2015 | OriginalPaper | Chapter
Uncertainty Quantification for Re-entry Survivability Prediction
Published in:
Space Safety is No Accident
Abstract
This paper reports on the application of uncertainty quantification methods to the prediction of the survivability of satellites re-entering the Earth atmosphere. Aleatory as well as epistemic parameters were varied. Parametric variation, Monte-Carlo, and Polynomial chaos expansion methods were applied. The re-entry code used was SCARAB. For the uncertainty quantification analysis this code was coupled with the DAKOTA software. Two satellites were modelled: a 2U CubeSat, representing the class of very light spececraft to study the demise characteristics, and a generic test satellite representing the class of medium-sized spacecraft, to study the ground impact uncertainty.
