Urbanization and Industrial Transformation for Improved Water Management

Urban ecosystems coupling social and biophysical processes require interdisciplinary effort. An integrated framework is explored by linking a hydrological model (SWAT- Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and an economic model (CGE- Computable General Equilibrium) for allocating the water resource to maximize the water use efficiency in a river basin in China. A case study of the Heihe River Basin is presented to illustrate how the framework can be used to analyze the water supply and demand in the process of urbanization. The industrial transformation will happen along with the urbanization, both of which will lead to rapid increase of water consumption. In addition, the rate of urbanization mainly characterized by the economic development, population growth, and water resource limitations. Therefore, the study analyzed the water demand of each county using the CGE model, with the population growth, capital accumulation, and technical progress used as exogenous variables. Simultaneously, the land use/cover change with urbanization will back to influence water supply through the hydrological process. The results indicate that the total water consumption in the middle reach of the Heihe River Basin will increase from 21.74 × 10⁸ m³ in 2010 to 24.35 × 10⁸ m³ in 2050. In addition, the results indicate that the runoff in the lower reach of urban will increase by 9.14%. The groundwater infiltration will decrease in 2050, indicating that more water can be withdrawn from Heihe River to meet the increasing water demand due to urbanization in the middle reach on condition that the ecological water demand in the lower reach remains unchanged.