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Empirical Economics

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04-01-2017

The tree of political violence: a GMERT analysis

Authors: Thomas Bassetti, Raul Caruso, Friedrich Schneider

Published in: Empirical Economics | Issue 2/2018

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Abstract

The aim of this article is to highlight that some economic correlates of Islamist political violence matter differently when they are considered in a specific path. In order to show this, we use a Generalized Mixed Effects Regression Tree analysis. This methodology combines the structure of random effects models for longitudinal data with the flexibility of a tree regression method. The latter is a nonparametric method for estimating a regression function.

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The “Manchester Manual” was found by British police and was considered to be Al Qaeda’s handbook way of operating [http://justice.gov/sites/default/files/ag/legacy/2002/10/08/manualpart1_2.pdf].

Unfortunately, the GTD does not distinguish between transnational and domestic attacks.

By using a negative binomial model and a traditional Hausman test, we do not reject the validity of an RE specification.

We estimate Eq. (2) by using the penalized quasi-likelihood method suggested by Hajjem et al. (2010). In this case, the error term becomes \(v^{-1}\left( {\mu _{it}^b } \right) \varepsilon _{it}\), where \(v^{-1}\left( {\mu _{it}^b } \right) \) is a power function for the relationship between the variance and the predicted means.

For further details on conditional inference trees, see Hothorn et al. (2006).

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Title: The tree of political violence: a GMERT analysis
Authors: Thomas Bassetti
Raul Caruso
Friedrich Schneider
Publication date: 04-01-2017
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Published in: Empirical Economics / Issue 2/2018
Print ISSN: 0377-7332
Electronic ISSN: 1435-8921
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1214-1

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