Annual flood risk is usually estimated by fitting an a priori assumed probability distribution funetion to the observed annual extremepeak series (parametrie method). The main shorteomings of such a proeedure are: the seleetion of a distribution, reliability of parameters (espeeially for skewed data with short record length), inability to analyze multimodal distributions resulting from flooding due to snowmelt versus thunderstorm aetivity, and treatment of outliers.A new methodology has been developed based on the nonparametrie eoneepts for estimation of probabillty density funetion. The nonparametrie method overeomes some of the limitations inherent in the parametrie method, and is developed based on a few and very mild assumptions.Based on the numerieal results using real data and Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the nonparametrie flood estimates are accurate and suitable for multimodal denslties.
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- Estimation of Flood Frequencies by a Nonparametric Density Procedure
- Springer Netherlands