What Can Driving Patterns Reveal About the Suitability of PEVs in Sweden? Analysis and Policy Implications

Sweden has ambitious climate goals. For the transport sector the goals is a 70% reduction of emissions from domestic transport by 2030 relative to 2010 levels. Even if Sweden has not set any specific goals for PEVs, electrification of the transport sector is one of the major strategies to achieve the climate goals. In this chapter we analyze the suitability of PEVs with a special emphasis on BEVs, in Sweden. The main approach has been to study driving patterns and how these relate to the limited range of a BEV. Special emphasis has been set on two-car households since these are potential early adopters. Data on driving patterns is complemented with interviews of households that have trialed a BEV for at least 3 months. We find that the longer driving distances in Sweden might make it more challenging for BEVs to be adopted. On the plus side the economic conditions in Sweden with low electricity prices, higher fuel taxes and subsidies make the BEV economically viable from a TCO perspective. The combination of these factors might explain the relatively high shares of sales of PEVs in Sweden (5.3% sales share in 2017) and why these are dominated by PHEVs. The chapter also looks at the lessons learned from the failed introduction of flex-fuel vehicles and finds that is important to maintain the economic advantages of PEVs through, e.g., higher fuel taxes and that PEVs should have a relative advantage for the user that goes beyond their environmental performance.