10. Will Taiwan Become the Next Ukraine? Xi Jinping’s Preparation for Armed Reunification

The center of gravity in Xi Jinping’s Taiwan policy has moved from peaceful unification to military coercion. Xi Jinping has set a timetable and intensified military preparation to coerce Taiwan into accepting his terms of unification and take Taiwan by force if needed. Russia’s poor performance in Ukraine has not given Xi a pause but offered lessons about the importance of being well prepared to conquer Taiwan. Xi Jinping has tolerated and used online armed unification opinions to support his military threat. Xi has taken steps to enhance the capacity of the PLA for joint operation and logistic support, tried to minimize economic volubility to the Western sanctions if China launches the war, and tried to deter possible US intervention in the Taiwan contingency. The shift of Xi Jinping’s priority toward military coercion is primarily because of his inflated sense of empowerment supported by China’s new quotient of wealth and military capacities. Another driver is the gloomy outlook of peaceful reunification. For Xi, the Taiwan issue is China’s core national interest and is essentially non-negotiable, important enough to go to war if pushed. China as a “divided nation” simply does not sit well with his China Dream. The prospect of Taiwan becoming the next Ukraine is real.