The Effects of Sustainability-Driven Policies on Transport CO₂ Production: High-Speed Rail Transportation as an Alternative to Passenger Air Transport

The purpose of this study is to evaluate to which extent the rail transport mode can improve the environmental situation in Europe if it were to be at the centre of sustainability-driven policies. In particular, it aims at estimating a relative picture of the CO₂ emissions generated by short-distance air passenger transportation in Europe, which could have been transferred to high-speed rail and produce less CO₂. This study follows a three-step methodology. Firstly, it calculates the number of passengers travelling on each route between cities and estimates the total CO₂ emissions. Subsequently, it leverages the current literature on CO₂ consumption from railway passenger transport. Lastly, it estimates the possible scenarios in terms of CO₂ emissions that would have followed adequate sustainability-driven policies. The study found that short-range aviation in EU28 produced 9.2 million tons of CO₂ in 2017, which represents about 5% of total aviation emission, about 1% of total transport emission and about 0.2% of total CO₂emission. Furthermore, the CO₂ production on the 175 routes analysed increased until 2019, while precise policies could have allowed saving 582 MT CO₂. The effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on the European transport sector increases the relevance of this study. To avert the “return to normality” vis a vis Greenhouse Gases (hereinafter “GHG”) emissions from the sector, it will be necessary to introduce structural changes. As Austrian Airlines or KLM bailouts show, environmental concerns might finally influence the decision-making process on public transportation. In the context of a green recovery, this study not only lays the foundation for further contributions addressing the CO₂ production from EU-wide sectors but also underlines the role the railway can play in environmentally friendly transportation.