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2015 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

5. The Syr Darya River Basin

Author : Beatrice Mosello

Published in: How to Deal with Climate Change?

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The second case presented in this book is the Syr Darya River basin, a transboundary watershed feeding with its glacier-melt waters most of the Central Asia region. In the first part, this chapter introduces the main geographical and socio-economic characteristics of the Syr Darya River basin as well as of the country where it originates and flows: Kyrgyzstan. Subsequently, the analysis shifts towards considering water resources management within the broader regional context of Central Asia. There, in fact, transboundary waters have been the very protagonists of diplomatic and political relations between the five Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan all since their independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. As a consequence, their water governance systems are strongly interrelated, and can in no way be considered in isolation from one another. In the second part of this chapter, the key factors that determine and explain the vulnerability of the Syr Darya River basin, and of Kyrgyzstan more specifically, to the impacts of climate change are outlined, and a first analysis of the adaptive capacity of its institutional framework, based on the results of expert interviews, is presented. We find that, influenced by international actors, a decentralisation approach was adopted after independence in the Kyrgyz water sector, with increased roles and responsibilities being delegated at subnational levels. Nevertheless, the institutional and policy framework for water resources management remained fragmented and poorly implemented. Climate change adaptation is not yet on the political agenda and mostly occurs in an ad-hoc manner with stimulus from international donors and agencies. In addition, it is suggested that water resources management in the region is strongly dependent on social and political factors, rather than on more technical concerns such as information sharing or infrastructure.

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Footnotes
1
For more information and statistical data on these macroeconomic parameters and their evolution, refer to (UNDP 2010, p 70).
 
2
For more information on land reform and privatisation processes in the agricultural sector, see (Bichsel et al. 2009).
 
3
The power generation infrastructure is made up of 17 electric stations with a combined capacity of 3,680 MW, including 15 hydro-electric stations (2,950 MW) and two thermo-electric stations (730 MW) (Juraev 2009, p 5). The five major hydro-electric power generator plants are located on the Naryn River below the Toktogul Reservoir, which together accounts for 97 % of the country’s total hydropower capacity. The two thermo-electric plants located in Bishkek and Osh generate electricity and heating for these towns and the surrounding areas. In addition, the Karambata 1 and 2 power plants are under construction on the Naryn River, above the Toktogul Reservoir. The construction of these plants started in the 1980s, but was not completed due to the fall of the Soviet Union, and was resumed only in 2007. In 2006 the electricity production amounted to 14.3 billion kWh (FAO AQUASTAT 2012).
 
4
The Amu Darya is formed in Tajikistan from two tributaries, the Vaksh River, which rises in Tajikistan, and the Pyanch River, which also rises in Tajikistan and forms part of Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan. Thereafter, it flows through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan before terminating into the Aral Sea. The Syr Darya is formed from two tributaries: the Naryn River and the Kara Darya, both of which rise in Kyrgyzstan. From Kyrgyzstan, the Syr Darya flows downstream to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan before terminating in the Aral Sea. In addition, the Chui and Talas Rivers are shared between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, while a number of smaller rivers flow from Kyrgyzstan into China (Allouche 2004, p 46).
 
5
Central Asia, because of its particularly harsh climate and geographic configuration (the arid climate made it difficult to develop agriculture, and the region’s distance from the sea cut it off from the main routes of international trade), was traditionally inhabited by nomadic populations from the steppe. The first forms of political power and unity were brought about by merchants travelling over the famous Silk Road, which, lying at the heart of Central Asia, connected Europe to China. Starting from the end of the sixteenth century, the development of firearms rendered nomadic populations powerless against the domination attempts of neighbouring Russia and China, which by the end of the nineteenth century had taken complete control over the region. The Eastern part of Central Asia, known as East Turkistan or Xinjiang, was incorporated into China; Mongolia and Afghanistan remained independent, but the former became a Soviet satellite state, and the latter was invaded in 1979. The rest of the Central Asian region was incorporated into the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1918. During the Soviet rule, Central Asia was heavily industrialised, and intensive cotton irrigation was introduced especially in the Fergana Valley. This translated into the construction of modern infrastructure, but also the suppression of local cultures, hundreds of thousands of deaths from failed collectivisation programs, and a lasting legacy of ethnic tensions and environmental problems that still live on today, more than 20 years after the Soviet republics of Central Asia finally became independent. For a more complete history of Central Asia, see, for example: (Dani and Masson 2000) and (Ram 2000).
 
