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2022 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

3. WTO in a Changing Geopolitical Environment

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ABSTRACT

The creation of the WTO in 1995 was emblematic of a moment in time. Three factors determined its shape: globalization was gaining rapid momentum; the collapse of the Soviet Union (before the rise of China) left the US as the sole superpower; and the economic consensus in the west had shifted from a post-war Keynesian to a neoliberal view that markets were the best way to allocate resources. The resulting WTO rule book for transnational economic governance was written by the west, particularly the US, to protect the rights of private firms while reigning in government intervention. The chapter explores these features and then turns to the challenges to the organization’s legitimacy, beginning with discontent among developing countries, which considered its terms to be unfair to their development prospects, and civil society. The US gradually came to resent the constraints that the WTO dispute settlement mechanism placed on its own behavior. As China grew as major trading power, several western countries began to agitate for changes in the rules to constrain the Chinese model of capitalism. The WTO is now strained further by rising geostrategic competition between the US and China and the economic and health effects of the global coronavirus pandemic. The chapter lays out three possible futures for the WTO as it navigates these complex currents.

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Footnotes
1
The twenty-three countries that negotiated and signed the original GATT in 1947 were Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Burma (Myanmar), Canada, Ceylon (Sri Lanka), Chile, China, Cuba, Czechoslovakia (Czech Republic and Slovakia), France, India, Lebanon, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, South Africa, Southern Rhodesia (Zimbabwe), Syria, United Kingdom, and United States.
 
2
The International Trade Organization (ITO) was conceived as part of the multilateral governance architecture created after World War II to set rules for the international economy. The ITO was intended to foster economic recovery after the war and to rein in the type of punitive economic actions that contributed to the war. It was meant to complement the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank (formally the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, IBRD) as part of a system of international economic governance. However changing domestic political alignments and the advent of the Cold War led the US, one of the original architects of the ITO, to withdraw its support and the organization never came into being.
 
3
An example of the Quad’s blocking behavior can be found in the testimony of the U.S. Trade Representative at a March 2000 hearing of the Senate Finance Subcommittee on International Trade, in which she stated that some “base line understanding” among the Quad countries would have to be the “first step” toward reconvening negotiations after the WTO ministerial meeting ended in failure in Seattle in 1999. A number of differences between the United States and the EU had not been overcome there and she stated, “If the major trading partners cannot sort out their differences there will not be another round.”.
 
4
For example, the G33, also known as the “Friends of Special Products” in agriculture, is a coalition of developing countries pressing for flexibility for developing countries to undertake limited market opening in agriculture to protect their small-scale farmers, while the G20 coalition of developing countries (not to be confused with the G-20 summit grouping formed in 2008) presses for ambitious reforms of agriculture in developed countries with some flexibility for developing countries.
 
5
As part of its economic reform and opening up process, China had requested to resume its pre-revolution status as a contracting party to the GATT and a working party on its status was established in 1987. That ongoing work was overtaken by the creation of the WTO in 1995 and China’s request to accede to it. The GATT working party was converted to a WTO working party.
 
6
Mexico concluded bilateral negotiations on market access with China on 13 September 2001, days in advance of the final meeting of the WTO Working Party on China’s Accession on 17 September 2001.
 
7
It is interesting to note that the shifts in production by firms in these two countries shifted more high-skilled work rather than low-skilled work.
 
8
Member states are required to notify the WTO about various trade practices but the reports are often late. A group of countries seeks to strengthen these requirements and impose administrative and representational penalties on countries failing to meet notification requirements.
 
9
A group of 37 eminent U.S. and Chinese economists, including five winners of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, formed a US-China Trade Policy Working Group in 2019 and issued a Joint Statement calling for an approach that: “(i) allows countries considerable latitude at home to design a wide variety of industrial policies, technological systems, and social standards, (ii) allows countries to use well-calibrated policies (including tariff and non-tariff trade policies) to protect their industrial, technological, and social policy choices domestically without imposing unnecessary and asymmetric burdens on foreign actors, and (iii) maintains a set of trade rules that prevent countries from deploying what economists call ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ policies – policies that produce benefits to the home country only through the harm they impose on other countries.”.
 
Literature
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Metadata
Title
WTO in a Changing Geopolitical Environment
Author
Sandra Polaski
Copyright Year
2022
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-13757-0_3

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