Evaluating Public Policies in Fire-affected Conservation Priority Areas of the Brazilian Pantanal

Wetlands worldwide are increasingly threatened by degradation and anthropogenic disturbances, with wildfires posing growing risks to ecosystem stability. In Brazil, the Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical wetland, has experienced intensified pressures from agricultural expansion, the spread of exotic grasses, and frequent wildfires, all of which are altering its landscape and undermining conservation efforts. In response, the Brazilian government launched the Priority Areas for Conservation and Sustainable Use Plan, designed to recover and protect ecologically significant regions. This study examines the relationship between land use and land cover changes and priority areas affected by fires in the Pantanal, with a focus on the state of Mato Grosso. Using MapBiomas data for the years 1990, 2007, and 2020 by Google Earth Engine, we applied landscape metrics to assess habitat fragmentation in burned areas. The findings indicate stark ecological changes, including a dramatic increase in burned areas within the Integral Protection Units (2695.1%) and the Sustainable Use Areas (3205.1%). Landscape metrics revealed decreased fragmentation in natural grasslands, increased fragmentation in agricultural mosaics, greater edge complexity in non-forest areas, and the consolidation of water bodies, evidence of ongoing ecological transformations. In addition, our analysis highlights limitations in the implementation of conservation policies, particularly in terms of governance and enforcement. Addressing these shortcomings will require adaptive management strategies that can respond to evolving threats, such as fire regimes and land-use changes. The study highlights the importance of long-term integrated monitoring and context-sensitive policy actions in conserving biodiversity and maintaining ecological integrity in the Pantanal.