribution of military power and the distribution of political benefits, and perpetuate a military balance as well as an opportunity for resuming the civil war. Moreover, the chapter demonstrates that the so-called information problem seems to be overstated in research on civil war recurrence. -
6. Does Peacekeeping Only Work in Easy Environments? An Analysis of Conflict Characteristics, Mission Profiles, and Civil War Recurrence
Thorsten GromesThis chapter delves into the effectiveness of peacekeeping missions in preventing the recurrence of civil wars, focusing on the interplay between conflict characteristics and mission profiles. It challenges the widespread assumption that peacekeeping success is solely determined by mission characteristics, highlighting the critical role of the peacekeeping environment. The analysis employs Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to examine 22 post–Cold War peacekeeping missions, identifying key factors such as the intensity of the conflict, the nature of war termination, and the presence of ethnic divisions. The findings reveal that peacekeeping missions with a restrained approach succeed in conducive environments but fail in adverse contexts. Conversely, strong peacekeeping missions are necessary to compensate for difficult environments where the parties to the conflict are more willing and capable of resuming war. The chapter concludes that contextual conditions significantly impact peacekeeping outcomes, emphasizing the need for tailored peacekeeping strategies that consider the specific characteristics of each conflict.AI Generated
This summary of the content was generated with the help of AI.
AbstractPeacekeeping is widely considered to be an effective means of preventing civil war recurrence. However, as peace has collapsed in a considerable number of cases despite peacekeeping efforts, we are left with the question which combinations of peacekeeping environments and peacekeeping missions lead to a lasting peace. This chapter compares 22 peacekeeping missions between 1990 and 2012. While prominent United Nations documents assume that the success of post-conflict peacekeeping primarily depends on the features of the mission itself, the analysis shows that characteristics of terminated civil war have a strong influence on whether peace endures. Restrained peacekeeping, defined by low troop density, non-robustness, and a lead nation that is not a permanent member of the Security Council, only succeeds in preserving peace in conducive environments. Inconclusive war endings, evenly distributed military capabilities at war’s end, ethnic conflicts, and high intensity create a particularly difficult context for peacekeeping. -
7. Opportunity and Civil War Recurrence: Where the Resumption of Civil War Is Feasible, It Will Not Inevitably Occur
Thorsten GromesThis chapter delves into the complex dynamics of civil war recurrence, challenging the prevalent feasibility argument proposed by Collier, Hoeffler, and Söderbom. The study presents three key objections to their framework, including the conceptual limitation of focusing solely on rebellion feasibility, the use of indirect proxies for feasibility, and the insufficient testing of the sufficiency claim. The research employs Qualitative Comparative Analysis to investigate the relationship between feasibility factors and civil war recurrence, revealing that feasibility alone is not sufficient for civil war recurrence. However, the presence of multiple feasibility factors increases the likelihood of relapse. The study also highlights the importance of factors beyond feasibility, such as the type of war termination and political compromise, in understanding civil war recidivism and peace survival. The findings underscore the need for a more comprehensive approach to post-conflict peacebuilding that addresses a broader range of issues. The chapter concludes with policy recommendations that emphasize the importance of considering factors beyond feasibility in post-conflict scenarios.AI Generated
This summary of the content was generated with the help of AI.
AbstractAccording to one prominent claim, every opportunity for rebellion will be seized. For post–civil war societies, this implies that war inevitably recurs whenever it is feasible. While previous research has made use of probabilistic approaches to investigate this deterministic claim, this chapter employs set-theoretic methods to demonstrate that feasibility is not a sufficient condition for civil war resumption. Rather than relying on indirect proxies for feasibility, such as income level or topographic features, this chapter considers the military capabilities held by the former warring parties in 43 post–civil war dyads. The most important feasibility factor introduced here is the maintenance of separate forces throughout the post-war period. Yet, peace can also survive under such difficult circumstances. Conditions related to political inclusion that are outside of the feasibility framework help explain why peace endures. The policy recommendation is that decision-makers must also address aspects beyond feasibility. -
8. Conclusion
Thorsten GromesThis chapter delves into the complex dynamics of civil war recurrence, focusing on conflicts that ended after the Cold War. It identifies key factors such as the distribution of military power, the scale of political compromise, and the type of conflict termination (military victory, peace agreement, or ceasefire) that influence the likelihood of peace survival. The analysis reveals that peace is more unstable after mere ceasefires than after peace agreements, and that the peacekeeping environment plays a crucial role in determining the success of peacekeeping missions. The chapter also challenges the notion that the feasibility of rebellion is sufficient for civil war recurrence, emphasizing the importance of addressing the grievances of the parties involved. Through a detailed examination of 48 civil wars, the chapter provides valuable insights into the conditions under which peace is more likely to endure and offers policy recommendations for effective conflict management.AI Generated
This summary of the content was generated with the help of AI.
AbstractThe concluding chapter summarizes the five main findings: (1) A divergence between the scale of political compromise and the distribution of military power partly explains why peace collapses. (2) Terminating a civil war through a military victory and ending a conflict through a peace agreement are equally effective for preserving peace. (3) Peace is more unstable after mere ceasefires than after peace agreements. (4) The peacekeeping environment strongly influences whether peacekeeping missions indeed keep the peace. (5) Opportunity for rebellion is not sufficient for civil war to recur, but when more feasibility factors are present, civil war recidivism is more likely. This chapter also discusses policy implications. -
Backmatter
- Title
- Sustaining Peace After Civil War
- Author
-
Thorsten Gromes
- Copyright Year
- 2025
- Publisher
- Springer Nature Switzerland
- Electronic ISBN
- 978-3-032-11710-6
- Print ISBN
- 978-3-032-11709-0
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-11710-6
PDF files of this book have been created in accordance with the PDF/UA-1 standard to enhance accessibility, including screen reader support, described non-text content (images, graphs), bookmarks for easy navigation, keyboard-friendly links and forms and searchable, selectable text. We recognize the importance of accessibility, and we welcome queries about accessibility for any of our products. If you have a question or an access need, please get in touch with us at accessibilitysupport@springernature.com.
