Weitere Artikel dieser Ausgabe durch Wischen aufrufen
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Water supply reservoir management is based on long-term management policies which depend on customer demands and seasonal hydrologic changes. However, increasing frequency and intensity of precipitation events is necessitating the short-term management of such reservoirs to reduce downstream flooding. Operational management of reservoirs at hourly/daily timescales is challenging due to the uncertainty associated with the inflow forecasts and the volumes in the reservoir. We present an ensemble-based streamflow prediction and optimization framework consisting of a regional scale hydrologic model forced with ensemble precipitation inputs to obtain probabilistic inflows to the reservoir. A multi-objective dynamic programming model was used to obtain optimized release strategies accounting for the inflow uncertainties. The proposed framework was evaluated at a water supply reservoir in the Hackensack River basin in New Jersey during Hurricanes Irene and Sandy. Hurricane Irene resulted in the overtopping of the dam despite releases made in anticipation of the event and resulted in severe downstream flooding. Hurricane Sandy was characterized by low rainfall, however, raised significant concerns of flooding given the nature of the event. The improvement in NSE for the Hurricane Irene inflows from 0.5 to 0.76 and reduction of the spread of PBIAS with decreasing lead times resulted in improvements in the forecast informed releases. This study provides perspectives on the benefits of the proposed forecasting and optimization framework in reducing the decision making burden on the operator by providing the uncertainties associated with the inflows, releases and the water levels in the reservoir.
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu diesem Inhalt zu erhalten
Sie möchten Zugang zu diesem Inhalt erhalten? Dann informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:
Adamowski JF (2008) Peak Daily Water Demand Forecast Modeling Using Artificial Neural Networks. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 134(2):119–128. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2008)134:2(119) CrossRef
Baker, M., III (1978), Appraisal of water resources in the Hackensack River basinNational Dam Safety Program. Oradell Reservoir Dam (NJ00258), Hackensack River Basin, Hackensack River, Bergen County, New Jersey. Phase I Inspection Report.
Bartholmes JC, Thielen J, Ramos MH, Gentilini S (2009) The european flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 13(2):141–153 CrossRef
Boucher M-A, Tremblay D, Delorme L, Perreault L, Anctil F (2012) Hydro-economic assessment of hydrological forecasting systems. Journal of Hydrology 416:133–144 CrossRef
Bourdin DR, Fleming SW, Stull RB (2012) Streamflow modelling: a primer on applications, approaches and challenges. Atmosphere-Ocean 50(4):507–536 CrossRef
Buizza R (2008) The value of probabilistic prediction. Atmospheric Science Letters 9(2):36–42 CrossRef
Buizza R, Hollingsworth A, Lalaurette F, Ghelli A (1999) Probabilistic predictions of precipitation using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Weather and Forecasting 14(2):168–189 CrossRef
Cannas B, Fanni A, See L, Sias G (2006) Data preprocessing for river flow forecasting using neural networks: Wavelet transforms and data partitioning, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth. Parts A/B/C 31(18):1164–1171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2006.03.020 CrossRef
Carswell, L. D. (1976), Appraisal of water resources in the Hackensack River basin, New Jersey Rep., US Geological Survey.
Celeste AB, Billib M (2009) Evaluation of stochastic reservoir operation optimization models. Advances in Water Resources 32(9):1429–1443 CrossRef
Choi W, Kim SJ, Rasmussen PF, Moore AR (2009) Use of the North American Regional Reanalysis for hydrological modelling in Manitoba. Canadian Water Resources Journal 34(1):17–36 CrossRef
Cloke H, Pappenberger F (2009) Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. Journal of Hydrology 375(3):613–626 CrossRef
Côté P, Leconte R (2016) Comparison of Stochastic Optimization Algorithms for Hydropower Reservoir Operation with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 142(2):04015046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000575 CrossRef
Coulibaly P, Anctil F, Bobée B (2000) Daily reservoir inflow forecasting using artificial neural networks with stopped training approach. Journal of Hydrology 230(3–4):244–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00214-6 CrossRef
Cuo L, Pagano TC, Wang QJ (2011) A Review of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and Their Use in Short- to Medium-Range Streamflow Forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology 12(5):713–728 CrossRef
D’Oria, M., P. Mignosa, and M. G. Tanda (2012) Reverse level pool routing: Comparison between a deterministic and a stochastic approach Journal of Hydrology, 470-471(Supplement C), 28-35, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.07.045.
DEP, S. O. N. J. D. O. E. P. (2012), Governor Christie takes action to mitigate potential impacts from Hurricane, in Approves lowering of North Jersey reservoirs, edited.
EPA (2015), Lower Hackensack River Bergen and Hudson Counties New Jersey-Prelimnary Assessment Rep., Environmental Protection Agency.