6
As Kyrgyzstan can receive very little irrigation water from Toktogul Reservoir, its interests would be best served by an operating regime that keeps the gates closed in spring and summer and releases water to generate electricity during the winter months. However, the spring and summer precisely correspond to the seasons in which Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan need water for irrigation (Hodgson 2010).
 
7
On 11–14 June 2010, the region of Osh in Southern Kyrgyzstan was affected by violent turmoil, following the revolutionary movement that, a few months before (April 2010), had overthrown President Kurmanbek Bakiyev from power. More specifically, “an explosion of violence, destruction and looting in southern Kyrgyzstan killed many hundreds of people, mostly Uzbeks, destroyed over 2000 buildings, mostly homes, and deepened the gulf between the countrys ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks” (ICG 2010, p 3).
 
8
These projections are confirmed in the most recent 5th IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) (IPCC 2014a).
 
9
These projections refer to the B2-MESSAGE emissions scenario, which is the one that accounts for the minimal value of CO2 concentration by the year 2100 among scenarios of the B2 family with more moderate economic and demographic parameters. Instead, according to the A2-ASF scenario (that accounts for the maximal value of CO2 concentration by the year 2100 among scenarios of the A2 family with more moderate economic and demographic parameters), the average annual changes of temperature will vary from 4.7 to 7.8 °C (Kyrgyz Government 2009, p 110).
 
10
In Arabic, mirab means ‘water master’, while bashi means ‘head’. The mirab bashi and mirabs were elected and paid by the peasant farms, depending on the degree of the water users’ satisfaction with their work (O’Hara 2000, p 373).
 
11
Following the national referendum of 27th June 2010, a new constitution has transformed Kyrgyzstan from the Presidential regime into being a Parliamentary Republic.
 
12
In total, there are six Oblast Basin Management Departments (OBMD) in Kyrgyzstan, established in 1997 in correspondence with hydrological boundaries (approximately) – this particular configuration of the OBMDs (which later on turned useful towards the implementation of IWRM principles) was due to the Soviet organisation of water canals, which were all built within one oblast. Within OBMDs, there are a number of RayVodKhozes, or Rayon Water Administrations, which distribute water to secondary and tertiary canals. However, the RayVodKhozes are not structured according to the hydrological boundaries, which creates an important incoherence in the system (Tursunaliev 2002).
 
13
It should be noted that in order to regulate the relationship between international donors and the Kyrgyz government, a Joint Country Support Strategy (JCSS) has been developed as a joint effort of: ADB, the Swiss Development Cooperation, DFID, the World Bank Group, the United Nations Agencies, the Government of Germany, and the European Commission. The JCSS presents the core strategy of the major seven development partners to support the development agenda of Kyrgyzstan for the period 2007–2010, and covers environmental, agriculture and rural development, and governance issues (JCSS 2006).
 
14
A complete list of the interviews that have been conducted is presented in Appendix.
 
15
The specific number of references (in absolute and relative terms) for each determinant and category is presented in Appendix.
 
16
According to the Joint Country Support Strategy of 2006, Kyrgyzstan also suffers from the problem of salary-related loss of trained staff to other bodies or donor organisations, which affects the potential for capacity-building. It is recognised that while the mobility of trained staff within the country is not necessarily a loss to the national economy, it can slow down or disrupt implementation of certain projects and programs (JCSS 2006).
 
17
Data were derived from a personal interview that the researcher conducted with the Director of the Rural Advisory Services in Jalalabad, Kyrgyzstan, on October 18, 2011.
 
18
For example, the World Bank Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) aims at strengthening the capacity of the national hydro meteorological service (Kyrgyzhydromet) to improve the delivery of weather, water and climate information and services.
 
