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2023 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

5. Forecasting from Recursive Econometric Micromodels

verfasst von : Jerzy Witold Wiśniewski

Erschienen in: Forecasting from Multi-equation Econometric Micromodels

Verlag: Springer Nature Switzerland

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Abstract

Three empirical recursive multi-equation models are presented. The chain procedure of building forecasts from the medium-sized enterprise model, which consists of seven stochastic equations, is presented. Chain prediction alternated with sequential prediction. The second recursive model consists of three stochastic equations. It describes the costs of an enterprise selling sports equipment that is listed on the stock exchange. The procedure of building quarterly forecasts together with the assessment of their admissibility was presented. The third recursive model characterizes the payment card market in China. The links between the most important variables in the Chinese model of the payment card market were characterized. The procedure for building quarterly forecasts for this market, described by seven endogenous variables, is also presented.

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Fußnoten
1
The mechanism of the dependencies between economic variables in a large and medium-sized enterprise can vary in detail, depending on the company’s industry affiliation, the country in which it operates, and many other characteristics. Figure 3.1 shows universal, general dependencies in this category of enterprises, particularly those of industrial character.
 
2
The hypothetical model of a medium-sized enterprise has to be adopted from the work: Wiśniewski (2016: 52 et seq.).
 
3
A Chinese payment card user has—in a statistical sense—much easier access to non-cash POS payments than a Polish user, for instance. At the end of 2018, there were 1380 card-payment-accepting POSs per one million payment cards in Poland, while in China, there were 46,622, respectively (Wiśniewski et al. 2018).
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Forecasting from Recursive Econometric Micromodels
verfasst von
Jerzy Witold Wiśniewski
Copyright-Jahr
2023
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-27492-3_5

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