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2017 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

4. The Future for Copper and Coal

Authors : Barry Golding, Suzanne D. Golding

Published in: Metals, Energy and Sustainability

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

Although sustainability was popularised in the late twentieth century, it was also a concern in the late eighteenth century as evidenced in the writings of Thomas Malthus. In his sixteenth century text, De Re Metallica, Georgio Agricola also addressed the environmental impacts of mining. Although copper mining on the Iberian Peninsula took place over thousands of years, no single copper ore body will last forever. The question ‘is copper mining sustainable?’ is addressed by examining previous research into the question and exploring various methods researchers have used. The statement that an activity is sustainable if it enhances or at least does not decrease human welfare now or in the future implies that the relative cost of producing copper will not increase. More precisely, ‘will the future cost of producing copper including environmental cost increase or decrease?’ U.S. data indicate that in the past technological advances have reduced the energy required to mine and concentrate copper ores even though ore grades have decreased. In 2002, the cost of producing copper was less than in 1954. An econometric model predicts that the unit cost of producing copper in the U.S. in 2020 will be less than in 2002. What happens after 2020 is less predictable.

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Footnotes
1
For a geometric sequence, the ratio between two consecutive terms is constant. In an arithmetic sequence, the difference between two consecutive terms is constant. Our age is an arithmetic series, each year we get a year older. Our savings in the bank, assuming they earn a fixed interest rate, grow geometrically.
 
2
Shale oil is extracted out of oil-bearing shales from which the oil will not naturally flow freely. Shale oil has become more accessible due to advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing or ‘fracking’ technology.
 
3
The Olduvai Gorge is a picturesque valley that extends east to west within the Serengeti National Park in northern Tanzania. Duncan (2001) chose the name ‘Olduvai’ because it is famous for the myriad of hominid fossils and stone tools discovered there and it is a good metaphor for the Stone Age way of life.
 
4
Flanders and Swann present a humorous explanation of entropy that may be found on the WWW under ‘First and Second Law’.
 
5
The fast breeder reactor produces fissionable plutonium-239 from non-fissionable uranium-238. Non-fissionable uranium-238 is over 100 times more abundant than fissionable U-235. Breeder reactors produce more plutonium-239 than current conventional reactors. Plutonium-239 has a half-life of 24,000 years and can be used to make nuclear weapons. The report ‘The Future of Nuclear Power’ (Beckjord 2003) recommended giving priority to the once-through fuel cycle (conventional reactors) rather than the development of more expensive fast breeder reactors.
 
6
The project to build a nuclear fusion reactor, estimated to cost €5bn, was announced in 2005. Construction of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) commenced at Cadarache in Southern France in 2008. In 2010, the European Union and six member states reached a deal on the financing and timetable for the experimental nuclear fusion reactor, which was then estimated to cost €16bn (McGrath 2010). Sadly, the first full-power fusion is not expected before 2035 and the current cost estimate is some €19bn (De Clercq 2016).
 
7
Elasticity of substitution measures how easy it is to substitute one product for another. For the precise economic definition see Pigou (1934).
 
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Metadata
Title
The Future for Copper and Coal
Authors
Barry Golding
Suzanne D. Golding
Copyright Year
2017
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51175-7_4