Estimation of Uncertainties in Transfer Matrix Elements in Long Range Transport Modeling

In long range transport problems the source receptor relationships are conveniently studied by the use of a transfer matrix when the model uses linear chemistry and scavenging phenomena. The size of the transfer matrix depends on the number of sources and receptors chosen. It is expected that each element of the transfer matrix will have a degree of uncertainty associated with it, which is attributed to the modelling errors and the variability of the atmospheric variables. The latter source of uncertainty is best understood if one considers the fact that models are designed to give ensemble average values which are difficult to obtain in the atmosphere because of the large number of scales which govern atmospheric flows.