The Challenge of Environmental Security in the Euro-Mediterranean Region

Table of Contents

1. Frontmatter

2. Chapter 1. Natural and Anthropogenic Gradients

   Carlo Doglioni

   Abstract

   Any type of phenomena is generated by a gradient. Therefore, also natural and anthropogenic hazards are also controlled by physical or socio-economic gradients. There are three types of hazards affecting the Euro-Mediterranean Region: (1) natural risks such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, floodings, landslides, geochemical degassing, etc. generated by physical gradients in the solid Earth and the atmosphere; (2) anthropogenic gradients such as the CO₂ rise determined the ongoing global warming generating higher evaporation of the marine areas, implying stronger and more frequent storms and precipitations inland, as well as the expansion of desertic regions, plus, sea-level rise threatening coastal areas due to ice melting in the polar regions; (3) cultural and socio-economic gradients between the several and variegated populations living all around the Euro-Mediterranean area may be considered as historical richness, but are instead often used as the trigger for international disputes, due to the higher demographic growth, contemporaneous desertification, and lower income per capita in Africa with respect to Europe, determining gradients able to fueling migration of the population from south to north. To be ready to face natural and anthropogenic catastrophic events, we need to increase our knowledge of the Earth's mechanisms concerning what we know at present to forecast their evolution. For example, we should all together work to immediately fight climate change, governing and lowering such influence of human beings on natural equilibria. We must know gradients in order to govern them, if possible.

3. Chapter 2. Environmental Security and Climate Change: Strategic Scenarios and Crisis Factors

   Enrico Casini, Federico Deiana

   Abstract

   Security threats arising from the environment and climate change are not limited to asymmetric conflicts and non-state actors but are also increasingly influencing conventional military operations. Global warming, rising sea levels, and extreme weather events are forcing changes in defense strategies, impacting military infrastructure, operations, and personnel preparedness. Armed forces will need to adapt to new climatic conditions, facing challenges such as increased air turbulence or changes in maritime routes. Additionally, environmental changes are reshaping geopolitical geography, creating new opportunities and conflicts over control of natural resources, such as water and minerals essential for the energy transition. Coastal cities, vulnerable to natural disasters, pose a threat to internal security, as critical infrastructures can be damaged, as evidenced by events like Hurricane Katrina. Finally, climate change is becoming a central geopolitical factor, with potential rivalries among global powers to exploit transforming territories and resources, such as the Arctic. Managing these challenges will determine future security and stability, requiring international cooperation and investment in resilience.

4. Chapter 3. Safeguarding Potential Biosecurity Issues in Agribusiness

   Lijun Shang

   Abstract

   Biosecurity in the agribusiness sector is an often neglected and forgotten area of biological and chemical security. Complicated world environments and fast developing science and technologies especially those in agribusiness sector have put security education and training up to a higher level of importance and therefore building up capability in training in this sector is an urgent but challenge work. In this paper, we firstly present the potential biosecurity issues in agribusiness sector and then address the gaps in biosecurity education in this sector and explore how to build up capability through collaborative works. Through using biosecurity training as a conceptual model to be replicated for chemical and radiological education in agribusiness, we hope to potentially work towards a general framework, so that this capacity can be integrated into building up an International Biological Security Education Network (IBSEN) to tackle other CBRN issues in general.

5. Chapter 4. From Ocean Currents to Power Struggles: Climate Change and Emerging Geopolitical Threats in the Arctic

   Sandro Carniel, Andrea Gilli, Giuliana Panieri, Marco Dordoni, Mauro Sclavo

   Abstract

   This paper explores how climate change transforms the Arctic from a remote, ice-locked frontier into a critical arena where environmental fragility meets geopolitical volatility. As ocean currents shift and sea ice retreats, the Arctic emerges as both a bellwether of planetary change and a stage for intensifying strategic rivalries. The ocean and climate are deeply interconnected systems, and their evolving dynamics are reshaping global power relations—nowhere more visibly than in this rapidly warming region. New maritime routes and resource extraction opportunities are redrawing strategic maps, as Arctic states and global powers reposition themselves in response to shifting environmental and security landscapes. These changes, although cantered in the Arctic, reverberate through interconnected climate systems, impacting weather patterns and maritime security as far as the Euro-Mediterranean region. The paper analyses the complex interplay between ecological transformation and great power competition through an interdisciplinary lens that combines climate science, international relations, and security studies, this paper analyzes the complex interplay between ecological transformation and great power competition. In doing so, it calls for integrated, multilateral governance solutions capable of reconciling ecological protection with economic ambition and emerging security imperatives.

6. Chapter 5. Drought Risk Management in the MENA Region: The Role of Earth Observations and Open-Source Tools

   Jawad Al-Bakri, Muhammad Rasool Al-Kilani

   Abstract

   Drought as a climate risk in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is related to disastrous implications on a wide range of aspects. This chapter presents an overview on drought risk management in the MENA region, the technical approaches, notable progress in the past 10 years, and the main restrictions for regional drought risk management. Within these contexts, this chapter discusses the role of earth observations and open-source tools in supporting drought mitigation efforts in the MENA region. Satellite reanalysis products which provide meteorological estimations help circumvent challenges related to limited meteorological data coverage, record gaps, and data accessibility. Open-source versions provide API capabilities and near-real time observations which could facilitate early warning systems. Increasingly popular sources like NASA’s POWER platform, has been recommended with lesser restrictions on their use in drought analysis following validation studies in the MENA. Potential utilities include drought characterization in terms of intensity, duration, and frequency. Open-source reanalysis products also extend to provide proxy for impact data, such as biomass productivity, which are scarcer and comprise a much bigger challenge in drought vulnerability assessments. FAO’s WaPOR platform is a prominent example, and institutionalization at national level in the MENA region has been supported by FAO which could significantly improve drought assessment capabilities. Gridded visualization of drought vulnerability based on both drought characterization and impact data is also available through the PRISM tool. Complementary tools to help identify more specific impacts include crop simulation and climate models. Capacity building and training is essential to fully utilize emerging tools due to the wide range of their applications.

