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2023 | Book

Setting the Scenery: Factors Affecting the Future Read chapter Read first chapter

The Future of the Greek Economy

Economic Development Through 2035

Authors: Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Book Series : The Political Economy of Greek Growth up to 2030

Part of: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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About this book

This book introduces the Political Economy of Alternative Economic Futures for the Greek economy up to 2035. The analysis is not restricted to the presentation of a series of forecasts but aims to develop a comprehensive framework for Greece’s future. The analysis covers five realms regarding alternative economic futures, which outline the political economy of Greece: sustainable development; sustainable governance; inclusive growth; evolution of human behaviors; and dynamic growth. A growth, an unsustainable growth, a transformation, and a falldown scenario are generated based on the severity of key-uncertainty factors' effects.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter

Alternative Futures Analysis

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Setting the Scenery: Factors Affecting the Future
Abstract
The future is a fluid state which is constructed by the past, the present, and the expectations—and hopes—for what is coming ahead. History is, thus, important. The current chapter provides a comprehensive examination of the significance of history in scenario development, which serves as a means for forecasting the future. Given that history connects the past with the present, we focus on the recent historical events that shaped the economic future for the next ten years. The connectors of the present with the future are the several economic and social drivers in the form of megatrends—which, in many cases, are being accelerated by economic shocks. Hence, we explore how such drivers generate new realities in the economic, social, and political realms. Following this reasoning process, we are able to answer the question posed regarding which historical events are essential when envisioning the future.
Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola
Chapter 2. Building Scenarios: The Four Economic Scenarios for Greek Alternative Economic Futures
Abstract
The present chapter unfolds in an informative and practical manner the “art” of forecasting and scenario building. To that end, the present chapter theoretically and practically debates a step-by-step process in scenario building with the aim of generating four possible scenarios for Greece in the next decade. First, we discuss the theoretical implications and assumptions involved in scenario planning. For the practical illustration of the four scenarios, we use the Oxford Global Economic Model (GEM) and we describe its basic characteristics and baseline scenario. The subsequent sections of this chapter present the four generated scenarios. Following that, the analysis regards the growth scenario into two versions, as well as the three scenarios left; the transformation, the unsustainable growth scenario, and the downfall. Lastly, the chapter concludes the present chapter with a synopsis of the four scenarios and a brief note on certain insights regarding scenario building.
Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola
Chapter 3. Scenarios and Contextual Factors: Addressing the Implications
Abstract
The aim of this chapter is to highlight the importance of a series of contextual factors for the future and provide a critical analysis of the matter. By “contextual factors” we refer to a wide umbrella of terms that shape system dynamics. Some of these factors evolve dynamically but others are the product of shocks in the system. We also call these “swinging factors” because, despite their importance, it is difficult to incorporate them into a scenario by quantifying their effects. To that end, we focus on factors which affect human action in a dynamic way, such as culture, collective social values, goals, and priorities. Additionally, we refer to the impact of high and irreducible uncertainty on individuals’ expectations. Lastly, rather than offering concluding remarks, we attempt to speculate on which scenario is more probable to prevail provided that catastrophic developments will not take place.
Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola

