Western Balkans and the Future of Europe
Between an Enlargement and a Commitment Fatigue
- 2025
- Book
- Editors
- Aleksandar Stojkov
- Thierry Warin
- Book Series
- The Future of Europe
- Publisher
- Springer Nature Switzerland
About this book
One of the main questions addressed in this book is whether the EU enlargement fatigue has resulted in broken promises leading to a “commitment fatigue” among the EU candidate states from Western Balkans. Until recently, political and business leaders from Western Balkans, almost without exception, have repeatedly highlighted their aspirations for joining the Union. The discussions about future of Europe would be incomplete, without investigating the relations between EU and Western Balkans. This book addresses academic researchers, policy makers, and higher education students.
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Table of Contents
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Frontmatter
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United Europe: Boundaries and Challenges
Aleksandar Stojkov, Thierry WarinThis chapter offers an in-depth exploration of the European integration process, focusing on the geographical and political dimensions that have shaped the European Union (EU) since its inception. It begins with an overview of the EU's historical evolution, from the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community to the present day, highlighting key milestones such as the Treaty of Maastricht and the challenges posed by events like Brexit. The chapter delves into the economic implications of European integration, examining how the EU's single market, common currency, and financial integration have driven growth and convergence among member states. It also explores the political dynamics at play, including the EU's enlargement strategy and the challenges of managing a diverse and expanding union. The chapter provides a detailed analysis of the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership countries, discussing their progress towards EU membership and the obstacles they face. It concludes by assessing the future prospects of European integration, considering the strategic importance of enlargement and the need for institutional reforms to ensure the EU's continued success.AI Generated
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AbstractThis work investigates the rapidly changing dynamics of European integration, highlighting some difficulties and opportunities linked to the process of EU enlargement. It serves to provide the historical background that has led to the development of the EU, focusing on major events such as the 2004–2007 Eastern enlargement, and explores the interplay among geography, politics, and economics in shaping the boundaries of the EU. It examines the twin challenges of enlargement fatigue in EU member states and commitment fatigue in candidate countries, specifically in the Western Balkans, while assessing critically economic implications of income convergence and growth dynamics, along with governance gaps in the post-communist economies. It also assesses the transformative power of European integration to deliver stability, prosperity, and cohesion to candidate countries while emphasizing that there are persistent and emerging challenges, such as democratic backsliding and geopolitical tensions. Guided by innovative methodological approaches, the paper concludes with policy recommendations for navigating future enlargement while safeguarding and reinforcing the foundational principles of solidarity and democracy that underpin the EU. -
The European Integration and Western Balkans: What Now?
Ivica BocevskiThe chapter scrutinizes the halted integration of the Western Balkans Six (WB6) into the European Union, a process that has deviated from the EU's previously efficient enlargement cycles. It argues that despite the WB6's preparedness, the lack of political will within the EU has stalled the accession process. The text explores the intricate relationship between European integration and democratization, asserting that while the EU has significantly influenced democratization in its neighborhood, the link is not straightforward. It delves into the EU's preventive role in maintaining democratic regimes within member states and the attractiveness of full membership, which motivates countries to undertake massive reforms. The chapter also examines the unique case of the former Yugoslav countries, highlighting the complexities of their integration process and the limits of democratic conditionality. It concludes by questioning the EU's future enlargement prospects and the potential consequences for democratic stabilization in the region, offering a thought-provoking analysis of the EU's role in global democratization.AI Generated
