nach oben

Erschienen in:

2017 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

3. Endorsements in Primary Elections

verfasst von : Andrea Ceron

Erschienen in: Social Media and Political Accountability

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

Chapter 3 proves that the statements published on social media can be analyzed profitably through automated scaling techniques of text analysis in order to map the intra-party structure of a party; it analyzes comments written by prominent factional leaders of the Italian Democratic Party to measure their ideological distance. Statistical analysis shows that such distance can explain a politician’s propensity to endorse one or another candidate running for the party nomination and it is positively associated with the propensity to overtly criticize a candidate.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Vorheriges Kapitel Research Design and Methods

Nächstes Kapitel Ministerial Selection: Twitter as a Signal?

For instance, I used comments made by David Sassoli and Marina Sereni to supplement Franceschini. I analyzed declarations issued by Francesco Boccia and Marco Meloni as both can be considered the “Man-Friday” of Letta, and similarly I retained texts written by Nicola La Torre and Gianni Cuperlo, “spokesmen” of D’Alema, to account for the position of Dalemiani. Although Matteo Orfini has long been a supporter of D’Alema, his affiliation with this faction can be questioned as Orfini can be considered to be halfway between Dalemiani and Giovani Turchi. Changing his factional affiliation, however, does not alter the substantive results.

A few politicians explicitly declared their non-endorsement of both candidates. Notice that analyzing the endorsement in favor of Renzi leads to similar results.

Since there are repeated observations (politicians) within the same party subgroup I provide standard errors clustered on factions. Using a multilevel logit produces the same results (Ceron 2017).

Furthermore, when measuring intra-party heterogeneity through text analysis of factional motions presented in the 2009 party congress, the distance between factions and candidates is less informative about the probability to endorse the party leader or not, if compared to this measure.

Experience does not convey any statistically significant effect on the likelihood of endorsing Renzi.

Notice that this result is not affected by the fact that policy positions have been estimated from the same source of data used to count attacks. In fact, when I exclude words related to attack statements the results of the Wordfish analysis do not change.

This feature, however, seems to concern only issue-based attacks, while there is no effect of Distance on valence-related attacks. This is probably due to the fact that incentives to compete on valence are higher when the rivals are closer (Curini 2015; Ceron and Curini 2016).

Ansolabehere, S., & Iyengar, S. 1995. Going Negative: How Political Advertisements Shrink and Polarize the Electorate. New York: Free Press.

Bäck, H., & Debus, M. 2016. Political Parties, Parliaments and Legislative Speechmaking. Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRef

Barberá, P. (2015). Birds of the same feather tweet together: Bayesian ideal point estimation using Twitter data. Political Analysis, 23(1), 76–91.CrossRef

Benoit, K., & Herzog, A. (2017). Text analysis: Estimating policy preferences from written and spoken words. In: Bachner, J., Wagner Hill, K, & Ginsberg, B (Eds.), Analytics, Policy and Governance. Yale: Yale University Press.

Benoit, K., Bräuninger, T., & Debus, M. (2009). Challenges for estimating policy preferences: Announcing an open access archive of political documents. German Politics, 18(3), 441–454.CrossRef

Bernauer, J., & Bräuninger, T. (2009). Intra-party preference heterogeneity and faction membership in the 15th German Bundestag: A computational text analysis of Parliamentary speeches. German Politics, 18(3), 385–402.CrossRef

Boireau, M. (2014). Determining political stances from twitter timelines: The belgian parliament case. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Electronic Governance and Open Society: Challenges in Eurasia (pp. 145–151).

Bond, R., & Messing, S. (2015). Quantifying social media’s political space: Estimating ideology from publicly revealed preferences on facebook. American Political Science, 109(1), 62–78.CrossRef

Boucek, F. (2009). Rethinking factionalism: Typologies. Intra-party dynamics and three faces of factionalism. Party Politics, 15(4), 455–485.CrossRef

Boucek, F. 2012. Factional Politics. How Dominant Parties Implode or Stabilize. London: Palgrave MacMillan.

