The Dynamics of Complex Urban Systems: Theory and Application of the STASA-Model within the Scatter Project

In order to understand current settlement pattern and its future development the essential characteristics of the interrelated dynamics of the transport system, the urban/regional settlement pattern, demographic effects and the impacts of different policy measures and external effects have to be considered in an interdisciplinary approach. The modelling of the spatio-temporal patterns of a system consisting of different sub-models (population, transport, production, etc.) is used to demonstrate the necessity to link different theoretical frameworks. External shocks may sometimes require a modification of the system under consideration in the sense that new dynamic variables appear or previously useful variables disappear.

Policy advises on the base of different scenarios are useful in a planning context in the attempt to shape the future taking into account different scenario results, instead of just adapting to what may emerge. This procedure is especially important when essential parts of the system cannot be controlled by policy measures and depend on exogenous factors.

For the region of Stuttgart, the model framework was used within the SCATTER project. Four different policy scenarios: reference scenario (no additional policy measure applied); fiscal measures; regulatory measures applied to companies and increase of car use costs will be simulated in an recursive procedure. The results of the different policy measures will be discussed and critically evaluated with respect to urban sprawl and sustainable development aspects. The developed framework can also be used as simulation tool for the estimation of secondary induced traffic impacts.