4. Threat Perception and Taiwan’s 2020 Presidential Election

Previous literature has shown that the perception of threat is an important determinant of individuals’ behaviors and attitudes. The more threatened people feel, the less likely they are to be cooperative in their policy stand, and the more likely they are to choose a strong leadership in response to the perceived threat. This study assesses how threat perception has affected Taiwan citizens’ policy position on the 1992 Consensus and their electoral decisions. Employing panel data collected before and after Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election, the empirical findings show that voters who possessed a higher level of threat perception were less likely to support the 1992 Consensus. Because the Consensus was the most important issue that separated incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen from the other two candidates in the election, voters with a higher level of threat perception were also more likely to provide electoral support for Tsai due to her projected image as a defender of Taiwan’s sovereignty and democratic way of life. These findings have both important theoretical and policy implications.