The Geopolitics of the EU’s Decarbonization Strategy: A Bird’s Eye Perspective

In the twenty-first century, there has been a strong tendency to look at international energy relations in terms of geopolitical power. Control over energy resources or pipelines is seen as a significant geopolitical asset. In this context, the EU plays a peculiar role as a major energy consumer but marginal producer, rendering it dependent on imports. With an ambitious decarbonization objective set for 2050, however, the EU’s position and that of its energy suppliers is bound to change. But how? At first sight, if we copy today’s dominant images of control over resources, the answer may seem obvious. Countries with many hours of sun, abundant wind, hydropower or biomass could be expected to grow stronger, and traditional suppliers of oil and gas relatively weaker. The reality is far more complex and outcomes are dependent on a wide variety of factors, from commercial choices to technological developments. Even more, the question of geopolitics is not purely a matter of facts and data. It is equally a matter of perception, of framing developments on regional and global energy markets in a wider context.