Bowler, S., Farrell, D.M., & Katz, R.S. (1999). Party cohesion, party discipline, and parliaments. In Bowler, S, Farrell, D.M., & Katz, R.S. (Eds.), Party Discipline and Parliamentary Government. (pp. 3–22). Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press.

Carrubba, C.J., Gabel, M., & Hug, S. (2008). Legislative voting behavior, seen and unseen: A theory of roll-call vote selection. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 33(4), 543–572.CrossRef

Ceron, A. (2012). Bounded oligarchy: How and when factions constrain leaders in party position-taking. Electoral Studies, 31(4), 689–701.CrossRef

Ceron, A. (2015a). The politics of fission: Analysis of faction breakaways among Italian parties (1946–2011). British Journal of Political Science, 45(1), 121–139.CrossRef

Ceron, A. (2017). Intra-party politics in 140 characters. Party Politics, 23(1), 7–17.CrossRef

Ceron, A., & Curini, L. (2016). e-Campaigning in the 2014 European elections: The emphasis on valence issues in a two-dimensional multiparty system. Party Politics, 10.1177/1354068816642807.

Ceron, A., Curini, L., & Iacus, S.M. 2017. Politics and Big Data: Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections with Social Media. London: Routledge.

Conover, M., Gonçalves, B., Ratkiewicz, J., Flammini, A., & Menczer, F. 2011. Predicting the political alignment of twitter users. In SocialCom/PASSAT 2011 (pp. 192–199).

Curini, L. (2015). The conditional ideological inducement to campaign on character valence issues in multiparty systems the case of corruption. Comparative Political Studies, 48(2), 168–192.CrossRef

Curini, L., & Martelli, P. (2010). Ideological proximity and valence competition. Negative campaigning through allegation of corruption in the Italian legislative arena from 1946 to 1994. Electoral Studies, 29(4), 636–647.CrossRef

Debus, M., & Bräuninger, T. (2009). Intra-party factions and coalition bargaining. In: Giannetti, D. & Benoit, K. (Eds.), Intra-Party Politics and Coalition Government. (pp. 121–145). New York, NY: Routledge.

Djupe, P.A., & Peterson, D.A.M. (2002). The impact of negative campaigning: Evidence from the 1998 senatorial primaries. Political Research Quarterly, 55(4), 845–860.CrossRef

Dominguez, C.B.K. (2011). Does the party matter? Endorsements in congressional primaries. Political Research Quarterly, 64(3), 534–544.CrossRef

Ecker, A. (2015). Estimating policy positions using social network data: Cross-validating position estimates of political parties and individual legislators in the polish parliament. Social Science Computer Review, doi: 10.1177/0894439315602662.

Giannetti, D., & Benoit, K. (Eds.) (2009). Intra-Party Politics and Coalition Government. New York, NY: Routledge.

Giannetti, D., & Laver, M. (2009). ‘Party cohesion, party discipline, party factions in Italy. In: Giannetti, D. & Benoit, K. (Eds.), Intra-Party Politics and Coalition Government. (pp. 146–168). New York, NY: Routledge.

Greene, Z., & Haber, M. (2014). Leadership competition and disagreement at party national congresses. British Journal of Political Science, doi: 10.1017/S0007123414000283.

Hassell, H. (2016). Party control of party primaries: Party influence in nominations for the US senate. Journal of Politics, 78(1), 75–87.CrossRef

Heller, W.B., & Mershon, C. (2008). Dealing in discipline: Party switching and legislative voting in the Italian chamber of deputies, 1988-2000. American Journal of Political Science, 52(4), 910–924.CrossRef

Hix, S., & Jun, H.W. (2009). Party behaviour in the parliamentary arena. Party Politics, 15(6), 667–694. Ibenskas, R., & Sikk, A. (2017). Patterns of party change in central and eastern europe, 1990–2015. Party Politics, 23(1), 43–54.CrossRef

Karpowitz, C., Monson, J., Patterson, K., & Pope, J. (2011). Tea time in America? The impact of the tea party movement on the 2010 midterm elections. PS: Political Science & Politics, 44(2), 303–309.