7. Chapter 6. Assessing Critical Infrastructure Exposure to Sea Level Rise and Land Subsidence Under Climate Change: The Cases of Venice and Fiumicino Airports and Marghera Harbour (Italy)

   Marco Anzidei, Tommaso Alberti, Daniele Trippanera, Cristiano Tolomei, Massimo Chiappini

   Abstract

   Climate change-induced sea level rise threatens coastal infrastructures, particularly in densely populated and economically significant regions such as the Mediterranean. This study examines the exposure of three Italian coastal areas where ports, airports, buildings, tourist infrastructures, and communication networks are exposed to sea level rise. We focus on the major international airports of Venice Marco Polo and Rome Fiumicino Leonardo Da Vinci, located close to sea level, and the important commercial harbor of Porto Marghera, near Venice. These hubs are essential for global connectivity and economy but are becoming increasingly vulnerable to coastal flooding, storm surges, and extreme weather events due to ongoing global warming. Using recent projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and high-resolution Digital Elevation Models, we assess the potential inundation risks up to 2150 AD under different sea level rise scenarios, considering the high-emission Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5. By analyzing these critical transport nodes' projected impacts and adaptive capacity, we highlight the urgent need for coordinated action to mitigate climate risks in Mediterranean coastal zones. Our study underscores the importance of integrating climate resilience into long-term infrastructure planning to safeguard people, economy, social stability, and environmental areas in the investigated region.

8. Chapter 7. Natural Risk Assessment and Management in in Hexagonal France and Europe

   Stephane Guillot, Tanguy Jonville

   Abstract

   Hexagonal France’s diverse geography, from mountains to coastlines, contributes to a high prevalence of natural risks, affecting most of the population. Climate change is exacerbating these risks, with rising temperatures leading to more frequent and intense events like heatwaves, storms, floods, and wildfires. In this paper, we detail specific risks in Hexagonal France. Coastal Risks: erosion, flooding, and storms threaten coastal areas, driven by rising sea levels and human activity. Mountain Risks: the Alps and Pyrenees experience heavy rainfall, increasing the risk of floods and landslides. Other Risks: wildfires are a major concern in southern France, while earthquakes and tsunamis pose threats, particularly in the Mediterranean region. France has a risk management framework involving prevention plans, local and national response coordination, and civil protection forces. However, the increasing frequency and severity of these events, coupled with budget constraints, necessitate a rethinking of risk prevention policies and better integration of scientific knowledge and socioeconomic factors. International cooperation, particularly within the Euro-Mediterranean region and the EU, is crucial for addressing these shared vulnerabilities.

9. Chapter 8. Harnessing Satellite and Digital Technologies for Climate Action: The Case of Jordan

   Ruba Ajjour

   Abstract

   This paper seeks to highlight the role of satellite and digital technologies in climate action, with a focus on the Jordanian context. It also outlines national vulnerabilities, recent advancements in climate modeling and data analysis, and presents applied case studies, including urban resilience planning and AI-driven climate forecasting. Moreover, it explores how the integration of satellite and digital technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), can play a transformative role in monitoring, managing, and mitigating climate risks in Jordan. The paper concludes with recommendations for overcoming challenges and scaling technology integration in climate governance and adaptation strategies.

10. Chapter 9. EO Integrated Services to Monitor and Mitigate Geohazards: Contribute from INGV Center for Space Observations of Earth

    Maria Fabrizia Buongiorno, Giorgiana De Franceschi, Vincenzo Romano, Carlo Marcocci, Simone Atzori, Stefano Corradini, Simona Scollo, Giuseppe Puglisi

    Abstract

    The increasing population and human activities produce an impact on the terrestrial environment and increase the risk due to geohazards on infrastructures affecting the sustainability of development models for human society. As we live in a very global environment it is necessary to consider that extreme weather events, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions may produce an amplification of the effects both in space (territory) and in time (long term effects) dimensions. In Europe since the creation of the Coperinicus Monitoring System, former Global Monitoring Environment and Security (GMES). The Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) has actively contributed in the last 30 years to the development of space technologies both in the Earth Observation sector (including all available Optical and SAR imaging systems) and in the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) sector, allowing the INGV to play a role of excellence both for the study of satellite missions and for the development and supply of operational products for end-users. In 2020 INGV established the Center for Space Observations of Earth (COS) with the aim of coordinating the INGV activities in the Space and Aerospace sector. The COS contributes to the strategy of INGV Departments, namely Environment, Earthquakes and Volcanoes, and the INGV Sections/Volcano Observatories by adding specific products and services based on space observations to assist monitoring, surveillance, research and services for the society regarding Earth processes. In 2022 the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) offered specific funding for the Space Sector which will permit to build, in the next 3 years, both the COS infrastructures (ICT platform) and new research activities to further develop the COS modules, as well as reinforce the cooperation with industrial partners by to provide a series of complementary activities which could improve the national expertise and technological transfer in with a consequent advantage for all the space sector chain supporting the mitigation and monitor of Geohazards at National and Global level.