7. Farmers’ Decision Making to Avoid Drug Residues in Dairy Cows: A Mental Modeling Case Study

The purpose of this chapter is to demonstrate the application of Mental Modeling to a technically and socially complex challenge, in this case, understanding what influences dairy farmers’ decision making regarding drug residues in dairy cows going into the food stream. Beef derived from slaughtered dairy cows is far more likely to have elevated levels of drug residues than other sources of beef. Mental Modeling was used in research supported by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM) to develop strategic risk communications plans for reducing the incidence of drug residues in dairy cows sent to slaughter. A large number of potential influences on farmer’s decision-making behavior were identified in the initial expert modeling phase of the work that reflected the complexity of the issue. The integration of a decision tree model as an important component of the overall expert model helped focus the research on key decisions farmers make in treating and culling dairy cows. A critically important finding was that dairy farmers share FDA’s goal of providing food that consumers trust as safe and high quality. The insights were used by the CVM Team to develop and implement focused risk communications strategies and messages for dairy farmers and other key stakeholders, including veterinarians.