The West's Response to the Ukraine War

Table of Contents

1. Frontmatter

2. Chapter 1. Russo-Ukraine War: An Introduction to an Unfinished Project

   Viktor Jakupec

   Abstract

   The Russo-Ukraine War marks a critical juncture in post-Cold War geopolitics, characterised by a nexus of crises that challenge international alliances and geopolitical stabilities. The protracted Russo–Ukraine conflict, combined with rising national populism in the West, underscores the weaknesses of established and prevailing Western norms and institutions. Against this backdrop, it is argued that the Russo-Ukraine War showcases the complexities of power dynamics, strategic interests, and east-west geopolitical rivalries. This chapter analyses the multifaceted layers of the conflict, exploring its military, political, diplomatic, and economic dimensions through the lens of Realist international relations theory. By examining the motivations, actions, and interactions of key actors, such as Russia, Ukraine, NATO, and the EU, this chapter provides a comprehensive understanding of the origins, dynamics, and implications of the Russo-Ukraine War. Through a detailed analysis and contextualisation of broader geopolitical trends, this chapter offers in-depth insights into the complexities of the Russo-Ukraine War.

3. Chapter 2. Origins of the Russo-Ukraine War: A Brief Narrative

   Viktor Jakupec

   Abstract

   Focussing on the political, diplomatic, and economic uncertainties characterising the Russo-Ukraine War, this chapter analyses the ongoing conflict, framing it as a significant and ongoing project marked by geopolitical, geo-economic, and socio-cultural complexities. It is argued that since its inception in 2014 and escalation in 2022, the war has profoundly impacted the regional and global order, shaking up established international relations and security paradigms. Therefore, the chapter critically analyses the historical background of the conflict, including post-Cold War dynamics, Ukrainian national identity, and the interplay of Western and Russian influences. Through the lens of Realist international relations theory, the chapter unpacks the war’s progression, actions taken by key actors, and the ever-shifting political, military, and economic measures, highlighting the fluidity and uncertainties of the war. By embedding the conflict within broader Realist international relations theory frameworks, the chapter provides insights into the implications of the war for the future of the EU and Eastern Europe and the evolving question of Ukraine’s sovereignty.

4. Chapter 3. Trump-Proofing Ukraine Aid: NATO and EU Geopolitics

   Viktor Jakupec

   Abstract

   In the context of the Russo-Ukraine War, this chapter examines the interactions between Donald Trump’s foreign policy, NATO, and the European Union. It focuses on Trump’s criticism of NATO, particularly his concerns over the unequal burden on the USA vis-a-vis limited contributions from European allies. This is contrasted with traditional US foreign policy. The analysis highlights how Trump’s isolationism impacts European unity, especially in the context of the Russo-Ukraine War, while comparing his approach to Biden’s internationalist stance. Trump’s isolationism is contrasted with the legacy of NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg during Trump’s presidency and anticipated challenges for his potential successor, Mark Rutte. Regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election, it is argued that Rutte will face significant difficulties in navigating NATO’s future and advocating for a balanced member states strategy. The chapter concludes by discussing the potential impact of Viktor Orbán’s EU presidency on NATO and EU cohesion, especially in the case of Trump’s second presidential term.

5. Chapter 4. Ukraine Between Aid, Defeat, and Resurgence

   Viktor Jakupec

   Abstract

   This chapter examines the emerging trend of declining military aid to Ukraine from its Western allies. Critical discussions focus on the connection between reduced weapons supplies and the resurgence of aid through alternative methods, prompted by worsening battlefield conditions and dwindling stocks among Western nations. This analysis is set against Russia’s response, highlighting the distinction between short-term, ad-hoc aid and more sustainable, long-term support for Ukraine. The latter raises challenges, contrasting Ukraine’s situation with Russian advances and the renewed optimism for Ukrainian success. The chapter also argues that there is a disconnect between USA and other Western allies’ expectations regarding Ukraine’s military performance, particularly with the Kursk incursion and Russian gains. While the USA and its allies anticipate a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2025, this outcome is questioned due to the uncertain commitment to providing additional military aid throughout 2024.

6. Chapter 5. Seizing Russian Assets: Political Risks and Consequences

   Viktor Jakupec

   Abstract

   The debate over funding Ukraine’s war efforts has led to varied and often unclear policies among Western allies. Key financial sources for aid include Russian sovereign funds held in Western banks, along with financial support plans from the EU and NATO. Some strategies overlap, while others compete with mixed levels of acceptance. This chapter critically examines these funding approaches, starting with the challenges Western allies face in securing military financial aid for Ukraine. It also addresses the complexities of freezing and potentially confiscating Russian assets alongside Russia’s response. Given this uncertainty, alternative options, such as the EU and G7 funding plans, are explored. The chapter also considers the issue of ‘Trump-proofing’ Ukraine’s military aid within the context of NATO proposals. It concludes by contrasting NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s proposals with US objections. It discusses strategies for using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s immediate benefit while managing legal risks and preserving some assets for future settlement negotiations.

