4.1.1 Background Issues of This Study
In recent years, it has become increasingly evident that various aspects of contemporary cities place too high a burden on the environment. Population, industry, commerce, energy, food consumption, and culture are some of the factors leading to rapid concentrations in urban areas in both developed and developing countries (Wolfram and Frantzeskaki
2016). Therefore, like Bulkeley and Betsill (
2003) and others (Hodson and Marvin
2010; Loorbach et al.
2016; Hodson et al.
2017; Frantzeskaki et al.
2018) have stated, urban sustainability transitions have emerged as an urgent policy agenda concerning possibilities for making fundamental transformative changes on this current trend to keep cities from following unsustainable pathways.
In this regard, since the end of the 1990s, relevant disciplines (e.g., sustainability science, socio-engineering, sustainability transitions, and so forth) have argued the merits of envisioning cities’ sustainable futures and contemplating possible pathways toward realizing such futures (Gallopin et al.
1997; Matsuoka et al.
2001; Glenn and The Future Groups International
2005). Such interests in scenario-making also extend to a wide range of issues including climate change, biodiversity, sustainable development goals (SDGs), and landscape approaches such as
Satoyama and Satoumi, which promote socio-ecological production landscape and seascapes (Tress and Tress
2003; Carpenter et al.
2005; International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
2007; Ten Brink et al.
2010; Kanie
2017).
Among those scenario-makings, many now regard a design method (and also a way of thinking) called “backcasting” (BC), to be particularly promising (Robinson
1990; Dreborg
1996; Mander et al.
2008; Nishioka
2008; Kok et al.
2011; Kishita et al.
2016). BC scenario-making is defined and understood as a series of processes where stakeholders: (1) first craft visions of their ideal and desirable cities whose functioning standards and conditions are to be achieved in a relatively distant future (e.g., the year 2050 or beyond) and (2) think through pathways chronologically backward from the future to the current period in terms of what must be done to realize such visions.
Having received closer attention from both the academic and nonacademic, practical fields, however, the BC methods have the following shortcomings that have not yet been explored (Vergragt and Quist
2011; Kishita et al.
2017). (1) While BC scenario-making has mostly been carried out by relevant experts and professionals, involving lay persons in its process has not yet been researched to a great extent (Kishita et al.
2016; McLellan et al.
2017). Considering the fact that any processes relating to transitioning toward sustainable cities are direct and indirect consequences of collective decisions made by a wide array of stakeholders, nonexperts and nonprofessionals should also take initiatives in BC scenarios (Rotmans et al.
2000; Kasemir et al.
2003; Albert
2008; Umeda
2008; McLellan et al.
2017; Frantzeskaki et al.
2018). (2) The resulted BC scenarios are not yet formally or effectively implemented in practice and not having as much impact as already existing policies and measures. That is partly because it has been difficult to embed such participatory BC scenario-making into ongoing, conventional policy processes (Soria-Lara and Banister
2017; Kishita et al.
2016).
4.1.2 Analytical Perspectives and Research Questions
In order to overcome such shortcomings, researchers must take into consideration the fact that envisioning sustainability of future cities inevitably demands to embrace divergent interests, preferences, and knowledges of various stakeholders (Umeda
2008). That is not only because, as most often said in the field of sustainable science, the concept of sustainability itself reflects a bundle of multiple value systems (Kishita et al.
2010), but also because any cities have their own societal functioning that is of multifaceted configurations working in an interrelated, complementary manner (Hodson et al.
2017). In this regard, letting the general public participate in BC scenario-making certainly makes it more plausible to consider more diverged pluralistic opinions and relevant local knowledge to emerge and be expressed throughout the process (McLellan et al.
2017). After all, the citizens have an ultimate stake and say in the direction of their own future cities, and without ensuring their credible commitments and continuous cooperation in the longer term, there will be no effective endeavor toward urban sustainability transition. Also, the recent arguments on SDGs and biodiversity tend to view participatory approach as essential to empower grassroots citizens whose knowledge and experiences are key enabling elements for successful future visioning (Kanie
2017).
