Estimating the generation of recycled metals from obsolete motorcycles in Vietnam for ELV management

The demand for various modes of transportation has significantly increased around the world due to rapid urbanization, the increase in population, and changes in lifestyle. This inevitably is associated with a significant increase in the number of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs). In particular, the number of obsolete motorcycles is rapidly increasing in developing countries. In Vietnam, environmental pollution and the dissipation of resources are the consequences of not having a system to properly treat and recycle obsolete motorcycles. Towards finding a solution to these problems, the focus of this study was to develop the compositional data by disassembling a motorcycle and then estimating the number of obsolete motorcycles and the amount of material contained in them. A population balance model, logistic function, and Weibull distribution were used to estimate this data for the period 2010–2030 in Vietnam. The results indicate that the number of obsolete motorcycles in 2030 will be 2.6 times more than in 2010. Finally, to consider the appropriate management strategy of obsolete motorcycles in Vietnam, the feasibility of intermediate treatment facilities is determined through a techno-economic assessment.