7. Chapter 6. Escalation and the Rising Threat of Transatlantic Disunity

   Viktor Jakupec

   Abstract

   The unity among NATO member states regarding support for Ukraine is increasingly becoming uncertain. It is argued that several factors contribute to this phenomenon, notably NATO’s progressive shift from a purely defensive alliance to one with offensive capabilities. NATO’s involvement in the Russo-Ukrainian war, specifically its military support for Ukraine, has intensified the conflict, resulting in varying levels of disunity among member countries. This disunity is evident in the range of responses from member states, which span from advocating for de-escalation to endorsing full military escalation. Subsequently, this chapter examines the Ukrainian and Russian escalatory actions by considering NATO’s Article 5 and Russia’s nuclear deployment doctrine. Correspondingly, a critical detailed discussion linking escalation and disunity, focussing on the institutional level by comparing differences between Macron’s escalation policy, Stoltenberg’s new vision for NATO, which aims to achieve peace through escalation, Zelenskyy’s Path to Peace initiative, and Orbán’s opt-out policies, is provided. The chapter concludes by discussing the systemic disunity within NATO and the global disunity or geopolitical dichotomy within the Western Alliance.

8. Chapter 7. Outnumbered and Outgunned: Ukraine’s War of Attrition

   Viktor Jakupec

   Abstract

   This chapter addresses the problems Ukraine faces on the battlefield and in its economy due to a shortage of military personnel and economy-based human resources required for its war against Russia. Despite attempts to strengthen its armed forces through various recruitment measures, both within and outside the country, the Ukrainian government has been unable to redress the shortage of military human resources. Against this background, this chapter analyses the situation Ukraine finds itself in by focusing on the false narrative juxtaposing military hardware and manpower as a determinant for military success. By identifying the importance of manpower as the predominant factor for battlefield success, the chapter focuses on the gradual downward trend in Ukrainian recruitment and the response to failed recruitment strategies domestically and abroad. Further to recruitment, the chapter discusses issues concerning mobilisation by addressing balancing military imperatives and national economic needs. In conclusion, the discussion addresses the consequences of Ukraine’s recruitment and mobilisation problems as Russian forces progress on different fronts.

9. Chapter 8. Russo-Ukraine War and the Rise of Populism

   Viktor Jakupec

   Abstract

   This chapter explores the shifting political dynamics in Europe after the 2024 European Union (EU) parliamentary elections and their implications for Ukraine. The polls saw a notable increase in right- and left-wing populist parties at the expense of traditional centrist ones, particularly in major countries like Italy, Germany, and France. This political shift suggests potential changes in the EU’s unified stance on military and financial support for Ukraine. Although NATO remains dedicated to bolstering support for Ukraine, the divergence between NATO and the EU’s policies reveals the complexities and uncertainties surrounding Western aid. This backdrop sets the stage for examining how the success of populist parties mirrors broader public dissatisfaction and affects EU unity and foreign policy. The chapter argues that the rise of these parties and shifting attitudes towards NATO and the Russo-Ukrainian war signal a possible realignment in international relations, especially if populist trends persist in national elections across Europe. It also analyses NATO’s evolving nuclear strategy in response to these political shifts and considers its implications for transatlantic relations and Ukraine’s future. Finally, the chapter addresses the integration of EU and NATO politics concerning the Russo-Ukrainian War.

10. Chapter 9. Ukraine at Geopolitical Crossroads: Survival, War, and Diplomacy

    Viktor Jakupec

    Abstract

    This chapter draws on the preceding chapters and analyses the complex political, military, financial, and economic factors shaping the current Ukraine crisis through the lens of future developments. It addresses several key issues: the rise of European nationalist populism, challenges to sovereignty and peace negotiations, and Ukraine’s potential shift towards a vassal state. The analysis highlights the implications of the NATO Summit 2024 and Ukraine’s membership, emphasising how European disunity further complicates the geopolitical situation and undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty. Financially, the chapter notes Ukraine’s precarious position, heavily dependent on loans and bonds amidst worsening economic conditions, including debt restructuring and reliance on the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and other financial institutions. It also discusses Ukraine’s faltering NATO membership ambitions and the impact of reduced international aid, which could push the country towards becoming a vassal state. Finally, the chapter evaluates Ukraine’s sovereignty amid ongoing conflict and failed diplomatic efforts to secure a peace agreement.

11. Backmatter