2. Energy Transitions

Scarcity is erroneously perceived as being what impels energy transitions, with policy actions hastening or impeding the process. This chapter argues that technological changes initiate recursive, often tentative, shifts in fuel usage. As society locks itself into certain patterns of supplying energy, energy transitions often exact high financial and organisational costs for existing firms and society. For this reason, in order to succeed, persistent dedication and considerable patience are demanded from managers, and stakeholders, as well as in terms of policy; but these are seldom forthcoming. Almost by default, firms rely on markets—imperfect as they are—for guidance before acting to secure their future. Two contrasting stories are examined: Transocean, an oilrig operator, hopes for better days when oil prices could rebound. In contrast Tesla, the pioneering electric vehicle company, sets out to seize opportunities hitherto unknown, which will potentially make oil obsolete. Rising financial losses are “balanced”, albeit precariously, by managerial optimism.