Eum H-I, Kim Y-O, Palmer RN (2011) Optimal Drought Management Using Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming with a Hedging Rule. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 137(1):113–122. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000095 CrossRef
Fan FM, Collischonn W, Meller A, Botelho LCM (2014) Ensemble streamflow forecasting experiments in a tropical basin: The São Francisco river case study. Journal of Hydrology 519(PD):2906–2919 CrossRef
Fan FM, Schwanenberg D, Alvarado R, Assis dos Reis A, Collischonn W, Naumman S (2016) Performance of Deterministic and Probabilistic Hydrological Forecasts for the Short-Term Optimization of a Tropical Hydropower Reservoir. Water Resources Management 30(10):3609–3625. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1377-8 CrossRef
Feldman AD (2000) Hydrologic modeling system HEC-HMS: technical reference manual. US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center
FEMA (2014), Flood Insurance Study Bergen County, New Jersey Rep.
Ficchì A, Raso L, Dorchies D, Pianosi F, Malaterre P-O, Overloop P-JV, Jay-Allemand M (2016) Optimal Operation of the Multireservoir System in the Seine River Basin Using Deterministic and Ensemble Forecasts. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 142(1):05015005. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000571 CrossRef
Fleming, M., and J. Doan (2013), HEC-GeoHMS geospatial hydrologic modelling extension: user’s manual version 10.2, US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, Hydrologic Engineering Centre, Davis, CA.
Galelli S, Goedbloed A, Schwanenberg D, Overloop P-JV (2014) Optimal Real-Time Operation of Multipurpose Urban Reservoirs: Case Study in Singapore. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 140(4):511–523. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000342 CrossRef
García-Ruiz JM, López-Moreno JI, Vicente-Serrano SM, Lasanta-Martínez T, Beguería S (2011) Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario. Earth-Science Reviews 105(3-4):121–139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.01.006 CrossRef
Gaume E, Gosset R (2003) Over-parameterisation, a major obstacle to the use of artificial neural networks in hydrology? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 7(5):693–706 CrossRef
Gesch D, Oimoen M, Greenlee S, Nelson C, Steuck M, Tyler D (2002) The national elevation dataset. Photogrammetric engineering and remote sensing 68(1):5–32
Graf WL, Wohl E, Sinha T, Sabo JL (2010) Sedimentation and sustainability of western American reservoirs. Water Resources Research 46(12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008836
Gupta, H. V., K. J. Beven, and T. Wagener (2005), Model Calibration and uncertainty estimation, in Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences,, edited, pp. 2015-2032, John Wiley and Sons.
Hagedorn, R. (2008), Using the ECMWF reforecast data set to calibrate EPS reforecasts, in ECMWF Newsletter, edited, pp. 8-13.
Halwatura D, Najim MMM (2013) Application of the HEC-HMS model for runoff simulation in a tropical catchment. Environmental Modelling and Software 46:155–162 CrossRef
HEC (2000a), Hydrologic Modeling System: Technical Reference Manual. US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA.
HEC (2000b), Hydrologic Modeling System: Technical Reference Manual. US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA. Rep.
Huizinga, R. J. (2014), An initial abstraction and constant loss model, and methods for estimating unit hydrographs, peak streamflows, and flood volumes for urban basins in Missouri Rep. 2328-0328, US Geological Survey.
Johnson, C., A. Yung, K. Nixon, and D. Legates (2001) The use of HEC-GeoHMS and HEC-HMS to Perform Grid-Based Hydrology Analysis of a Watershed, edited, Texas: Dodson & Associated, inc. (tidak dirujuk).
Jothiprakash V, Magar RB (2012) Multi-time-step ahead daily and hourly intermittent reservoir inflow prediction by artificial intelligent techniques using lumped and distributed data. Journal of Hydrology 450–451:293–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.04.045 CrossRef
Krzysztofowicz R (2001) Integrator of uncertainties for probabilistic river stage forecasting: precipitation-dependent model. Journal of Hydrology 69-85 CrossRef
Kull DW, Feldman AD (1998) Evolution of Clark's unit graph method to spatially distributed runoff. Journal of Hydrologic engineering 3(1):9–19 CrossRef
Labadie JW (2004) Optimal Operation of Multireservoir Systems: State-of-the-Art Review. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 130(2):93–111. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:2(93) CrossRef
Lane, N. (2008), Aging infrastructure: Dam safety Rep.
Laugesen, R., N. Tuteja, D. Shin, T. Chia, and U. Khan (2011), Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting with a workflow-based dynamic hydrologic modelling approach, paper presented at Paper accepted for oral presentation at Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Conference.
Loucks DP, Van Beek E, Stedinger JR, Dijkman JP, Villars MT (2005) Water resources systems planning and management: an introduction to methods, models and applications. Unesco, Paris
Maidment, D. R. (1992), Handbook of hydrology, McGraw-Hill Inc.