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AbstractIs there a real perspective for the full integration of the Western Balkans Six in the European Union, or is the accession process already dead? “Something is rotten in the state of the European integration of the Western Balkans” is not just a poetic way to describe the state of affairs regarding full accession, but a reality. The European Union, and previously the European Economic Community, was quite efficient in previous cycles of European enlargement. Virtually all the accession processes were completed within the mandate of a single European Commission once the negotiation processes had been started with the respective countries. Furthermore, in the pre-accession period, the European Union invested heavily in the removal of the “non-acquis political criteria”, which were usually linked to the democratic insufficiencies of the candidate countries. The only notable exceptions to the “rule of a single European Commission” are the Turkish enlargement and the Western Balkans Six (WB6) accession process. Given the fact that most of the WB6 countries already have the necessary legal framework in place for cooperation with the EU and that the single market is by far the largest trading partner of the region, the only logical conclusion is that there is no political will for further enlargement of the European Union, and so the accession process has ground to a halt. -
The European Integration of the Western Balkans and Its Impact on the EU as a Geopolitical Entity
Aleksandar SpasovThe chapter explores the European Union's commitment to the Western Balkans, tracing the evolution of the region's integration process since the Thessaloniki Summit in 2003. It highlights the geopolitical shifts that have occurred over the past two decades, including the rise of instability, right-wing populism, and euroscepticism, which have challenged the EU's ambitions to become a geopolitical entity. The text delves into the stagnation of the accession process for the Western Balkan countries, examining the political, economic, and social challenges that have hindered progress. It discusses the strategic importance of the region as a crossroads of continents and geopolitical rivalries, and the potential negative spillover effects of the stalemate on the EU's geopolitical aspirations. The chapter also analyzes the geopolitical consequences of the current situation, including the vulnerability of the Western Balkans to malign foreign influence, the growing interest of China in the region, and the need for the EU to strengthen its role in European security. It concludes by emphasizing the importance of resolving the stalemate to secure the future of the region and the EU's geopolitical ambitions.AI Generated
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AbstractIn an age of intensified geopolitical competition in the world, the European Union strives to constitute itself as a geopolitical entity having a role in international relations that is beyond a common market and customs union. EU’s strategy to achieve “strategic autonomy” and political declarations on “European sovereignty” as a strategic ambition are steps in that direction. Still, the EU’s development unlike the development of nation-states is connected to a process called “EU enlargement”. The EU enlargement had undergone several phases in the last decades and now is directed towards the eastern part of the continent and towards the remaining part of the southeastern part of the continent, known as the Western Balkans. The article analyses the European integration of the Western Balkan countries through geopolitical perspective and identifies the geopolitical consequences both for the EU and the region if the current stalemate in the process continues. -
Stagnation in Western Balkans’ Security Regionalization: The Problem of Competing Regional Cultures of Anarchy
Ana Bojinović Fenko, Marko KovačevićThe chapter investigates the stagnation of security regionalization in the Western Balkans, focusing on the period following the post-Yugoslav wars of the 1990s. It explores how the region's security landscape has been shaped by a mix of regional processes and actors, with a significant influence from external powers. The analysis reveals a complex interplay of regional cultures of anarchy, ranging from Hobbesian enemy-based relations to Lockean rival-based and Kantian friend-based interactions. The chapter argues that the relative stagnation in security regionalization is due to the coexistence of these diverse cultures of anarchy, which hinder the development of a cohesive regional security community. It provides a systematic overview of regional security-related initiatives from 2013 to 2023, identifying elements of growing regional cohesion and the persistence of cultures of anarchy. The chapter also discusses the role of external actors, such as the EU, Russia, China, and Turkey, in shaping the region's security dynamics. It concludes by highlighting the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the regionalization process in the Western Balkans, focusing on the content and quality of security regionalism. The chapter offers a unique perspective on the region's security challenges and opportunities, making it an essential read for anyone interested in the Western Balkans' security landscape and the broader implications for international relations and security studies.AI Generated