19
Cit. from interview with respondent at international level (international NGO), conducted by the author in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) on October 10, 2011.
 
20
Cit. from interview with respondent at international level (international NGO), conducted by the author in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) on October 10, 2011.
 
21
Cit. from interview with respondent at civil society level (local environmental NGO), conducted by the author in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) on October 14, 2011.
 
22
This was particularly the case in the Akajev and Bakiyev eras, from the independence to 2010. Also after the first open parliamentary elections in 2010, however, the different Ministries continued to be controlled by different political parties, clans and power bases. Loyalty remains fundamentally based on traditional family or ethnic ties, old Soviet party ties, and, more recently, on new loyalties like one’s business circle. Several scholars observed that the 2005 Tulip Revolution was triggered by the strong clientelism that had characterised the ruling of President Akajev, who was able to build a country-wide network of “presidential supervisors” that played as local agents of presidential rule (Huskey 2002). Bakiyev’s regime was not very different, as he continued the well-known pattern of distributing state positions and public offices to members of his family. Fundamentally, the change from Akajev to Bakiyev represented a change of power from one area clan to another, which is the main reason that lies behind the Second Tulip Revolution of April 2010.
 
23
For a report on projects that have been initiated in this sense, see UNISDR (2010).
 
24
According to the Kyrgyz Country Development Strategy (CDS) for 2012–2014 (and reflecting the CDS for 2007–2010), priority should be given to the implementation of several economic reforms aimed at ensuring macroeconomic stability and average annual economic growth, as well as the increase of real income and improvement of health and education services to reduce poverty rates (IMF 2012).
 
25
Cit. from interview with respondent at international level (IO), conducted by the author in Osh (Kyrgyzstan) on October 18, 2011.
 
26
According to a report from the ICG, the reasons for tense relationships on water between the Central Asian countries are the following: (a) regional water systems were designed during the Soviet Union period, while now they are managed by five different states; (b) Central Asian economies are dominated by irrigated agriculture practices, the output of which maintains the ruling elite’s grip on power; (c) Central Asian states have increasingly adopted “zero-sum” positions on water resources and at the same time increased their consumption to unsustainable levels; and (d) downstream countries are militarily and economically stronger than upstream countries, which has produced a power asymmetrical relationship in the region (ICG 2002).
 
27
As an illustration of these claims, it is worth reporting the words of a respondent: “Neighbouring countries have oil, gas, coal and other natural stocks, and in addition they use agricultural fields. Our country has no such stocks, but it has water resources, and these are a gift that we receive every day, and have a great value for us. However, while they are allowed to sell their oil and gas on the market, we have to give away our water resources on “friendly” terms, and this is not fair for us.” Cit. from interview with respondent at local level (water user and member of WUA), conducted by the author in Jalalabad (Kyrgyzstan) on October 16, 2011.
 
28
The GoKR faces significant challenges in terms of achieving efficient and equitable allocation of water resources among competing users within the Kyrgyz Republic and with downstream countries. Under international agreements, Kyrgyzstan is allowed to use 20 % of the total annual water inflows (precipitation) for its own purposes and must leave 80 % in the country’s rivers for downstream countries. In some river basins in Kyrgyzstan, the quantities and timing of release of water to downstream countries is controlled by large hydropower storage reservoirs. In recent years, there have been tensions resulting from Kyrgyzstan’s need to retain water during summer months (when downstream countries need it for irrigation) and release large quantities in winter months for electricity generation (when downstream countries don’t need it – and even resulting in some flooding) (OECD 2011, p 13).
 
29
In April 2010, a popular revolt called for the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, Kurmanbek Saliyevich Bakiyev, to leave the country and resign. Following his departure, people belonging to its clan in the South of the country started using violence as a sign of protest, which transformed in an ethnic unrest against the Uzbek minority in the country.
 
