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2023 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

6. Forecasting from an Econometric Micromodel in the Form of a System of Interdependent Equations

verfasst von : Jerzy Witold Wiśniewski

Erschienen in: Forecasting from Multi-equation Econometric Micromodels

Verlag: Springer Nature Switzerland

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Abstract

The sixth chapter discusses the specificity of forecasting a small enterprise as an economic system. Feedback and closed cycles of connections appear in such a system. This means that the econometric model is a system of interdependent equations. The classical approach to predicting from a system of interdependent equations is to use the empirical equations of the reduced form. This paper presents an iterative forecasting method based on the structural form of the system of interdependent equations, which guarantees synchronization of forecasts. Therefore, in the first place, an iterative forecasting method based on the econometric micromodel of an enterprise with a closed cycle of relationships was presented, assuming the inertia of the system. The next step were the forecasts, obtained iteratively, while interfering in the system with the use of control variables. The last prognostic solution for the system with feedback was the forecasting of financial liquidity and the effectiveness of debt collection using earlier forecasts of variables that formed the cycle. Forecasts obtained by the iterative method guarantee synchronization in the system, while forecasts from the reduced form based on the econometric micromodel result in discrepancies, i.e. lack of synchronization.

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Fußnoten
1
When a delivery was invoiced on January 30, for instance, a payment in early March was considered to have been settled on the agreed date. Meanwhile, in statistical terms, a payment in March for a January delivery is characterized by a gap of two months.
 
2
Designation t* denotes the year number, while n* denotes the number of years taken into account.
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Wiśniewska E, Wiśniewski JW (2007) Ekonometryczne modelowanie płynności finansowej małego przedsiębiorstwa. In: D. Zarzecki (ed) Zarządzanie finansami – zarządzanie ryzykiem i kreowanie wartości, „Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego” No. 455, „Prace Instytutu Ekonomiki i Organizacji Przedsiębiorstw” No. 50, Vol. 2, Szczecin, pp 297–308 Wiśniewska E, Wiśniewski JW (2007) Ekonometryczne modelowanie płynności finansowej małego przedsiębiorstwa. In: D. Zarzecki (ed) Zarządzanie finansami – zarządzanie ryzykiem i kreowanie wartości, „Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego” No. 455, „Prace Instytutu Ekonomiki i Organizacji Przedsiębiorstw” No. 50, Vol. 2, Szczecin, pp 297–308
Zurück zum Zitat Wiśniewski JW (2011) Prediction of small business’ financial liquidity against in the background of the effectiveness of debt recovery. Econometrics 32:111–123 Wiśniewski JW (2011) Prediction of small business’ financial liquidity against in the background of the effectiveness of debt recovery. Econometrics 32:111–123
Zurück zum Zitat Wiśniewski JW (2018) Forecasting from an econometric system of interdependent equations. LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing, Saarbrücken Wiśniewski JW (2018) Forecasting from an econometric system of interdependent equations. LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing, Saarbrücken
Zurück zum Zitat Wiśniewski JW (2019) Autosynchronizacja prognoz w mikromodelu ekonometrycznym o zamkniętym cyklu powiazań. In: Batóg B (ed) Mikroekonometria. Teoria i praktyka. DIFIN, Warszawa, pp 123–147 Wiśniewski JW (2019) Autosynchronizacja prognoz w mikromodelu ekonometrycznym o zamkniętym cyklu powiazań. In: Batóg B (ed) Mikroekonometria. Teoria i praktyka. DIFIN, Warszawa, pp 123–147
Metadaten
Titel
Forecasting from an Econometric Micromodel in the Form of a System of Interdependent Equations
verfasst von
Jerzy Witold Wiśniewski
Copyright-Jahr
2023
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-27492-3_6

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