The need for willingness and opportunity: analyzing where and when environmental variability influences conflict in the Sahel

Researchers and policymakers often claim that harsh climate conditions intensify the risk of armed conflict by acting as a “threat multiplier.” Yet, new data reveal that locations with seasonal environmental variations face higher conflict risk than locations with permanently harsh climate, e.g., due to the ability of populations accustomed to harsh climatic conditions to develop adaptation practices. Focusing on the Sahel, we investigate underexplored relationships between the location and timing of environmental and agricultural resource variability, and their impact on conflict. We argue that in Sahara Desert transition locations, harsh climate gives people a greater willingness to engage in competitive violence over resources compared with other locations. However, this will happen only in times of relatively high levels of environmental security and agricultural resource abundance, which give people the opportunity to act on these incentives. We test this argument on a new monthly dataset of 0.5 by 0.5-degree grid cells covering the entire African continent and find robust support for our expectations. In illustrating that both spatially and temporally disaggregated data are necessary for understanding climate-conflict relationships, our findings delineate new directions of research and policymaking.