30
For example, Mercy Corps have initiated two long-term development projects that focused on the Fergana Valley (the Community Action Investment Program and the Peaceful Communities Initiative). Both these projects are based on the idea that the potential for conflict can be reduced by addressing some of the basic infrastructure and social needs of the communities through a participatory decision-making process. Also, the SDC had a 4-year peace-building project in the Fergana Valley entitled the “Regional Dialogue and Development Project”, aiming at the prevention of tensions, disputes and conflicts in cross-border areas and multi-ethnic communities of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Other actors involved in conflict resolution in the country, and especially in Southern Kyrgyzstan, are: the Aga Khan Foundation, the Foundation for Tolerance International, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), International Alert, the American University of Central Asia (AUCA), the UNDP, and the SDC. This information is contained in the “Desk Review on Conflict in Southern Kyrgyzstan” produced by ACTED after the June 2010 events in Kyrgyzstan (ACTED 2011).
 
31
For example, the World Bank has engaged in the financing of the urban and water sector in the Kyrgyz Republic since the early 2000s, with the objective of supporting the Kyrgyz government to improve access to basic services. The WB’s current project portfolio in the country addresses basic needs for water supply, sanitation and other urban services over the entire spectrum of urban and rural areas (World Bank 2011c).
 
32
Again, it is worth citing the case of the World Bank’s activities in the country. Through the Second Village Investment Project, the Small Towns Infrastructure Project, the Second Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project, and the Bishkek-Osh Urban Infrastructure Project, the World Bank has: (a) trained more than 64,000 local government officials and community members in principles of budgeting and planning; (b) helped 1,500 villages to improve their social and economic infrastructure; and initiated about 5,000 μ-projects including on drinking water, electricity, primary health facilities and schools (World Bank 2011c).
 
33
According to Schulte (2008), for example, a typical case in point would be the legislation on self-governance, which was supposed to create a basis for decentralisation following on the Western model, but instead resulted in weak implementation and fragmentation in the case of Kyrgyzstan.
 
34
Cit. from interview with respondent at international level (international organisation/donor), conducted by the author in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) on October 28, 2011.
 
35
Cit. from interviews with respondent at international level (three IOs), conducted by the author in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) on November 1–4, 2011.
 
36
Indeed, this is true for all environmental- and natural resources management-related information. As reported in the Joint Country Support Strategy elaborated by donors in 2006, “Although the past decade has seen repeated attempts to improve the quality, relevance and reliability of environmental and natural resources management information, there is a sense that this continues to be collected without a clear purpose in some cases while remaining patchy in areas of great practical importance. A good deal of data reconciliation would be needed but is rarely undertaken as new demands side-line the task of quality checks and interpretation.” (JCSS 2006).
 
37
Cit. from interviews with respondent at civil society level (local NGO), conducted by the author in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) on October 14, 2011.
 
38
Between 1990 and 2010, the number of functioning hydrological monitoring stations (hydro-posts) on rivers in Kyrgyzstan has fallen from 127 to 77. A similar trend has been observed regarding the number of observation boreholes used to monitor the level and quality of ground water (OECD 2011, p 14).
 
39
0.03 KGS/m3 corresponds to approximately USD 0.70 per 1,000 m3. According to the 2010 ADB’s study on “Pricing System and Mechanisms of Irrigation Costs Recovery”, actual costs of O&M of inter-farm systems in Kyrgyzstan would amount to approximately USD 8 per hectare, which means that desired costs exceed actual ones by 2.5–5 times. In addition, the recommended costs would meet only moderate needs to ensure the sustainable operation of irrigation and drainage systems, but these do not secure possibilities for substantial upgrade of the infrastructure (Orolbaev and Valentini 2010, p 11).
 
40
Total investments into these activities are estimated to approximately KGS 1.22 billion, in specific units – approximately KGS 196.5/ha per year (USD 4.8/ha per year). The costs required for the rehabilitation of inter-farm irrigation network are estimated to range from USD 70 to 280 million. At the same time, the scope of annual investments into the technical rehabilitation of inter-farm systems shall be at least USD 15 million (USD 15/ha per year) (Orolbaev and Valentini 2010, p 12).
 
41
Cit. from interview with respondent at local level (WUA Director), conducted by the author in Nookat (Kyrgyzstan) on October 17, 2011.
 
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Metadata
Title
The Syr Darya River Basin
Author
Beatrice Mosello
Copyright Year
2015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-15389-6_5