The Correlation Between Wind Disaster Events and Wind Induced Damage to Structures in Indonesia

Strong winds are recognized as a predominant factor contributing to disasters in Indonesia, exerting a significant impact on infrastructure across various sectors. However, there is limited documentation of wind damage and wind speed observation data. This study addresses these gaps by estimating wind speeds during disasters using ERA5 reanalysis and constructing fragility curves based on 454 documented damage cases from BNPB’s national disaster data collection (2021–2023). The analysis reveals disparities between the occurrence of wind disasters and the extent of damage across Indonesian provinces. Notably, East Nusa Tenggara experienced disproportionately high damage despite fewer recorded wind events, attributed to extreme winds during Cyclone Seroja. The fragility curve demonstrates a correlation between wind speed and infrastructure vulnerability, with a 50% probability of building damage at 7.76 m/s and 90% at 11.46 m/s—both below the thresholds in the Indonesian National Design Standard. The study also highlights challenges in the quality and completeness of BNPB’s disaster data, as well as potential inaccuracies in ERA5, introducing uncertainties in assessing wind disaster impacts. These findings underscore the importance of accurate and comprehensive data to improve Indonesia’s National Wind Load Standard and support the development of resilient infrastructure to mitigate wind-induced disasters.