Skip to main content
main-content
Top

Hint

Swipe to navigate through the chapters of this book

2021 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Uncertainty and Causality in Public Policy: The Cases of Heart Disease and Climate Change

Author: Vikram Dayal

Published in: Sustainable Development Insights from India

Publisher: Springer Singapore

share
SHARE

Abstract

Uncertainty is a key feature of the world; when we consider actions to take, we confront uncertainty, but also issues of causality. We begin with an analytical framework that builds on probability both to express uncertainty as well as causality. We then consider uncertainty and normative decision frameworks. We then see how causal inference informs us about heart disease and climate change. We end with a brief consideration of beliefs, communication and literacy.
Literature
go back to reference Awad, A., & Al-Nafisi, H. (2014). Public knowledge of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors in Kuwait: a cross-sectional study. BMC Public Health, 14, 1471–2458 Awad, A., & Al-Nafisi, H. (2014). Public knowledge of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors in Kuwait: a cross-sectional study. BMC Public Health, 14, 1471–2458
go back to reference Cook, J., Nuccitelli, D., Green, S. A., Richardson, M., Winkler, B., Painting, R., Way, R., Jacobs, P., & Skuce, A. (2013). Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature. Environmental Reseach Letter, 8, 024024 (pp. 7). Cook, J., Nuccitelli, D., Green, S. A., Richardson, M., Winkler, B., Painting, R., Way, R., Jacobs, P., & Skuce, A. (2013). Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature. Environmental Reseach Letter, 8, 024024 (pp. 7).
go back to reference Dasgupta, P. (2001). Human well-being and the natural environment. New Delhi: Oxford University Press. CrossRef Dasgupta, P. (2001). Human well-being and the natural environment. New Delhi: Oxford University Press. CrossRef
go back to reference Dasgupta, P. (2008). Discounting climate change. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 37(2/3), 141–169. CrossRef Dasgupta, P. (2008). Discounting climate change. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 37(2/3), 141–169. CrossRef
go back to reference Freeman, A. M., Morris, P. B., Barnard, N., Esselstyn, C. B., Ros, E., Agatston, A., et al. (2017). Trending cardiovascular nutrition controversies. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 69(9), 1172–1187. CrossRef Freeman, A. M., Morris, P. B., Barnard, N., Esselstyn, C. B., Ros, E., Agatston, A., et al. (2017). Trending cardiovascular nutrition controversies. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 69(9), 1172–1187. CrossRef
go back to reference Fuhrman, J. (2018). The end of heart disease (Kindle ed.). HarperCollins. Fuhrman, J. (2018). The end of heart disease (Kindle ed.). HarperCollins.
go back to reference Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Reckoning with risk: Learning to live with uncertainty. New Delhi: Penguin Books Ltd. Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Reckoning with risk: Learning to live with uncertainty. New Delhi: Penguin Books Ltd.
go back to reference HannArt, A., Pearl, J., Otto, F. E. L., Naveau, P., & GHil, M. (2016). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(1), 99–110D. HannArt, A., Pearl, J., Otto, F. E. L., Naveau, P., & GHil, M. (2016). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(1), 99–110D.
go back to reference Hyman, M. (2016). Eat fat get thin: Why the fat we eat is the key to sustained weight loss and vibrant health. Yellow Kite. Hyman, M. (2016). Eat fat get thin: Why the fat we eat is the key to sustained weight loss and vibrant health. Yellow Kite.
go back to reference IPCC. (2018). Summary for Policymakers. In V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, & T. Waterfield (Eds.), Global warming of 1.5 degrees C. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 32 pp. Retrieved on July 28, 2020 from https://​www.​ipcc.​ch/​site/​assets/​uploads/​sites/​2/​2019/​05 IPCC. (2018). Summary for Policymakers. In V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, & T. Waterfield (Eds.), Global warming of 1.5 degrees C. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 32 pp. Retrieved on July 28, 2020 from https://​www.​ipcc.​ch/​site/​assets/​uploads/​sites/​2/​2019/​05
go back to reference Koskinas, K. C., Siontis, G. C. M., Piccolo, R., Mavridis, D., Raber, L., Mach, F., et al. (2018). Effect of statins and non-statin LDL-lowering medications on cardiovascular outcomes in secondary prevention: A meta-analysis of randomized trials. European Heart Journal, 39, 1172–1180. CrossRef Koskinas, K. C., Siontis, G. C. M., Piccolo, R., Mavridis, D., Raber, L., Mach, F., et al. (2018). Effect of statins and non-statin LDL-lowering medications on cardiovascular outcomes in secondary prevention: A meta-analysis of randomized trials. European Heart Journal, 39, 1172–1180. CrossRef
go back to reference Montamat, G., & Stock, J. H. (2020). Quasi-experimental estimates of the transient climate response using observational data. Climatic Change, 160, 361–371. Montamat, G., & Stock, J. H. (2020). Quasi-experimental estimates of the transient climate response using observational data. Climatic Change, 160, 361–371.
