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Public Choice

Erschienen in:

24.08.2016

Ethnic inclusion, democracy, and terrorism

verfasst von: Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Sara M. T. Polo

Erschienen in: Public Choice | Ausgabe 3-4/2016

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Abstract

Previous research has shown that ethnic exclusion and restricted political access can motivate ethnic groups to resort to violence. Although these links are better established for civil wars or conventional conflict, we believe that the same logic should be applicable to ethnic terrorism as well. If so, can reforms towards greater ethnic inclusion also reduce terrorist risks? We argue that reform and changes towards greater ethnic inclusion and democratization should induce substitution and reduce the volume of terrorist violence, even if attacks by splinter groups may persist. We develop propositions on terrorist attack frequency, given group characteristics and accommodation. We take advantage of the large changes towards democratization, decreased discrimination, and increased ethnic accommodation since the third wave of democratization and the end of the Cold War, as well as new data linking domestic terrorist organization in the Global Terrorism Data to specific ethnic groups in the Ethnic Power Relations data. Our group-level analyses suggest considerable support for a decline in terrorism following accommodation.

Vorheriger Artikel Spatial spill-overs from terrorism on tourism: Western victims in Islamic destination countries

Nächster Artikel Terrorism’s effects on social capital in European countries

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Basuchoudhary and Shughart (2010) examine how a perception based measure of ethnic tensions influence transnational terrorism. Although this will reflect variation in ethnic relations and terrorism, it does not allow assessing to what extent political status may drive ethnic tensions.

We exclude transnational attacks since we focus on how ethnic exclusion and accommodation influence domestic terrorist events. The total number of ethnic groups varies across years, and can change if new independent states emerge (e.g., through decolonization or secession), or the EPR data classify a change in ethnic distinctions within a country.

We have also considered possible non-linear effects of regime type, but found no evidence that this specification changed the main results or notably improved the fit of the model. We provide these results in the Supplementary Appendix.

According to the EPR codebook, “an ethnic group is politically relevant if either at least one significant political actor claims to represent the interests of that group in the national political arena or if group members are systematically and intentionally discriminated against in the domain of public politics”; see http://www.icr.ethz.ch/data/epr/EPR-2014_Codebook.pdf.

Alternatively, democracy as competitive political institutions may be less relevant to terrorism than other forms of liberal constitutions such as the rule of law and economic freedom (see Basuchoudhary and Shughart 2010 for evidence on transnational terrorism).

We show in the appendix that there is some evidence for an interaction between democracy and group size, such that larger groups are less likely to use terrorism in democracies (the effect turns negative when relative group size is above the mean, i.e., 0.19). This is consistent with a logic wherein the impact of democracy varies depending on the potential power that a group can wield. However, a fuller analysis would need to consider other factors, such as electoral systems/representation and opportunities for conventional violence.

Our argument here is not that changes in accommodation are exogenous or unrelated to past terrorist activity by the group, but we simply try to evaluate the consequences of political status on motivation and attacks. It is entirely possible that terrorism by a group may push a government to provide accommodation, but it seems implausible that anticipated lower terrorism should promote concessions. Accommodation could conceivably increase terrorist activity if terrorist organizations were largely insensitive to any gains in status or perceived that more terrorism could bring yet larger future concessions. Our results, however, do not support this.

In the Supplementary Appendix we provide additional results where we let transitions interact with group size and again find some evidence of interaction. The tipping point is much lower for the sample excluding Asia, and the marginal effect turns negative for groups with a relative size above 0.05.

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Titel: Ethnic inclusion, democracy, and terrorism
verfasst von: Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
Sara M. T. Polo
Publikationsdatum: 24.08.2016
Verlag: Springer US
Erschienen in: Public Choice / Ausgabe 3-4/2016
Print ISSN: 0048-5829
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7101
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-016-0360-5

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