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Fertility, Education and Macroeconomics: The Case of Japan

  • 2025
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This book is intended for those who wish to learn about research methodologies using the endogenous fertility model from the basics. The first half of the book provides comprehensive explanations of how to construct the endogenous fertility model, including detailed mathematical formulations often omitted from existing literature, so that beginner students can fully understand the contents of the book. The latter part of the book presents research papers that build on the theoretical foundations established in the first half. In this way, we set up a theoretical model using the fertility endogenization model and aim to provide a comprehensive reference for researchers and graduate students who wish to conduct rigorous analytical analysis.

Empirical analysis has become increasingly central to recent research in this field. In order to avoid empirical analysis without theory, the book is also designed as a valuable guide for establishing robust theoretical foundations in empirical studies. Thus, we have tried to make this book useful not only for theoretical analysis but also for those who conduct empirical analysis. In addition, we believe the book’s content will remain relevant over time—another distinguishing feature.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Childcare Policies and Fertility
Abstract
In advanced countries, the trend of declining birthrates and aging populations is progressing, with Japan being particularly advanced in this regard. The government aims to increase the future labor force by raising the birthrate to ensure a sustainable social security system. To achieve this, proactive childcare support policies are being implemented. In economics, how are population and birthrate endogenization modeled and analyzed? This chapter explains the methods for setting up an endogenous fertility model. Furthermore, based on this model, we will examine the factors that contribute to raising the birthrate and the impact of childcare support policies on the birthrate.
Masaya Yasuoka
Chapter 2. Childcare Service and Fertility
Abstract
Parenting can be approached either by dedicating personal time to childcare or by using childcare services available in the market. In most cases, both methods are effectively combined to raise children. When personal time is dedicated to childcare, it often comes at the expense of working hours, which constitutes the opportunity cost of parenting. On the other hand, using childcare services incurs a fee for those services. This chapter demonstrates how the wage gap between spouses affects the amount of time spent on childcare and the demand for childcare services. It reveals that narrowing the wage gap between spouses reduces the time spent on childcare but increases the demand for childcare services. Furthermore, by extending the model to a two-goods model (comprising the childcare services sector and the final goods production sector), the chapter examines the determinants of the demand for childcare services and birth rates.
Masaya Yasuoka
Chapter 3. Pay-As-You-Go Pension, Fertility, and Educational Investment
Abstract
The endogenous fertility model is often considered in conjunction with the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system. This is because, in a PAYG pension system, the birth rate affects the rate of return on pensions. In addition to the birth rate, the income level of the working generation is also an important factor to consider in the operation of a PAYG pension system. With this in mind, this chapter examines human capital as a consideration of income levels. Human capital is generated through educational investment, and in this chapter, it is assumed to be created through educational investments in children. The objective is to examine how parents decide the number of children and the quality of children (where quality refers to the level of human capital) within the framework of the endogenous fertility model. Pension benefits can be provided through either a defined benefit or a defined contribution method. This chapter aims to clarify how the differences between these two methods of providing benefits affect the birth rate.
Masaya Yasuoka
Chapter 4. Fertility, Income Growth, and Inflation
Abstract
This chapter presents an endogenous fertility model that incorporates human capital accumulation and monetary policy within a closed economy. It subsequently examines how fertility, education investment for children, and the inflation rate are affected. The results of the theoretical analysis indicate that child allowances increase fertility but reduce educational investment. However, the effect of subsidies for educational investment on fertility and educational investment is ambiguous due to the closed economy context. Changes in fertility and income growth can influence the inflation rate through childcare policies. Additionally, an increase in the monetary stock policy promotes human capital growth by facilitating physical capital accumulation.
Masaya Yasuoka
Chapter 5. Fertility and Labor Share of Child Care Service
Abstract
Our chapter presents an examination of how preferences for rearing children affect fertility and income growth. As described in reports of the related literature, an aging society with an increase in life expectancy reduces fertility because the preference for children decreases relatively. However, in a model with the endogenous child care service price, a decrease in preference for children does not always reduce fertility because a decrease in the price of child care services raises fertility. The subsidy for child care services increases both the share of using child care service and the labor share of the child care services sector. Then, the wage rate of the child care services sector rises, too.
Masaya Shintani, Masaya Yasuoka
Chapter 6. Intergenerational Conflict in a Model of Endogenous Fertility
Abstract
This chapter considers two types of models and examines how fertility is determined. One model treats policy variables as exogenous, while the other has policy determined by a majority voting system. The former economy has a unique steady state, which can be either stable or unstable. Consequently, fertility rates either converge to or diverge from this steady state. The stability of fertility dynamics is influenced by the child allowance per child. However, in the latter economy, a high ratio of older people leads to greater allocations for pension benefits because older people have an influential voice; that is, the government must enact policies favored by older people. Conversely, if younger people have an influential voice in government policy, the government implements policies favored by the younger population, such as child allowances. This economy results in two steady states: one with low fertility and the other with high fertility. The fertility dynamics converge to the low-fertility steady state under certain conditions if the ratio of older people is high. This result illustrates the phenomenon prevailing in contemporary Japan.
Masaya Yasuoka
Chapter 7. The Effects of Admitting Immigrants on the Welfare of Each Generation of Natives: Considering the Additional Burden of Education and the Indirect Impact Through the Pension System
Abstract
This chapter examines the impact of immigrant admission on the welfare of native residents. It considers factors such as the imperfect substitutability between native and immigrant labor, the cost of educating immigrant children, and the indirect effects on the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system. Utilizing data from Japan, this study conducts a numerical analysis. The results suggest that allowing immigrants into the country, even if they are not perfectly complementary to native workers, can potentially raise the wages and overall well-being of the native population.
Masaya Yasuoka, Masatoshi Jinno
Titel
Fertility, Education and Macroeconomics: The Case of Japan
Herausgegeben von
Masatoshi Jinno
Masaya Yasuoka
Copyright-Jahr
2025
Verlag
Springer Nature Singapore
Electronic ISBN
978-981-9510-24-5
Print ISBN
978-981-9510-23-8
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-95-1024-5

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