go back to reference O’Halloran, L., & Slattery, M. (2017). Assessing the knowledge of cardiovascular disease among young people in south Dublin. Cardiol Cardiovascmed, 1(4), 187–194. O’Halloran, L., & Slattery, M. (2017). Assessing the knowledge of cardiovascular disease among young people in south Dublin. Cardiol Cardiovascmed, 1(4), 187–194.
go back to reference Ornish, D., Scherwitz, L. W., Billings, J. H., Gould, K. L., Merritt, T. A., Sparler, S., et al. (1998). Intensive lifestyle changes for reversal of coronary heart disease. JAMA, 280(23), 2001–2007. CrossRef Ornish, D., Scherwitz, L. W., Billings, J. H., Gould, K. L., Merritt, T. A., Sparler, S., et al. (1998). Intensive lifestyle changes for reversal of coronary heart disease. JAMA, 280(23), 2001–2007. CrossRef
go back to reference Pearl, J. (2001). Baysianism and causality, or, why i am only a half-Bayesian. In: D. Corfield & J. Williamson (Eds.) Foundations of Bayesianism, Kluwer applied logic series (Vol. 24, pp. 19–36). Kluwer Academic Publishers. Pearl, J. (2001). Baysianism and causality, or, why i am only a half-Bayesian. In: D. Corfield & J. Williamson (Eds.) Foundations of Bayesianism, Kluwer applied logic series (Vol. 24, pp. 19–36). Kluwer Academic Publishers.
go back to reference Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, reasoning, and inference. New York: Cambridge University Press. CrossRef Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, reasoning, and inference. New York: Cambridge University Press. CrossRef
go back to reference Peterson, M. (2009). An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. CrossRef Peterson, M. (2009). An introduction to decision theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. CrossRef
go back to reference Ramsey, F. P. (1926). Truth and probability. In R. B. Braithwaite (Ed.), Ramsey, 1931, the foundations of mathematics and other logical essays (Chap. VII, pp. 156–198). Kegan, Paul, Trench, Trubner and Co., London. Ramsey, F. P. (1926). Truth and probability. In R. B. Braithwaite (Ed.), Ramsey, 1931, the foundations of mathematics and other logical essays (Chap. VII, pp. 156–198). Kegan, Paul, Trench, Trubner and Co., London.
go back to reference Ray, K. K., Seshasai, S. R., Erqou, S., Sever, P., Joukema, J. W., Ford, I., et al. (2010). Statins and all-cause mortality in high- risk primary prevention: A meta-analysis of 11 randomized controlled trials involving 65,229 participants. Archives on Internal Medicine, 170(12), 1024–31. CrossRef Ray, K. K., Seshasai, S. R., Erqou, S., Sever, P., Joukema, J. W., Ford, I., et al. (2010). Statins and all-cause mortality in high- risk primary prevention: A meta-analysis of 11 randomized controlled trials involving 65,229 participants. Archives on Internal Medicine, 170(12), 1024–31. CrossRef
go back to reference Rubin, D. B. (2008). For objective causal inference, design trumps analysis. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 2(3), 808–840. CrossRef Rubin, D. B. (2008). For objective causal inference, design trumps analysis. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 2(3), 808–840. CrossRef
go back to reference Rydgren, J. (2011). Beliefs. In P. Bearman, P. Hedstrom (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of analytical sociology (pp. 72–93). Oxford University Press, Oxford. Rydgren, J. (2011). Beliefs. In P. Bearman, P. Hedstrom (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of analytical sociology (pp. 72–93). Oxford University Press, Oxford.
go back to reference Sloman, S. (2009). Causal models: How people think about the world and its alternatives. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Sloman, S. (2009). Causal models: How people think about the world and its alternatives. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
go back to reference Sox, H. C., Higgins, M. C., Owens, D. K. (2013). Medical decision making (p. 21). Wiley, Chichester. Sox, H. C., Higgins, M. C., Owens, D. K. (2013). Medical decision making (p. 21). Wiley, Chichester.
go back to reference Strotz, R. H., & Wold, H. O. A. (1960). Recursive versus nonrecursive systems: An attempt at synthesis. Econometrica, 28(2), 417–427. Strotz, R. H., & Wold, H. O. A. (1960). Recursive versus nonrecursive systems: An attempt at synthesis. Econometrica, 28(2), 417–427.
go back to reference Swanson, S. A. (2015). Communicating causality. European Journal of Epidemiology, 30, 1073–1075. CrossRef Swanson, S. A. (2015). Communicating causality. European Journal of Epidemiology, 30, 1073–1075. CrossRef
go back to reference Weitzman, M. L. (2011). Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 5(2), 275–292. CrossRef Weitzman, M. L. (2011). Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 5(2), 275–292. CrossRef
go back to reference Woodward, J. (2004). Making things happen: A theory of causal explanation. Oxford: Oxford University Press. CrossRef Woodward, J. (2004). Making things happen: A theory of causal explanation. Oxford: Oxford University Press. CrossRef
Metadata
Title
Uncertainty and Causality in Public Policy: The Cases of Heart Disease and Climate Change
Author
Vikram Dayal
Copyright Year
2021
Publisher
Springer Singapore
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-4830-1_20

Premium Partner