The risk of guaranteed savings in energy performance contracts in the EU and Polish perspective

The 2023 revised Energy Efficiency Directive raises the EU energy efficiency target, making it binding for EU countries to collectively ensure an additional 11.7% reduction in energy consumption by 2030, compared to the 2020 reference scenario projections. The Directive highlights the exemplary role of the public sector in the energy efficiency improvement process, particularly with regard to buildings and public procurement. The regulation makes the use of energy performing contracting mandatory for the renovation of large public buildings and the promotion of exemplary EPC solutions. Given the growing popularity of the EPC model, in-depth research into various aspects of the EPC projects will become necessary. One of the important features of the EPC model is the achievement of guaranteed energy savings. With this comes risk, which is often transferred to energy service providers. The main purpose of the article is to analyze the provisions of the EED and Eurostat with regard to Polish regulations, in the context of the risk of guaranteed energy savings. The article conducted a literature review, an analysis of EED regulations, Eurostat guidelines and Polish regulations, guidelines, and contract models, in terms of the risk of guaranteed energy savings. In addition, Polish EPC project stakeholders were interviewed. The results show that the EED does not require ESCOs to bear the risk of guaranteed savings, which aims to ensure that EPC projects generate savings regardless of the obligated entity. The paths to this goal under EPC may vary. Nevertheless, it seems that from the point of view of public entities, the desirable model is to transfer this risk to the ESCO. Polish regulations, for example, in principle assume the transfer of this risk to the ESCO. In contrast, the detailed approach varies depending on the specific stakeholder group of EPC projects.