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AbstractThe problem in Western Balkans’ unstable and growingly challenged security provision is identified by scholars and practitioners in too many actors with diverse (regional) interests and lack of local states’ ownership in the regional security regime. This chapter’s aim is to offer a more comprehensive reading of the regionalization process—defining the Western Balkans as a regional complex advancing towards regional society. Focusing on the content of security regionalism, we answer “How can we explain the stagnation of security regionalisation in the Western Balkans?” Based on the conceptual linkage between levels of regionness and culture of anarchy, we make an empirical investigation of all 40 regional security institutions in operation mapped by MIND research project. The results show that that the Western Balkan countries are currently practicing divergent cultures of anarchy, moving from Hobbesian to Lockean culture of regional anarchy and at the same time being strongly incentivized to accelerate regional dynamics towards Kantian culture. The endogenous initiatives by Western Balkan states expose countries’ interest to functionally cooperate on the basis of interdependence needs (energy, environmental security, disaster prevention, and crisis management) (strengthening Lockean culture of anarchy) but lack willingness in cooperation in security areas that demand relaxed inward orientation of states and would lead to trust and collective identity-building (elements of Kantian culture of anarchy). -
The Future Relations Between the European Union and Albania
Erjon LuçiAlbania's aspirations to join the European Union began in the early 1990s, marking a significant shift from its communist past to a market economy. The journey has been marked by a series of milestones, including the signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement in 2006 and the attainment of candidate status in 2014. Despite these advancements, Albania faces numerous challenges, including the need for further judicial and anti-corruption reforms, as well as the political dynamics within the EU that can influence the pace of accession. The chapter delves into the economic transformations Albania has undergone, from initial struggles with inflation and unemployment to periods of robust growth and resilience during global crises. The country's strategic location and strong public support for EU membership present unique opportunities for regional cooperation and economic integration. However, Albania must address issues such as export diversification, infrastructure development, and environmental sustainability to fully capitalize on these advantages. The chapter also examines the role of EU financial assistance and trade agreements in supporting Albania's reforms and economic growth. It highlights the importance of aligning with EU standards in various sectors, including energy, public administration, and justice, to ensure a successful accession process. The chapter concludes by emphasizing the transformative potential of EU membership for Albania, offering a pathway to enhanced stability, prosperity, and integration into the European community.AI Generated
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AbstractAlbania’s path towards European Union (EU) membership has been a lengthy and arduous journey. Despite this, public support for joining EU remains strong. The EU integration process provides Albania with a unique opportunity for boosting economic growth and accelerating income convergence, as it pushes the country to undertake a series of challenging reforms. These reforms, although demanding, are essential for fostering long-term development, ultimately helping to bridge the gap between Albania and more developed EU nations. -
The Future Relations Between the European Union and Kosovo
Gazmend QorrajThe chapter explores the intricate relationship between the European Union and Kosovo, set against the backdrop of the Western Balkans' broader integration efforts. It begins by tracing the regional integration process, initiated by the Stability Pact and reinforced through various EU instruments such as Free Trade Agreements and the Common Regional Market. The analysis delves into the historic significance of Albania and North Macedonia's accession negotiations with the EU, despite the bloc's internal challenges and external pressures. The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the EU's enlargement process is scrutinized, alongside the EU's absorption capacity and the Western Balkans' readiness for integration. The Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) and the Common Regional Market (CRM) are examined as pivotal frameworks for Kosovo's economic and political alignment with the EU. The chapter also addresses the technical, political, and geopolitical factors shaping Kosovo's future relations with the EU, including the complex negotiations with Serbia and the EU's institutional setting. The interplay between political tensions, regional cooperation, and external influences is explored, offering insights into the potential benefits and obstacles on Kosovo's path towards European integration. The conclusion underscores the need for institutional reforms and regional cooperation to overcome the challenges posed by political disputes and geopolitical shifts, highlighting the critical role of the EU in fostering stability and prosperity in the Western Balkans.AI Generated