Lau, R.R., & Pomper, G. 2004. Negative Campaigning: An Analysis of U.S. Senate Elections. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.

Lau, R.R., Sigelman, L., & Rovner, I.B. (2007). The effects of negative political campaigns: A meta-analytic reassessment. Journal of Politics, 69, 1176–1209.CrossRef

Livne, A., Simmons, M.P., Adar, E., & Adamic, L.A. (2011). The party is over here: Structure and content in the 2010 election. Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence.

Lupia, A. (1994). Shortcuts versus encyclopedias: Information and voting behavior in California insurance reform elections. American Political Science Review, 88(1), 63–76.CrossRef

McDermott, M.L. (2006). Not for members only: Group endorsements as electoral information cues. Political Research Quarterly, 59(2), 249–257.CrossRef

McElroy, G. (2009). Intra-party politics at the trans-national level. In: Giannetti, D. & Benoit, K. (Eds.), Intra-Party Politics and Coalition Government. (pp. 202–225). New York, NY: Routledge.

McGann, A.J. (2002). The advantages of ideological cohesion: A model of constituency representation and electoral competition in multi-party democracies. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 14(1), 37–70.CrossRef

Medzihorsky, J., Littvay, L., & Jenne, E.K. (2014). Has the tea party era radicalized the republican party? Evidence from text analysis of the 2008 and 2012 republican primary debates. PS: Politics and Political Science, 47(4), 806–812.

Peterson, D. A. M., & Djupe, P. A. (2005). When primary campaigns go negative: The determinants of campaign negativity. Political Research Quarterly, 58(1), 45–54.CrossRef

Proksch, S.-O., & Slapin, J.B. 2015. The Politics of Parliamentary Debate: Parties, Rebels and Representation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef

Roese, N.J., & Sande, G.N. (1993). Backlash effects in attack politics. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 23(8), 632–653.CrossRef

Sartori, G. 1976. Parties and Party System. A Framework for Analysis. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Schober, M.F., Conrad, F.G., & Antoun, C.et al.. (2015). Precision and disclosure in text and voice interviews on smartphones. PLoS ONE, 10(6), e0128337. 10.1371/journal.pone.0128337CrossRef

Seddone, A. (2012). Per chi suona la campana. Uno sguardo sugli endorsement. Questioni Primarie, 4, 7–8.

Spirling, A., & Quinn, K.M. (2010). Identifying intra-party voting blocs in the UK House of Commons. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 490, 447–457.CrossRef

Suler, J. (2004). The online disinhibition effect. CyberPsychology and Behavior, 7(3), 321–326.CrossRef

Sylwester, K., & Purver, M. (2015). Twitter language use reflects psychological differences between democrats and republicans. PLoS ONE, 10(9), e0137422. 10.1371/journal.pone.0137422.CrossRef

Vergeer, M., Hermans, L., & Sam, S. (2013). Online social networks and micro-blogging in political campaigning: The exploration of a new campaign tool and a new campaign style. Party Politics, 19(3), 477–501.CrossRef

Walter, A.S. (2014). Choosing the enemy: Attack behaviour in a multiparty system. Party Politics, 20(3), 311–323.CrossRef

Cox, G.W., Rosenbluth, F.M., & Thies, M.F. (2000). Electoral rules, career ambitions, and party structure: Comparing factions in Japan’s upper and lower houses. American Journal of Political Science, 44(1), 115–122.CrossRef

Ibenskas, R., & Sikk, A. (2017). Patterns of party change in Central and Eastern Europe, 1990–2015. Party Politics, 23(1), 43–54.CrossRef

Titel: Endorsements in Primary Elections
verfasst von: Andrea Ceron
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: Social Media and Political Accountability
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-52626-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-52627-0

Copyright-Jahr: 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52627-0_3