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Über dieses Buch

The twelfth edition of the European Energy Markets Observatory covers the full year 2009 and the winter 2009/2010. Key messages developed in the report include the following: -New energy trends are emerging after the crisis. -The crisis and some new investments resulted in an improved security of supply. -There has been little progress towards the creation of a single European energy market. -EU greenhouse gas emissions reduction objective will be met, but renewables and energy efficiency targets are a challenge. -Generation mix and customers' behavioral changes are calling for smart grids. -Utilities are focusing on reducing their debts.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

A Strategic Overview of the European Energy Markets

As foreseen, 2009 was a crisis year in Europe and in the US. While other regions in the world recovered by mid 2009, it was only at the end of 2009 that green shoots appeared in North America followed by Europe. Hopes were high in early 2010 that the economy would grow, albeit even slowly, however the solvency of certain European countries highlighted the eurozone fragility. Combined with a slower growth in the US and other countries, it has introduced doubts about a sustained recovery. Bumpy recovery scenarios have emerged again in Europe.

Colette Lewiner

Competitive Power: Electricity Generation

In 2009, electricity demand was influenced by two conflicting drivers: the economic crisis, which strongly hit industrial power consumption and the cold winter temperatures, which increased electricity demand. The first factor more than offset the second one.

Colette Lewiner

Electricity Wholesale Markets

Worldwide demand decreased by 1.3 million barrels per day. It increased in Q4 2009 in comparison to Q4 2008 for the first time since Q2 2008, pulled by demand from Africa, the Middle East and Asia, in particular China.

Colette Lewiner

Electricity Retail Markets

In 2009/2010, the European electricity retail markets went through a period of unprecedented drop in demand and price conditions. While the beginning of 2009 was heavily affected by the economic crisis, starting from the last quarter of 2009, in 2010 the markets started to recover

Colette Lewiner

Competitive Gas: Upstream

The main factors explaining this pattern are the collapsing gas demand (due to the economic recession) together with the large availability of cheap liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the development of unconventional gas in the US (which currently accounts for around 50 % of the US gas production).

Colette Lewiner

LNG

The LNG consumption in Europe grew strongly by 26.7% in 2009 (from 540 to 684 TWh). The role of LNG in terms of supply diversification has become of greater importance for the EU-27 where LNG represented 20.5% of the total gas trade (LNG + piped gas) in 2009 versus 15.7% in 2008. The increase in LNG flows towards Europe can be attributed to the following factors:

Colette Lewiner

Gas Wholesale Markets

The wholesale gas spot prices on the three historical trading European hubs (the UK, Zeebrugge and the Netherlands) followed the same trend during 2009 and the winter of 2009/2010, reaching a monthly low in September 2009 at €7.7/MWh (in the UK). The UK spot prices averaged €11.5/MWh in 2009, a 52% drop compared to the 2008 level. The winter of 2009/2010 price decreased by around 40% to reach €12/MWh, leaving the summer of 2009 prices at €10/MWh (see Table 6.1).

Colette Lewiner

Gas Retail Markets

In 2009, Europe consumed 5,010 TWh of natural gas. That represents a 6.1% decrease over the 2008 figures and is the direct result of the economic downturn (see Table 7.1). According to Eurostat, the GDP in the EU-27 zone fell by 4.2% during the same period.

Colette Lewiner

Infrastructures and Regulated Activities: Electricity Transmission

There has been a long standing drive to harmonize standards across the European TSOs. However, the focus on this area has increased under the 3rd Electricity Market Directive.

Colette Lewiner

Electricity Distribution

Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) companies have the responsibility to maintain and develop the physical distribution networks that deliver electricity to end consumers. DNOs often have responsibilities such as metering, settlement, public lighting and supply of last resort. There are thousands of distribution companies in Europe (see Table 9.1). Some are active on a national level, some in large regions within a country, but most of them operate purely at the municipality level.

Colette Lewiner

Gas Transmission

With the Directive 2009/73/EC of July 13, 2009, that entered into force on September 3, 2009, the European Commission has adopted new measures for the internal market in natural gas, including a set of rules for the unbundling of gas transmission operations. Accordingly, Member States are free to opt for one of three models:

Colette Lewiner

Gas Storage

The sharp fall of the gas demand due to the economic crisis (-6.1% in 2009), combined with the increased LNG trade movements (+26.7% compared with 2008) and the rise of US unconventional gas production (50% of US gas production) has led to an exceptional gas oversupply across Europe in 2009. As a consequence, gas spot prices were below long-term oil indexed prices and the seasonal spread was squeezed, giving a false impression of cheap available supply and flexibility, thus discouraging new storage investments.

Colette Lewiner

Gas Distribution

Gas distribution activities are influenced by various factors, arising from both within and outside the industry

Colette Lewiner

Sustainable Energy and Climate Change

In Europe, official state level energy statistics are published with a one year delay so the 2009 comprehensive figures are not yet available. The global analysis refers to 2008 figures but whenever possible, a partial analysis of 2009, based on alternative or provisional data, is included.

Colette Lewiner

Finance and Valuation

In this 12

th

edition of the European Energy Markets Observatory, a sample of 41 companies has been examined (see Table 14.1), which is down from 43 covered in last year’s report, as two of the companies were acquired in 2009: Dutch Essent was bought by German RWE, and Nuon (also Dutch) was acquired by Swedish Vattenfall. The time period considered for this analysis is the full year of 2009.

Colette Lewiner

Backmatter

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