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AbstractThis paper examines the European Union’s (EU) strategy towards the Western Balkan countries, with a particular focus on Kosovo’s relationship with the EU. The analysis begins with the inception of the regional integration process through the Stability Pact, followed by various EU instruments such as Free Trade Agreements, CEFTA 2006, the Regional Economic Area, and the Common Regional Market. Highlighting the significance of Albania and North Macedonia commencing EU accession negotiations in 2022, the paper addresses the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the EU enlargement process. It also evaluates the EU’s absorption capacity and the influence of regional initiatives like the Common Regional Market and the Stabilization and Association Agreement on Kosovo’s EU integration. The concluding sections explore future challenges in Kosovo-EU relations, emphasizing the need for reforms and regional cooperation to overcome political and economic hurdles. -
Bosnia and Herzegovina on the Way to the European Union: Past, Present, and Future
Snježana BrkićThe chapter provides a detailed examination of Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BiH) journey towards European Union (EU) membership, focusing on the period from 1995 to 2024. It begins by highlighting the strategic importance of EU membership for BiH, a goal that has been consistently prioritized in official documents since the early post-war period. The chapter then delves into the economic motives driving BiH's EU aspirations, emphasizing the significant trade and investment ties between the two entities. The EU is BiH's most important trading partner and investor, with two-thirds of BiH's trade conducted with the EU and over 5 billion euros invested by EU members. The chapter also explores the institutional aspects of BiH's EU accession process, from the signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) in 2008 to the eventual granting of candidate status in 2022. It discusses the challenges and delays BiH has faced, as well as the political and economic factors that have influenced its progress. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for BiH, including the need for comprehensive political, economic, and institutional reforms. It also touches on the potential costs and benefits of EU membership, as well as the geopolitical factors that may shape BiH's European future. The chapter is a must-read for anyone seeking a deep understanding of BiH's complex and ongoing journey towards EU integration.AI Generated
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AbstractThis chapter explores the past, present, and future of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in the context of its European path. For the last 20 years, BiH has been trying to reform its economic and political system with a view of becoming a member of the European Union (EU) one day. The country’s long journey towards the EU began within the so-called EU regional approach to the countries of Southeast Europe (SEE), continued through the Stabilization and Association Process (SAP) and, after acquiring candidate status, finally reached the opening of negotiations with the EU in March 2024. Thus, BiH became the last SEE country that opened negotiations with the EU—after 25 years from the beginning of the process together with others in the region. However, the latest improvements in BiH’s relations with the largest economic integration of the modern world are more caused by the current geopolitical situation in Europe than by the country’s actual achievements in political and economic reforms. In the future, this should not be the case—the ultimate goal of BiH should not be only a formal membership in the EU but reaching a level of economic and institutional development that enables full use of advantages the EU membership can bring. The challenges, both economic and non-economic, for BiH but the EU as well, are numerous. -
The Path of North Macedonia to the European Union Is the Only Way Forward
Fatmir BesimiThe chapter presents a compelling argument for North Macedonia's integration into the European Union, emphasizing the economic, social, and geostrategic advantages that come with membership. It highlights the transformative power of the EU, demonstrating how access to a market of over half a billion consumers, increased foreign direct investments, and enhanced trade opportunities can drive economic growth and development. The text delves into the historical context of European integration, from the European Coal and Steel Community to the creation of the single currency, illustrating how shared values and economic interests have united diverse nations. It also explores the non-economic benefits, such as strengthened democracy, improved governance, and enhanced security, which are crucial for a small economy like North Macedonia. The chapter provides a detailed comparison of the economic convergence between new EU member states and Western Balkan countries, underscoring the faster progress made by those within the Union. It discusses the role of EU funds, both pre-accession and cohesion funds, in supporting economic and social development, and the significant financial benefits that come with full membership. The geopolitical context, particularly the impact of the war in Ukraine, is analyzed to underscore the urgency and opportunity for EU enlargement. The chapter concludes by emphasizing the need for structural reforms, regional connectivity, and a holistic approach to achieving the common goal of EU integration, painting a vivid picture of the benefits and challenges that lie ahead.AI Generated
