Value Proposition of Copper Mining Projects: Analysis of Its Fulfillment, Deviations, and Causes in the 2015–2022 Period

The copper industry, driven by the energy transition scenario, is projected to grow from 1.2 Mt in 2020 to 3.5 Mt in 2030 and 5.4 Mt in 2040. This growth requires increased production by expanding existing operations or new mining projects. Given these market demands, this study focuses on greenfield projects and their value propositions—specifically, investment amounts, timelines, and project scope. The methodological framework employed assesses the fulfillment of the value proposition in terms of investment amount, production start dates, and scope for the global portfolio of copper mining projects from 2015 to 2022. The approach consists of five steps: data collection, portfolio characterization, project selection, descriptive statistical analysis, and clustering using the K-means algorithm. By clustering, it is possible to evaluate the level of similarity between projects and identify key factors influencing the fulfillment of their value propositions. This research enhances the understanding of key factors affecting the value proposition of mining projects, emphasizing the critical role of socio-environmental variables. These factors require further exploration through the compilation of regional best practices. Finally, the study underscores the importance of robust strategic analysis during the pre-investment stages, particularly in business case evaluations, where the identified factors can guide discussions and improve decision-making processes. It will also highlight critical factors affecting the fulfillment of their value propositions.