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Published in:
2016 | OriginalPaper | Chapter
Vent opening probability maps
Author : Andrea Bevilacqua
Published in: Doubly Stochastic Models for Volcanic Hazard Assessment at Campi Flegrei Caldera
Publisher: Scuola Normale Superiore
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Campi Flegrei is an active volcanic area situated in the Campanian Plain (Italy) and dominated by a resurgent caldera. The great majority of past eruptions have been explosive, variable in magnitude, intensity and in their vent locations. In this chapter we present a probabilistic analysis using a variety of volcanological datasets to map the background spatial probability of vent opening conditional on the occurrence of an event in the foreseeable future. The analysis focuses on the reconstruction of the location of past eruptive vents in the last 15 ka, including the distribution of faults and surface fractures as being representative of areas of crustal weakness (see Figure 2.1). One of the key objectives is to incorporate some of the main sources of epistemic uncertainty about the volcanic system through a structured expert elicitation, thereby quantifying uncertainties for certain important model parameters and allowing outcomes from different expert weighting models to be evaluated.