Evaluating Extinction Risks in Plant Populations

The ability to predict extinction risks is crucial to answering several recurring questions involving the conservation of plant species. Is a given reserve large enough to support a viable population? Is active intervention necessary to rescue a declining population (e.g., Burgman and Lamont 1992)? Should a small, unprotected population be ignored because it is doomed to extinction? Unfortunately, there are usually insufficient empirical data to answer these questions. One approach in the face of scarce data is the application of viability assessments based on stochastic population modeling. In this chapter, I explore stochastic viability models as a tool for gaining insight into which management regimes might best enhance population viability.