Synchroneity of the Low- Frequency Planetary Wave Dynamics and Its Use to Create a Model for the Numerical Monthly Weather Forecasting

From the practical point of view the long-range weather forecasting (LRWF) is one of the most important problems in meteorology. Although the predictability theory gives the indication that day-to-day weather variations can be forecasted well for about threefour weeks ahead, in reality the predictability limit of such weather variations is about one week at present. Moreover, because of interactions of short- and long-term weather variations the predictability limit for temporally averaged weather characteristics is almost of the same value. Instabilities of atmospheric processes is the main reason for these limitations, and meteorologists are therefore trying to reduce these instabilities in models in order to represent the long-term weather variations as direct responses of the atmosphere to boundary forcing and thereby enhance the predictability of these longterm variations. Unfortunately, it is not possible to reach this goal without the loss of the qualitative similarity between the modeled and real-world atmospheric dynamics.