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AbstractThis paper rigorously examines the comprehensive benefits of European integration, focusing on its profound impact on economic and social spheres. The discussion begins by emphasizing the need to revisit the integration discourse through economic, social, and geostrategic perspectives. It underscores the European Union’s foundational role as a political peace project underpinned by economic union, illustrating the significant economic benefits such as enhanced GDP per capita, trade integration, economies of scale, and financial liberalization. Furthermore, the paper juxtaposes EU pre-accession assistance with cohesion funds, highlighting the substantial financial advantages conferred by full membership. The urgency of EU enlargement is discussed, particularly in the context of the geopolitical challenges precipitated by the conflict in Ukraine. The analysis concludes with a call for structural reforms in the Western Balkans to expedite convergence with the EU, emphasizing the importance of regional connectivity, economic resilience, and sustainable development. This integration is posited as a critical pathway to fostering a prosperous future within the European framework. -
Montenegro 2.0: The European Vision of Montenegro
Ivan Jovetić, Ivana Vojinović, Milica Vukotić, Sandra TinajMontenegro's path to European integration is fraught with historical complexities and contemporary challenges. The chapter begins by examining the country's tumultuous history, marked by continuous wars and conflicts, which have shaped its political and economic landscape. It highlights the importance of functional institutions, a free-market economy, and a robust education system as prerequisites for stability and prosperity. The text delves into the political instability that has plagued Montenegro, particularly since its independence in 2006, and the impact of external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Economic freedom and foreign direct investments are explored as crucial indicators of the country's progress, with a focus on the need for political stability and security to attract and sustain economic growth. The chapter also discusses the concept of institutional branding, emphasizing the potential of Montenegro's eco-friendly and micro-state visions to enhance its attractiveness as an investment destination. Technological advancements, particularly blockchain, are presented as tools for achieving greater transparency, fighting corruption, and fostering economic and social development. The environmental dimension of Montenegro's EU accession is thoroughly analyzed, with a focus on the costs and benefits of implementing EU environmental legislation. The chapter argues for a green transition that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and long-term economic benefits. It concludes with a vision for Montenegro 2.0, emphasizing the need for a well-educated, entrepreneurial, and ecologically conscious society. The text underscores the importance of mutual respect and strategic thinking in the future relations between Montenegro and the EU, highlighting the potential for Montenegro to become a competitive and sustainable economic powerhouse in the European market.AI Generated
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AbstractPolitical stability is inevitable for economic growth and development regardless of the EU accession. It must be followed by the economic freedom concept in order to achieve the full potential. In case of Montenegro, the concepts of micro-state, its hybrid version as well as green transition based on economic freedom are the key pillars. It also enables quite efficient and effective institutional branding if executed properly. Future perspectives of Montenegro-EU relations must include full membership till 2030 (based primarily on the geopolitical changes) the latest, stable state institutions, applied rule of law, full structural funds access, investments’ attractiveness, full foreign policy compliance, full environmental protection compliance, positioning itself as the regional economy hub (including down thresholds for any joint interval or decision among member states or divided jurisdiction), SME’s access to the market and funding sources, diversification of the economy, and company’s ability to cope with the single market pressure. In order to achieve the aforementioned, the following has to be achieved: (1) political stability, (2) economic freedom, (3) secure country, (4) environment friendly design, (5) efficient educational system, (6) effective rule of law, (7) entrepreneurial culture, and (8) Montenegro as the EU member state. Existence of functional and efficient institutions based on market economy principles, functional education system, and implemented EU negotiation process criteria based on the vision of micro and green Montenegro are the (pre)condition for making the respective viable at all. -
The Future of Serbia’s Relations with the European Union
