You can’t always get what you want: why revolutionary outcomes so often diverge from revolutionary goals

The article delves into the discrepancies between revolutionary goals and outcomes, focusing on the challenges faced by new regimes after the overthrow of the old. It introduces a decision tree model to illustrate the various paths that revolutions can take, influenced by factors such as the type of regime, military strength, and external threats. The model highlights the crucial role of military control in determining the stability and nature of post-revolutionary regimes, whether they become authoritarian or constitutional. The text also discusses the importance of effective governance, leadership commitment to democracy, and avoiding corruption and factionalism. It concludes by emphasizing the need for a process-centered approach to understanding revolutionary outcomes, as traditional typologies based on pre-revolutionary conditions often fail to capture the complexities and contingencies of post-revolutionary dynamics.