The Past and the Present of the Greek economy

Frontmatter
Chapter 4. Sustainable Development
Abstract
In this chapter, importance is given to issues on population evolution, environment, renewable energy sources, and natural resources for the case of Greece, highlighting the opportunities and threats observed for a sustainable development path. Sustainable development requires a series of developments related to adequate population growth, environmental sustainability, renewable energy sources that can provide an opportunity to boost the economy significantly, and the existence and utilization of natural resources. Despite significant weaknesses, Greece has significantly improved its sustainable development status over the past decades.
Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola
Chapter 5. Sustainable Governance
Abstract
The effectiveness of governance is a particularly critical issue related to the policy implemented and the development trajectory followed by any economy. In fact, given that geostrategic and economic developments at the global level have changed how governments now intervene in the formation of economies, the state’s role in economies and societies has been significantly redefined. The concept of sustainable governance promotes a long-term view of public policy in such a way as to take into account the interests of future generations. This stems from the international community’s admission that the current economic development should not hinder the future, just as it should not transfer debts and problems to future societies. In this chapter, the evolution over time of the governance quality indicators as compiled and presented by the World Bank are presented, as well as Greece’s corruption and economic freedom. Finally, the terrorism and money laundering issue is presented.
Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola
Chapter 6. Inclusive Growth
Abstract
The need to shift to a model of economic development that does not undermine social cohesion is now universally recognized. This happens as the well-being of citizens that fuels economic growth is shaped to a great extent by non-income factors that are nevertheless necessary for the exploitation and creation of economic opportunities. Adopting Inclusive Growth, this chapter focuses on factors that affect access to opportunities with implications for social organization, social convergence, and individual agency. These factors play a decisive role in economies moving into a sustainable period of Growth. Thus, this chapter presents the situation of the labor market and the opportunities associated with it, the case of education, the situation of households, the issue of poverty, and the issue of inequalities. Finally, the analysis concludes with a description of the state of health of the Greek population.
Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola
Chapter 7. Cultural Change and Development and Growth
Abstract
Greek society was particularly affected by the recessionary conditions that affected the economy during the last decade but also by the intense conditions of uncertainty, such as the 2008 debt crisis, political instability, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the energy crisis that exacerbated it. These conditions influenced and continue to influence not only the Greek social environment but also the political trends of the society and economic attitudes, shaping in this way the cultural evolution of Greek society. The chapter's purpose is to present Greek society's attitudes and behaviors. For this purpose, how Greek society judges the current situation they are experiencing is presented, as well as the society's expectations for the coming months, the degree of trust in various institutions, and the insecurity and the emergence of post-materialist tendencies in Greek society.
Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola
Chapter 8. The Dynamism of the Economy
Abstract
This chapter describes the evolution of crucial figures for the Greek economy and, through this analysis, captures a clear picture of how the Greek economy has been led to the state it was in at the end of 2022. The purpose is to highlight the dynamism of the economy so that to be able to clarify the need for structural changes so that the economy not only creates more jobs but also creates more opportunities for members of society, with the focus being on people and the exploitation of the advantages of the economy. It presents the issue of the output gap for the economy, the external sector, and the evolution of consumption, investments, and savings. Moreover, the real estate market is presented, but also of the production of the manufacturing sector, the situation in public finances and public debt, and the question of the economy's productivity.
Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola

Alternative Futures for Greece: The Five Scenarios Under the Five Pillars of Economic Development

Frontmatter
Chapter 9. Alternative Economic Futures and Sustainable Development
Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola
Chapter 10. Sustainable Governance and Alternative Economic Futures
Abstract
Globally, economies are facing the consequences of three different forms of crisis: the crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic and fiscal crises (see Chapter 3), and the environmental crisis that has prompted climate change with the potentially existential threat to the planet. With this wave of uncertainty shocks experienced by economies around the world, some to a lesser extent and others to a greater extent, it is clear that the world is now at a turning point. It is still being determined whether the world will eventually be able to recover or whether the current situation will manage to perpetuate itself.
Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola
Chapter 11. The Impact of Alternative Economic Futures on Inclusive Growth
Abstract
Over the decades, remarkable progress has been made on inclusiveness issues in the global economy, notably thanks to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. However, gaps and challenges remain. Many individuals are still trapped in a vicious cycle of marginalization in economic, social, and political life. Many children are significantly behind in education, young people and adults with disabilities do worse than their non-disabled peers, etc. If in the future new technologies are well developed, following an inclusive approach for all, they could be significant factors that benefit all people. However, the digital divide and other technological gaps still exist, excluding rather than including people with disabilities.
Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola
Chapter 12. Cultural Change and Alternative Futures
Abstract
Cultural change can be modeled as a Darwinian evolutionary process in which some cultural values become more common and others decline.
Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola
Chapter 13. The Dynamism of the Economy and the Alternative Futures
Abstract
This chapter attempts to outline the possible outcomes of the future regarding the course of the dynamic development of the Greek economy. For this purpose, the possible developments until 2035 are presented through the five scenarios considered in this book. The issue of the output gap for the economy is presented, as well as the external sector of the economy, followed by the evolution of consumption, and the evolution of investments. Moreover, the picture of the housing market is presented, but also of the production of the manufacturing sector, the situation in public finances and public debt, and the economy’s productivity question.
Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola
Backmatter
Metadata
Title
The Future of the Greek Economy
Authors
Panagiotis E. Petrakis
Pantelis C. Kostis
Kyriaki I. Kafka
Anna-Maria Kanzola
Copyright Year
2023
Electronic ISBN
978-3-031-26872-4
Print ISBN
978-3-031-26871-7
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-26872-4