At the same time, however, citizen participatory processes inevitably increase the difficulties to mediate interests of individuals, especially when these interests are not bucked by rational reasoning or public-minded causes. In democratic nations, it has indeed been noted that citizens rather easily follow the majority, occasionally being swallowed up by a tide of enthusiasm. Note also that this type of skepticism, sometimes called “populism,” has constantly been associated with more direct, mass participatory democracy. Though anecdotal, a Japanese local administrative official we once spoke with said: “Most of the time, citizens just demand what they want only for themselves.”
We then must ask how such risk can be reduced and governed to be able to generate more participatory BC scenario-making with a satisfactory level of rational and soundness (van der Heijden
2005) and to mobilize such scenarios as a practical policy tool for developing cities’ sustainable futures, which indicates a need for deep transformative change from the current orientation (Kishita et al.
2018). Therefore, in this chapter, we consider two potentially contrasting perspectives. One is “divergence” found as diverged processes and opinions where such lay individuals as general citizens act as dispersed dots, expressing their pluralistic interests, preferences, and knowledge in processes in an unconstrained manner. The other is “convergence” found as converged outcomes and structures where such a diversified plurality is circumscribed and composed as connected dots, engendering in the scenarios some form of converged context or bases normally found in practical policy documents and texts. Between these two extremes, one may find a trade-off relationship and this is the area on which we will focus to explore if any balance can be upheld.
In answering this question, one should note that resolving the trade-off is expected to be more difficult to achieve using the BC method, especially compared to the more conventional method called “forecasting” (FC). FC has long been the dominant practical method and is of incremental nature and thus more inclined to path-dependency. Under FC methods, policies and measures tend to be planned and made incrementally, allowing them to be based on and drawn from the current version. Thus, reliance on FC can more likely assure the generation of solutions which are compatible to and stable with the ongoing functioning and configurations of the societal system. Nevertheless, literature in sustainability science and sustainability transitions has noted that path-dependency must be overcome for a society to solve so-called “wicked problems” and be transformed into a more sustainable one. Problems are considered wicked in the sense that they only worsen if we take the ongoing functioning and configurations of the current societal system for granted and let solutions be based on and drawn from them (Robinson
1990; Zellner and Campbell
2015; Loorbach et al.
2016).
In contrast, BC is basically understood as methods that can more likely allow greater proactive and pathbreaking changes to be sought and accommodated through scenario-making. This means that the BC methods are more inclined to include divergent ways of thinking, and involve processes where more creative, innovative ideas and thoughts can emerge pluralistically and be expressed (Robinson
1990; Dreborg
1996). In line with this understanding, one study even argues that under the BC method, if it is for the sake of generating scenarios with more edgy, pathbreaking solutions, some degree of gap or incoherence that may be found in causal relationships between means and ends is not necessarily considered to be overly problematic (Kishita et al.
2016). Thus, we explored whether and to what extent such BC scenarios-making could be converged in a reasonably rationalized fashion via engendering some form of sound, coherent bases and structures being attached to the texts of the resulted scenarios (Albert
2008; Alcamo et al.
2008).
Below, the chapter articulates in the second section as to how we designed and implemented a series of workshops (WS) where lay citizens participated and lays out the methods and techniques used to ensure the participants’ unconstrained, spontaneous dialogues while backcasting desirable future city. The third section then explains two verification approaches undertaken to explore the research questions drawn from the above-mentioned perspectives. The one corresponds to “divergence” concern to see if the participants’ values were pluralistically expressed. The other corresponds to “convergence” concern to see if and to what extent coherence can be found. The fourth section provides analytical outputs and relevant discussions. In the final fifth section, we argue as to what the resulted findings mean to the use of backcasting scenario-making in policy practice and also point to the direction of further research and its significance.