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The Effect of Immigration on Housing Prices: Evidence from 382 German Districts

  • 10-05-2024

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Abstract

The study examines the effect of immigration on housing prices in Germany using data from 382 districts between 2004 and 2020. It finds that immigration has a significantly positive short-term effect on flat prices and rents, with a 1% increase in migration inflow leading to a 2.5–3% increase in flat prices and a 1% increase in rents. The study uses instrumental variable panel-data analyses to address endogeneity issues and constructs a Bartik instrument based on historical settlement patterns. Notably, the study finds no significant effect on housing prices and no evidence of native out-flight, suggesting that immigrants do not displace natives. The findings have important implications for policymakers seeking to understand the impact of immigration on the housing market.

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Title
The Effect of Immigration on Housing Prices: Evidence from 382 German Districts
Authors
Umut Unal
Bernd Hayo
Isil Erol
Publication date
10-05-2024
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics
Print ISSN: 0895-5638
Electronic ISSN: 1573-045X
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-024-09988-x
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