Stevan GajićThe chapter explores the profound misconceptions that have plagued Serbia's understanding of the European Union, revealing how the EU project has been perceived as a geopolitical extension of the United States. It delves into the historical context of Yugoslavia's dissolution, highlighting the role of Western countries in destabilizing the region and the subsequent ethnic conflicts that ensued. The text examines the strategic missteps made by Serbian political elites and the impact of Western propaganda on shaping global perceptions of the Serbian people. It also analyzes the pivotal moments in Serbia's relationship with the EU, from the end of the Cold War to the present day, including the NATO aggression against Yugoslavia and the recognition of Kosovo's independence. The chapter concludes with a projection of future developments in political, security, and economic relations between Serbia and the EU, considering the tectonic geopolitical changes in Europe and the world. It offers a critical assessment of the EU's subservient role to the United States and the implications for Serbia's sovereignty and future integration prospects.AI Generated
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AbstractThe prolonged EU accession process faced by Serbia has been primarily hindered by a significant misunderstanding of the European Union’s nature by the Serbian political elite. Many leaders failed to grasp that the EU project has always been a geopolitical extension of the United States, aimed at maintaining dominance over Europe. This misperception has influenced the EU’s political stance towards Serbia, mirroring Washington’s approach. The breakup of Yugoslavia, influenced heavily by Western intervention, left Serbia, seen as a geopolitical obstacle due to its Orthodox Christian identity and historical ties to Slavic and Byzantine civilizations, in a complex political position. This paper explores the historical context, the dynamics of Serbia’s EU relations post-Yugoslavia, and the future of Serbia–EU interactions, considering the changing geopolitical landscape. The analysis spans from the end of the Cold War to the present, highlighting the impact of EU policies, the influence of US geopolitics, and Serbia’s evolving stance towards European integration. -
European Integration Prospects for Western Balkans
Thierry Warin, Aleksandar StojkovThe chapter examines the prospects of European integration for the Western Balkans, a region increasingly frustrated by the EU's perceived favoritism towards Ukraine. It delves into the historical context, political frustrations, and geopolitical dynamics shaping the Western Balkans' path to EU membership. The analysis highlights the EU's promises and setbacks, the impact of global events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the role of external actors such as Russia, China, and Turkey. It also explores the challenges posed by populism, the influence of NATO, and the strategic importance of the Western Balkans for the EU. The chapter argues that the region's integration is crucial for Europe's stability and prosperity, but it requires addressing internal and external obstacles. It concludes by emphasizing the need for a strategic vision and bold political decisions to navigate the complexities of EU enlargement and ensure a brighter future for the Western Balkans and Europe as a whole. The chapter also discusses the potential benefits and challenges of EU integration for the Western Balkans, including economic growth, democratic consolidation, and social inclusion. It highlights the importance of a clear roadmap, effective implementation, and sustained commitment to reforms. The analysis also touches on the demographic implications of EU integration, the need for a holistic approach to policy-making, and the potential for a 'win-win' scenario for both the EU and the Western Balkans. The chapter concludes by emphasizing the urgency of the Western Balkans' EU integration and the need for a strategic vision to navigate the geopolitical complexities and ensure a prosperous future for the region and Europe.AI Generated
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AbstractThe further integration of the EU stands at a crossroads, characterized by increasing geopolitical complexity and internal challenges. While Western Balkan countries suffer from slow accession processes, the accelerated candidacy of Ukraine after 2022 shows how political priorities vary. Frustration mounts as leaders such as Vučić of Serbia express their frustration over delays across issues, including the resolution of Serbia-Kosovo relations. Meanwhile, the EU’s target enlargement date of 2030, advanced by the European Council President Charles Michel, reflects new impetus. The Growth Plan, based on four pillars, points out economic integration, fundamental reforms, and financial aid, thus offering a strategic opportunity to the region. On the other hand, geopolitical fragmentation—epitomized by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia—makes things difficult. The integration of the Western Balkans is vital for regional stability, a decrease in emigration, and socioeconomic disparities. While EU membership offers mutual benefits, its realization requires bold reforms, enhanced governance, and adherence to democratic values. Ultimately, EU enlargement is a means and not an end—a journey to prosperity and unity.
- Title
- Western Balkans and the Future of Europe
- Editors
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Aleksandar Stojkov
Thierry Warin
- Copyright Year
- 2025
- Publisher
- Springer Nature Switzerland
- Electronic ISBN
- 978-3-031-86465-0
- Print ISBN
- 978-3-031-86464-3
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-86465-0
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