17. Value for Money. Cost–Benefit Analysis

This chapter provides the results of a limited cost–benefit analysis (CBA) on selected implementation scenarios. A main challenge for CBA of ITS-based safety measures is the limited quantifiable estimates of their effects on road fatalities and injuries. As a proxy to estimating such effects, an error-based approach is applied. That is, particular ITS-based measures are assumed to help drivers avoid errors that are known to be related to particular types of accidents; the target accidents of the technologies. Such an approach to measuring benefits inevitably requires strong assumptions for quantifying the fatality/injury effects. In addition, there is also lack of empirical knowledge on the indirect effects of ITS-based safety measures; the possible impact on time use and emissions. Since such possible indirect impacts are not included in this CBA, the analysis can be considered as only partial. Even if the quantified safety effects are on the optimistic side, the resulting benefit–cost ratios are still fairly low, because of the technology costs. However, future costs are assumed to decrease, and some of the technologies might be standard equipment in more and more car models.