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2021 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Uncertainty Quantification in Risk Modeling: The Case of Customs Supply Chain

Authors : Lamia Hammadi, Eduardo Souza de Cursi, Vlad Stefan Barbu

Published in: Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

In this paper, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is used in risk modeling to de-scribe the time series describing the risks in customs supply chain. We start by introducing the Hilbertian approach related to representation of Random Varia-bles and addressing these approximations and their applications in UQ. Then an extension where these models are applied to the time series in order to handle the seasonal components of risks in customs supply chain. The models are fitted to time series describing the seized quantities of the smuggling of drugs on two sites using Moment Matching Method. the results furnish a good description of important properties of the data, namely, the polynomial expansion and Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF).

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Metadata
Title
Uncertainty Quantification in Risk Modeling: The Case of Customs Supply Chain
Authors
Lamia Hammadi
Eduardo Souza de Cursi
Vlad Stefan Barbu
Copyright Year
2021
Book
Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling

Print ISBN: 978-3-030-53668-8

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-53669-5

Copyright Year: 2021

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53669-5_19