The Drones Race and International Security

Table of Contents

1. Frontmatter

2. Chapter 1. Introduction: Drones and International Security in the Age of Manned Aircraft

   Mohammad Eslami, Lauro Borges

   Abstract

   The introduction chapter lays the conceptual groundwork for understanding the strategic significance of drones in contemporary military affairs. It highlights the growing importance of the global drone race while cautioning against exaggerated claims of a revolution, noting that drones complement rather than replace traditional airpower such as fighter jets. The chapter also introduces the Offense–Defense Balance (ODB) theory as a key analytical lens for assessing the impact of drones on military stability and escalation dynamics. Finally, it outlines the structure of the book, detailing how each chapter contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the political, strategic, and technological implications of unmanned systems in global security.

3. Chapter 2. Drone Wars: A Historical Analysis

   Mohammad Eslami, Lauro Borges

   Abstract

   This chapter presents a historical analysis of drone warfare, charting the evolution of unmanned aerial systems from rudimentary remote-controlled technologies to today’s advanced, networked, and increasingly autonomous platforms that dominate contemporary conflict zones. It argues that understanding the trajectory of drone development requires a long-term perspective, recognizing that drones are not merely post-9/11 innovations but products of enduring technological, doctrinal, and strategic trends in military history. By combining empirical historical research with analytical insight, the chapter lays a critical foundation for assessing the strategic significance of drones in international security. It also frames the broader themes explored in subsequent chapters, including the accelerating drone arms race, its global security implications, and the shifting nature of warfare in an era defined by autonomous aerial technologies.

4. Chapter 3. The Offense–Defense Balance and the Drones Race: A Theoretical Background on Anarchy, Survival, and Missions

   Mohammad Eslami, Lauro Borges

   Abstract

   This chapter proposes a structural realist perspective to the drones race and explores the offense–defense balance (OBD) as a framework to understand how different categories of drones can add value to the ability of states to perform offensive and defensive missions. Employing the ODB to analyze drone warfare highlights how these platforms can simultaneously augment offensive reach and defensive awareness. The resulting ambiguity challenges policymakers and military strategists to navigate a security landscape where technology evolves rapidly, and the boundaries between attack and defense grow increasingly porous.

5. Chapter 4. Frontiers of the Drone Industry: Major Powers and the Evolution in Air Warfare

   Mohammad Eslami, Lauro Borges

   Abstract

   This chapter explores the evolution of drone industries among major powers—specifically the United States, China, and Russia—and their implications for international security. It examines how UAV technologies have shaped military doctrines by enhancing surveillance, precision targeting, and strategic deterrence. Drawing on the offense–defense balance (ODB), the chapter analyzes how drones (mainly those that can be mass produced and be more affordably replaceable) can be affecting the strategic equilibrium toward the offense by lowering operational costs and enabling rapid, remote engagements. The United States’ integration of drones into network-centric warfare, China’s fusion of commercial and military innovation, and Russia’s wartime adaptation in Ukraine all illustrate divergent yet converging paths toward UAV centrality in modern conflict.

6. Chapter 5. Proliferation of Military Drones in Regional and Middle Powers

   Mohammad Eslami, Lauro Borges

   Abstract

   This chapter examines the proliferation of military drones among regional and middle powers, with a focus on Turkey, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, India, Ukraine, and other European countries. Turkey’s development of a robust drone industry is explored, highlighting its strategic use of foreign technology while fostering indigenous innovation to enhance its military capabilities. The chapter also analyzes Iran’s reverse engineering of foreign drones, which has enabled it to strengthen its defense sector. Israel’s reliance on US technology, combined with its own developments, positions the country as a leading drone exporter with a significant impact on global security dynamics. Furthermore, the chapter explores the most advanced drone-producing nations and the high-impact drones currently in service, examining their technological innovations and operational effectiveness. The analysis underscores the growing role of these middle powers in shaping modern air warfare and arguably the international security landscape. Arguing that there is an international drone race, this contribution aims to provide broad insights into the major military-technological developments of regional powers.

7. Chapter 6. Drones Beyond the State: Non-state Actors and the Evolving Threat Landscape

   Mohammad Eslami, Lauro Borges

   Abstract

   This chapter examines the growing role of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the arsenals of non-state actors, including insurgent groups, terrorist organizations, and criminal networks. As drone technology becomes cheaper and more accessible, these actors have adapted UAVs for surveillance, targeted strikes, and psychological operations. The chapter explores the drivers of this trend, offers case studies, and analyzes the broader implications for international security and governance. It argues that the diffusion of drone capabilities beyond state control presents a pressing challenge to existing defense frameworks and global regulatory norms.

8. Chapter 7. Military Drones and the Offense–Defense Balance in Future Wars

   Mohammad Eslami, Lauro Borges

   Abstract

   This chapter explores the transformative potential of emerging drone technologies in future wars. Focusing on innovative programs such as the US Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, the chapter analyzes how drones powered by artificial intelligence are being developed to collaborate with manned fighter jets. These AI-driven drones are expected to work in coordination with human pilots, enhancing combat capabilities and providing new operational advantages. The chapter also discusses the potential for swarm tactics, where large numbers of technologically intensive drones powered by machine learning are deployed to overwhelm existing air defenses, reshaping the future landscape of air warfare and military strategy. However, due to the development of more cost-effective air defenses tailored to fight against drone swarms, the offense–defense balance is not necessarily expected to radically shift toward the offense. Finally, the reinforced connection between cyber and drone warfare is analyzed.

9. Chapter 8. Conclusion: Rewriting the Rules of War

   Mohammad Eslami, Lauro Borges

   Abstract

   This concluding chapter serves a dual function. First, it offers a thematic synthesis of the book’s core arguments, drawing together insights on the evolving role of drones in modern conflict, international security, and geopolitical competition. It highlights how state and non-state actors alike are leveraging unmanned systems to reshape battlefield dynamics, challenge conventional military balances, and alter the frameworks of arms control and deterrence. Second, the chapter introduces two critical issues that received limited attention in previous chapters but are of growing importance: the expansion of drone technologies beyond the aerial domain into ground (UGVs) and naval platforms (USVs and UUVs) and the transformation of the global drone market. It examines how these developments are reshaping procurement strategies, widening access to unmanned capabilities, and accelerating shifts in the global patterns of military drone transfers. Together, these discussions extend the analytical scope of the book and underscore the need to continually adapt our understanding of unmanned systems as they permeate all dimensions of modern warfare and security policy.