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Water Resources Management

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01-08-2014

Urban Household Water Demand in Beijing by 2020: An Agent-Based Model

Authors: Xiao-Chen Yuan, Yi-Ming Wei, Su-Yan Pan, Ju-Liang Jin

Published in: Water Resources Management | Issue 10/2014

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Abstract

Beijing is faced with severe water scarcity due to rapid socio-economic development and population expansion, and a guideline for water regulation has been released to control the volume of national water use. To cope with water shortage and meet regulation goal, it has great significance to study the variations of water demand. In this paper, an agent-based model named HWDP is developed for the prediction of urban household water demand in Beijing. The model involves stochastic behaviors and feedbacks caused by two agent roles which are government agent and household agent. The government agent adopts economic and propagandist means to make household agent optimize its water consumption. Additionally, the consumption is also affected by the basic water demand deduced from extended linear expenditure system. The results indicate that the total water demand of urban households in Beijing will increase to 317.5 million cubic meters by 2020, while the water price keeps growing at a low level. However, it would drop to 294.9 million cubic meters with high growth of water price and low increment in per capita disposable income. Finally, some policy recommendations on water regulation are made.

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Title: Urban Household Water Demand in Beijing by 2020: An Agent-Based Model
Authors: Xiao-Chen Yuan
Yi-Ming Wei
Su-Yan Pan
Ju-Liang Jin
Publication date: 01-08-2014
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Published in: Water Resources Management / Issue 10/2014
Print ISSN: 0920-4741
Electronic ISSN: 1573-1650
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0649-4

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