Maidment DR, Djokic D (2000) Hydrologic and hydraulic modeling support: With geographic information systems. ESRI, Inc
McCollor D, Stull R (2008) Hydrometeorological short-range ensemble forecasts in complex terrain. Part II: Economic evaluation, Weather and Forecasting 23(4):557–574
Mesinger F et al (2006) North American Regional Reanalysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87(3):343–360 CrossRef
Molteni F, Buizza R, Palmer TN, Petroliagis T (1996) The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 122(529):73–119 CrossRef
Mukerji A, Chatterjee C, Raghuwanshi NS (2009) Flood Forecasting Using ANN, Neuro-Fuzzy, and Neuro-GA Models. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 14(6):647–652. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000040 CrossRef
Munsell EB, Zhang F (2014) Prediction and uncertainty of Hurricane Sandy (2012) explored through a real-time cloud-permitting ensemble analysis and forecast system assimilating airborne Doppler radar observations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 6(1):38–58. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000297 CrossRef
Rabuffetti D, Barbero S (2005) Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting: the Piemonte Region case study. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 9(4):457–466 CrossRef
Ramos MH, Bartholmes J, Thielen-del Pozo J (2007) Development of decision support products based on ensemble forecasts in the European flood alert system. Atmospheric Science Letters 8(4):113–119 CrossRef
Saleh F, Ramaswamy V, Georgas N, Blumberg AF, Pullen J (2016) A retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrologic event: a case study of Hurricane Irene and on the Hudson River basin. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 20(7):2649–2667. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2649-2016 CrossRef
Saleh F, Ramaswamy V, Georgas N, Blumberg AF, Pullen J (2018) Inter-comparison between retrospective ensemble streamflow forecasts using meteorological inputs from ECMWF and NOAA/ESRL in the hudson river sub-basins during hurricane irene (2011). Hydrology Research:nh2018182–nh2018182. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2018.182 CrossRef
Schwanenberg D, Fan FM, Naumann S, Kuwajima JI, Montero RA, dos Reis AA (2015) Short-term reservoir optimization for flood mitigation under meteorological and hydrological forecast uncertainty. Water Resources Management 29(5):1635–1651 CrossRef
Shoghli, B., Y. H. Lim, and J. Alikhani (2016), Evaluating the Effect of Climate Change on the Design Parameters of Embankment Dams: Case Studies Using Remote Sensing Data, paper presented at World Environmental And Water Resources Congress 2016: Hydraulics and Waterways and Hydro-Climate/Climate Change - Papers from Sessions of the Proceedings of the 2016 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress.
Singh H, Sinha T, Sankarasubramanian A (2014) Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change and Population Growth on Within-Year Reservoir Systems. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 141(6):04014078. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000474 CrossRef
Solaiman TA, Simonovic SP (2010) National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalyses data for hydrologic modelling on a basin scale. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 37(4):611–623 CrossRef
Thiemig V, Bisselink B, Pappenberger F, Thielen J (2015) A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19(8):3365–3385 CrossRef
Trubilowicz JW, Shea J, Jost G, Moore R (2016) Suitability of North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) output for hydrologic modelling and analysis in mountainous terrain. Processes, Hydrological CrossRef
Turner SWD, Galelli S (2016) Water supply sensitivity to climate change: An R package for implementing reservoir storage analysis in global and regional impact studies. Environmental Modelling & Software 76:13–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.11.007 CrossRef
USACE (2016), Hydrologic Modeling System: User’s Manual Version 4.2, US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA, USA.
Valipour M (2012) Number of required observation data for rainfall forecasting according to the climate conditions. American Journal of Scientific Research 74:79–86
Valipour M, Banihabib ME, Behbahani SMR (2013) Comparison of the ARMA. ARIMA, and the autoregressive artificial neural network models in forecasting the monthly inflow of Dez dam reservoir, Journal of Hydrology 476:433–441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.017 CrossRef
Watson, K. M., J. V. Collenburg, and R. G. Reiser (2013), Hurricane Irene and associated floods of August 27-30, 2011, in New Jersey Rep. 2328-0328, US Geological Survey.
Yang S-C, Yang T-H (2014) Uncertainty assessment: reservoir inflow forecasting with ensemble precipitation forecasts and HEC-HMS. Advances in Meteorology 2014
Zavala VM, Constantinescu EM, Krause T, Anitescu M (2009) On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information. Journal of Process Control 19(10):1725–1736 CrossRef
Zhang H, Wang Y, Wang Y, Li D, Wang X (2013) The effect of watershed scale on HEC-HMS calibrated parameters: a case study in the Clear Creek watershed in Iowa, US. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17(7):2735–2745 CrossRef
Zhao T, Cai X, Yang D (2011) Effect of streamflow forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Advances in Water Resources 34(4):495–504. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.01.004 CrossRef
Zoppou C (1999) Reverse Routing of Flood Hydrographs Using Level Pool Routing. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 4(2):184–188. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(1999)4:2(184) CrossRef
- Ensemble Based Forecasting and Optimization Framework to Optimize Releases from Water Supply Reservoirs for Flood Control
- Springer Netherlands