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Water Resources Management

Erschienen in:

03.05.2017

Flood Forecasting and Decision Making in the new Millennium. Where are We?

verfasst von: Ezio Todini

Erschienen in: Water Resources Management | Ausgabe 10/2017

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Abstract

This paper reviews the development of real time flood forecasting systems from the early 1970 approaches to the recent probabilistic ones. A preliminary discussion on the motivations for developing real time flood forecasting systems is introduced to explain their evolution in the last four to five decades. It will be shown how recent probabilistic flood forecasts are more robust and effective than the traditional deterministic ones. In particular, when combined with Bayesian decision approaches, probabilistic forecasts are the most appropriate tools for rational decision making in flood warning and flood management.

Moreover, they allow taking into account the information from several models to be taken into account by combining into a unique predictive density the deterministic predictions of several hydrological or hydraulic models of a different nature, while in the multi-temporal forecasting extensions, they provide to answers questions such as: Which is the probability of overtopping a dyke in the next 24 h? When will this event be more likely to occur during the next 24 h?

The work concludes with a discussion on the still unresolved problems, namely how decisions makers can fully take advantage of the probabilistic forecasts and how these forecasts must be communicated to them in order to meet this objective.

Vorheriger Artikel Non Stationary Analysis of Extreme Events

Nächster Artikel Flood Safety versus Remaining Risks - Options and Limitations of Probabilistic Concepts in Flood Management

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Titel: Flood Forecasting and Decision Making in the new Millennium. Where are We?
verfasst von: Ezio Todini
Publikationsdatum: 03.05.2017
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
Erschienen in: Water Resources Management / Ausgabe 10/2017
Print ISSN: 0920-4741
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-1650
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1693-7

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